The fundamental risk in Thailand's election this Sunday is that ruling incumbents, spearheaded by coup-maker-cum-prime minister Prayut Chan-o-cha and underpinned by the powers-that-be, are headed for a big loss. Yet they are unlikely to go away without distortion, subversion, and confrontation, as has been the case in the recent past. Unless the poll results are clear and unassailable, it is likely that more funny business will be put in motion after the election.
Although over 60 parties are battling for the 500-seat lower House, six will garner the lion's share. These are lined up between the coalition government -- mainly the Palang Pracharath (PPRP), United Thai Nation (UTN), Bhumjaithai (BJT), and Democrat parties -- and the opposition Pheu Thai (PTP) and Move Forward (MFP) parties, excluding smaller parties which are likely to grab just a handful of seats, such as Chartthaipattana, Thai Sang Thai, Prachachart and the Thai Liberal Party.
