After a bruising fortnight of political turmoil, market panic and vicious Tory party infighting, Thursday offers something of a perhaps unexpected respite for Britain’s embattled prime minister, Liz Truss: a European summit in the gothic and baroque splendour of Prague Castle.
Truss is attending the first meeting of the European Political Community (EPC), a new group proposed by the EU but set to include nearly every country on the continent, barring Russia and Belarus. This new geopolitical talking shop will discuss the war in Ukraine, but also how disparate countries can work together on common interests such as energy. Expected to attend are the 27 EU member states plus 17 non-EU countries, from Azerbaijan to Iceland.
An ardent convert to Brexit, Truss remains sceptical about an idea first proposed by the French president, Emmanuel Macron. But she thinks there are several reasons to go: the meeting is seen as mark of unity in support of Ukraine against Russia, as well as a chance to discuss topics such as energy prices or migration with European neighbours. Spending a day in Prague Castle mingling with leaders from across the continent is also less likely to generate unwelcome headlines or backbench sniping than a trip to Brussels.
British diplomats have been reassured that the EU is not going to dominate the body. London has even offered to host the next meeting, although it faces competition from Moldova, one of the countries hardest hit by the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Pierre Vimont, a veteran French diplomat who ran the EU’s foreign service from 2010 to 2015, told the Guardian the first meeting would be a chance to exchange ideas about what the new political grouping should be, without the pressure of having to agree an official communique. He added: “I think then the European Union should not try to take control of this. It should allow it to be more of a political platform where geopolitical issues can be discussed.”
Such an approach would reassure the British, but also nine countries that have filed applications for EU membership and want to avoid creating a substitute for joining the club. Neither the UK, nor Ukraine, would accept the EPC as a permanent waiting room for would-be EU members.
For Truss, it is an awkward moment to make her prime ministerial debut on the European political stage, after a slew of negative headlines about her “catastrophic” start as prime minister. In comments before the government U-turn on unfunded tax cuts for the wealthy eased market pressure, the EU economy commissioner, Paolo Gentiloni, said the British experience was “a lesson for any government”.
“It is not for me to give lessons to the UK,” he told the Guardian. “I would simply say that the reaction of the markets over the past week holds a lesson for any government. And that is that in these times of extreme uncertainty, decisions must be carefully designed and communicated so as to reassure and not increase volatility.”
Truss remains the leader of one of the largest non-EU countries at the Prague meeting and the UK has won credit in Brussels as a strong supporter of Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who will address the gathering via a video link. Truss will be one of four non-EU leaders to speak at the opening plenary, along with Zelenskiy and the prime ministers of Norway and Albania. One EU diplomat said it was welcome that Truss would meet her EU counterparts out of “the shadow of Brexit”, expressing the hope that “maybe it will mend those wounds that have been created on both sides because of Brexit”.
Nobody, however, expects the gathering to resolve deep and lingering post-Brexit conflicts. “The EPC cannot be a substitute for the natural course of exchanges between the EU and Great Britain on issues directly related to the post-Brexit difficulties,” Vimont said. “But it’s a nice political platform where people can talk to each other, and that can always be useful.”
The Prague summit is just one more positive wind acting on EU-UK relations. Antagonism over the contested Northern Ireland bill has been paused as the legislation makes slow progress in the House of Lords, a timetable that both EU and British diplomats think creates a positive space to revive talks. Also easing tensions, the arch Brexiter Steve Baker, now a junior minister for Northern Ireland, apologised to the EU and Ireland for his behaviour during the Brexit negotiations. Ireland’s taoiseach, Micheál Martin, said his comments were “honest” and “very helpful”.
But clouds remain on the horizon. Fabian Zuleeg, who leads the European Policy Centre thinktank in Brussels, said any suggestion the Prague summit could lead to a reset in EU-UK relations was “overburdening” one day of diplomacy in the Czech capital. EU diplomats are wary of reading too much into the apology from Baker, who also said the government remained determined to get rid of trade barriers between Great Britain and Northern Ireland – barriers created by the Brexit agreement signed by Boris Johnson in 2019. The British government is understood not to have changed its position on the protocol, including the aim of removing the European court of justice, a red line for the EU.
Unless Baker’s apology was accompanied by “a willingness to compromise on the hardline approach which has been taken by the government, I don’t see that it will lead to progress”, Zuleeg said. “I think the proof will be in the negotiations [on the protocol] themselves.” He said he hoped that “given all the turmoil which the new government has gotten into, maybe there will be a wish not to add further turmoil” by starting a conflict with the EU. “But then politics has often trumped economics when it comes to Brexit,” he added.
Since the Brexit vote, the EU has dealt with four British prime ministers in six years and officials insist they are not fazed by the latest round of Tory party infighting. “It’s always in our minds, but I wouldn’t say there are going to be huge policy changes,” one official said. “The government has been unstable for a long time and it’s not as if we are going to rip up our position on the protocol.”
When Truss returns from Prague, the mood music might have improved, but a lasting improvement to EU-UK relations means returning once again to Brexit and Northern Ireland.
