Tennessee Titans general manager Ran Carthon will have his work cut out for him in his first offseason with the team. Not only do the Titans need to make major improvements in several areas, they also have to make decisions on their own pending free agents.
Tennessee’s list of pending free agents includes 34 players, with about half of them (18) coming from the defensive side of the ball. No doubt the biggest name of the group is linebacker David Long.
Long has developed into a very good player over four seasons, which flies in the face of what typical sixth-round picks become. However, Long does come with some concerns, and namely his injury history.
So, will the Titans bring Long back? Well, that depends.
We’ll talk about that, as well as make predictions for the fates of Long and the rest of the Titans’ pending free agents on defense. We’ll cover the offensive side of the ball next week.
LB David Long
There’s no question how important Long is to this defense, but injury issues remain a concern with him, which will likely hurt his value on the open market.
Pro Football Focus projects he’ll receive a four-year deal worth $55 million, while Spotrac is on the opposite end of the spectrum, projecting a two-year, $9.8 million contract for the 2019 sixth-round pick.
If it’s the former, Long will not be back in Nashville, as he simply isn’t worth that kind of money thanks to his injury issues and lackluster coverage skills that, to be fair, have gotten better over the last few years.
But if it’s the latter then the Titans would be crazy not to re-sign him. I think Long’s deal will land somewhere in between the projections of PFF and Spotrac at around $8-10 million per max.
I’m not sure the Titans will even be open to that price range after head coach Mike Vrabel basically called out Long for being a repeat offender with soft-tissue injuries.
Mike Vrabel mentioned Kristian Fulton and David Long Jr as soft tissue injury repeat offenders when he was asked how the #Titans have had injuries pile up. Said he wants them to find ways to avoid those soft tissue injuries.
— TURRON DAVENPORT (@TDavenport_NFL) January 9, 2023
Ultimately, I think Long and the Titans find a middle ground at a reasonable price and get something done to keep him in Nashville.
Prediction: Long re-signs
DL Teair Tart (RFA)
Bringing Tart back is a no-brainer after the 2020 UDFA has developed into a good, impact starter upfront for Tennessee over three seasons. Making things easier is the fact that he’s a restricted free agent, which will allow the Titans to match any offer he receivers from another team.
He’ll be due a raise after making $895,000, though, but it’s well-deserved and shouldn’t be more than a few million.
Prediction: Tart re-signs
DL DeMarcus Walker
Walker was a revelation for the Titans when thrust into a bigger role in 2022 due to injuries. The veteran lineman tallied a career-high seven sacks, and his 10 tackles for loss was tops on the team. Those numbers are made more impressive by the fact that Walker played just 37 percent of snaps.
Coming off the best season of his career, the 28-year-old is going to garner a raise from someone after making just $1.1 million last season, but it’s doubtful he gets anything close to starter money.
As long as his asking price isn’t crazy, the Titans should definitely bring Walker back, and I think they ultimately do.
Prediction: Walker re-signs
S A.J. Moore
Moore played just five snaps in Week 1 before suffering a season-ending ankle injury. With the team trying to turn over a new leaf after the injury issues of the past few years, it’s doubtful Moore is back in Nashville.
Prediction: Moore isn’t re-signed
CB Lonnie Johnson Jr.
Thanks to an injury-riddled secondary, Johnson saw some significant action in some games in 2022. He didn’t really do anything to stand out, so his return is a 50/50 proposition.
I think Tennessee brings him back to compete for a roster spot in training camp, which he’ll have a decent chance to secure.
Prediction: Johnson re-signs
LB Dylan Cole
Cole was thrust into a starting role in 2022 due to injuries to Long and Zach Cunningham, and while he didn’t play well in that role, that was never the reason Tennessee brought him in.
The reason was special teams, where Cole remains an assassin. With head coach Mike Vrabel’s emphasis on special teams, he’s a good bet to re-sign in Nashville for a third season. Let’s just hope he doesn’t have to start again.
Prediction: Cole re-signs
CB Terrance Mitchell
Mitchell’s game-sealing interception in Week 10 against the Denver Broncos was the highlight of what was otherwise a poor year for the veteran, who stepped into a bigger role than should ever be asked of him.
Even if the Titans bring him back, he’ll be hard-pressed to make the roster out of training camp, unless there are injuries. Ultimately, I think the Titans pass.
Prediction: Mitchell isn’t re-signed
DL Mario Edwards
Brought in prior to Week 4, Edwards proved to be a nice depth piece for the Titans and played a fairly large on a weekly basis. The veteran finished with three sacks, four tackles for loss and 11 QB hits.
Tennessee should be interested in bringing Edwards back as a depth piece once again, and I think that happens.
Prediction: Edwards re-signs
LB Andre Smith
Smith was strictly a special teamer for the Titans, so his return will be dependent upon how much Tennessee liked him there.
Total shot in the dark: Smith is with the Titans in training camp.
Prediction: Smith re-signs
DL Da'Shawn Hand
Hand played two snaps on defense in Week 1 before succumbing to a season-ending injury. With a fairly checkered past with injuries, Hand isn’t brought back.
Prediction: Hand isn’t re-signed
CB Greg Mabin
Another one of those “meh” pending free agents, Mabin has been around the team for multiple years now. At best, he’s brought back to compete for a roster spot in training camp. Chalk Mabin up as a tentative re-sign.
Prediction: Mabin re-signs
OLB Tarell Basham
If Bud Dupree gets cut, the Titans will have just two true outside linebackers on their roster in Harold Landry, who is coming off a torn ACL, and Rashad Weaver, who the jury is still very much out on.
Knowing their need for more bodies at the position, Basham gets a look from the Titans in training camp, but he’s no lock to make the roster.
Prediction: Basham re-signs
S Andrew Adams
Adams performed admirably as a backup with Amani Hooker sidelined for half the season, but the veteran defensive back suffered his own injury that ended his 2022 campaign early.
And unfortunately, it was reportedly a serious one, with Adams suffering a torn patellar tendon that will likely cost him time in 2023, also.
With that being the case, the Titans will not bring him back initially, but don’t rule out a reunion between the two sides once Adams is fully healthy during the season.
Prediction: Adams isn’t re-signed
DB Davontae Harris
Harris appeared in six games, but only played on special teams. He was a desperation add with so many injuries to the secondary, so it’s doubtful he’ll return in 2023. If he does, it’ll be as a camp body.
Prediction: Harris isn’t re-signed
LB Joe Jones
Jones saw some snaps on defense in 2022, but was mostly on special teams. His familiarity with the team will open the door for him to have a shot to make the roster in 2023.
Prediction: Jones re-signs
DB Joshua Kalu
Kalu is a nice depth piece who can play both out of the slot, at safety, and as a special teamer, and he knows the team and system quite well. At minimum, the Titans bring him back to compete for a roster spot, and it’s very possible he’s on the 53-man roster when it’s all said and done.
Prediction: Kalu re-signs
DL Kevin Strong
The most eventful thing to happen to Strong in 2022 was his blunder against the Bengals. Other than that, he hasn’t done much to stand out in Nashville over the last two seasons, which is to be expected since he’s a backup.
That said, Strong is a solid camp body to have around and someone who will compete for a roster spot. He comes back in 2023, but his spot on the 53-man roster is far from certain.
Prediction: Strong re-signs
DL Naquan Jones (ERFA)
Jones went from looking like he’d compete with Tart for starters snaps at the start of 2022, to being nearly irrelevant by the end of it, which was disappointing after Jones showed flashes in 2021.
The 2021 UDFA is an exclusive rights free agent, which means the Titans only have to extend a qualifying offer to bring him back, and that offer is likely to come in at the league minimum.
With him being an ERFA and so cheap, look for the Michigan State product to return in 2023.
Prediction: Jones is re-signed
