If this year’s Six Nations follows the recent pattern then it is shaping up to finish with another grand slam. It would be a third in succession and history shows us every championship after a World Cup – with the exception of the Covid-hit tournament in 2020 – has ended in a clean sweep.
That is fascinating because when there is a Six Nations at the start of a World Cup cycle, every team is effectively starting from zero. Last year we had France and Ireland as the two standout teams, both very settled and looking to fine-tune, sustain and maintain in the leadup to the World Cup. Scotland were in a similar position but then there was England and Wales, both teams were trying to play catch-up having recently appointed Steve Borthwick and Warren Gatland respectively. Italy were on the up, too.
But you can’t say that about this championship. Everyone arrives at the starting line together and while there may only be one new head coach in Italy’s Gonzalo Quesada, the fact that five teams have new captains demonstrates the sense of change.
That situation has come about because there is a large group of players who have been synonymous with the Six Nations in recent years who will not be taking part. Whether it is the retirements of Alun Wyn Jones, Dan Biggar and Johnny Sexton, the decision of Owen Farrell to make himself unavailable, Antoine Dupont’s pursuit of his Olympic dream with the France sevens team or Louis Rees-Zammit’s sudden switch to American Football, there are a host of stars missing.
On one hand, that is a shame but on the other it is an opportunity for those positions to be filled by the next wave and the next generation of players trying to take their teams forward. I also believe the Six Nations is robust enough to deal with such a list of absentees. The rivalries involved and the history of the competition mean it will not be affected.
The hardest thing for each team is finding the balance between building for the future at the start of the World Cup cycle and achieving results in the here and now. Because the Six Nations, quite simply, is not a development tool. It is the summer tours or perhaps the autumn internationals that allow coaches to put a greater emphasis on development but the demand for results is never greater than in the Six Nations.
That leads to the question of whether there will be any great changes in styles. I don’t expect radical change to come from the coaches in terms of their ideologies but the changes in personnel will inevitably lead to different approaches. For England, for example, Farrell is absent so if Marcus Smith is selected at fly-half, there will be a change to the game-plan because they are completely different players.
To what extent Borthwick leans into the current form of players for Harlequins and Northampton will determine how much he looks to evolve his England side. It’s often the case that when players come into camp with a spring in their step because things have been going well for their clubs domestically, or in Europe, it is that much easier to make the step up to international level. England already have a new look with Jamie George taking over the captaincy and that is an excellent appointment. There is not a single person in the game who is not happy for Jamie. He is so well liked, so well respected and so personable. He is honest in his appraisal of England’s performances, good and bad, and is someone who is pretty much guaranteed to start every week.
England have the opportunity to build momentum with a first match against an Italy side who really need to get a win in this competition. It can feel like that is the case every year but with the performances of Georgia and in particular Portugal in the World Cup still fresh in the minds, another winless championship and another wooden spoon would lead to louder calls for Italy to be replaced.
Before England get going in Rome, all eyes will be on France’s blockbuster meeting with Ireland on Friday night. Both sides will be desperate to get another match under their belts after their heartbreaking quarter-final defeats at the World Cup but both teams have lost players who were so influential to how they played. For France, everything went through Dupont while Sexton was the brains behind Ireland’s game-plan but neither will be on the field in Marseille. Ireland traditionally start fastest in the Six Nations – when you can take 13 players from Leinster and stick them in a green jersey it makes hitting the ground running that much easier. But having said that, France host both Ireland and England this year so they have the fixture list on their side.
Wales have a really green squad. In many ways it’s a similar situation to last year. Back then Gatland chose to blood a lot of youngsters whereas this year it’s a situation forced upon him because they have been so badly hit by injuries and retirements. Warren has a huge amount of experience and he will relish the challenge, however, and he’ll be helped by the fact that things seem to have settled down off the field this year. They start against Scotland who had a disappointing World Cup – on the back of an extremely difficult pool draw – but I do believe they have an improved squad compared to last year and will be a dangerous threat this time.
