As the nation gears up for Election Day, pre-election voting data provides insights into the voting patterns of Americans leading up to November 5. With over 78 million ballots already cast in 47 states and the District of Columbia, a clearer picture emerges of who is choosing to vote early this year.
Compared to the pandemic-era 2020 election, there has been a decrease in the overall number of voters opting for pre-election voting. While in 2020, early voting accounted for roughly 70% of all votes cast, this year, it is expected to make up closer to 50% of the total ballots, aligning more with the 2022 midterm election trends.
Despite the overall decline in pre-election voting, some states have seen an increase in early in-person voting compared to 2020. States like North Carolina and Georgia witnessed record numbers of voters participating in early in-person voting, although the total pre-election voting numbers were lower due to fewer individuals choosing to vote by mail.
One notable shift is the increased participation of Republicans in pre-election voting this year. The Trump campaign's efforts to encourage early and mail-in voting among Republicans have resulted in a narrowing of the partisan gap. Registered Democrats have cast 37% of pre-election ballots, while registered Republicans have cast 35%, marking a significant change from the 2020 election where Democrats held a 12-percentage point lead.
In key battleground states, Republicans have made up a larger share of the pre-election vote compared to 2020, while Democrats have seen a decrease in their share. Despite this, recent polling data indicates that Vice President Kamala Harris is leading among voters who have already cast their ballots in these states.
Gender disparities in early voting have also been observed, with more women than men casting their votes early in states like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The gender gap, while still present, has slightly narrowed compared to previous elections, with women making up a majority of early voters in several states.
As the nation awaits the final tally of pre-election votes and prepares for Election Day, these trends provide valuable insights into the evolving dynamics of voter behavior in the lead-up to the 2024 election.
