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USA Today Sports Media Group

Sport

James Morgan

Post-spring College Football Playoff predictions

Georgia (Organization) Ohio State Football USA TODAY Sports Michigan (Organization) Ole Miss SEC LSU Carson Beck Texas

The College Football Playoff will have a new 12-team format for the 2024 college football season. The playoff will be more inclusive. Each of the winners of the Power Four conferences will receive a bye week. Additionally, the highest-ranked non-Power Four conference champion will receive a bid to the playoff. The rest of the playoff will be filled with the other seven-most highly ranked teams.

The Georgia Bulldogs are among the favorites to make the playoff. Georgia returns an elite core surrounding starting quarterback Carson Beck. Georgia is frequently penciled in as the No. 1 team in the country along with Ohio State. Other national championship contenders include Texas, Oregon and Alabama. We’d be surprised if any team outside this group won a national title, but not many folks were predicting Michigan to win the playoff a year ago. You never know what will happen in college football.

What 12 teams do we predict to make the playoff? How will the playoff unfold? We use betting odds to aid our conference champion and playoff picks.

12. Memphis Tigers

The Memphis Tigers return star quarterback Seth Henigan, so we are picking Memphis to be the non-Power Four at-large bid for the playoff over Boise State and Liberty, who have the same national title odds. Henigan is one of the nation’s leading returning passers.

The Tigers are coming off a 10-3 season and are ready to make some noise in 2024. Memphis isn’t built to win at Texas in the opening round of the playoff.

National championship odds: +50,000

11. Michigan Wolverines

Michigan makes the playoff over Notre Dame, who has similar national title odds at +2,200. The Wolverines lost over 10 players to the 2024 NFL draft including quarterback J.J. McCarthy. Michigan also lost head coach Jim Harbaugh to the NFL.

The Wolverines have games against Ohio State, Texas and Oregon this fall. Michigan probably has to win one of those three to make the playoff. We think the Wolverines’ defense is good enough for Michigan to handle most opponents it faces.

National championship odds: +2,500

10. Penn State Nittany Lions

The 12-team playoff is built to reward a team like Penn State that is consistently solid. However, quarterback Drew Allar and company aren’t going to win a road game at Alabama, so we have the Nittany Lions losing in the first round.

National championship odds: +2,000

9. LSU Tigers

It is a bit surprising to see LSU as such a high seed. The Tigers will be playing better on the defensive side of the ball if they end up making the playoff. LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier could be the Tigers next Heisman candidate.

National championship odds: +1,700

8. Ole Miss Rebels

Ole Miss or Missouri could both sneak into the playoff out of the SEC. The Rebels have better odds than the Tigers and only face three SEC powers in 2024 (Georgia, LSU and Oklahoma). Ole Miss has two of these games at home and we think the Rebels will finish the year 10-2 and will host LSU in a playoff game.

National championship odds: +1,500

7. Alabama Crimson Tide

Alabama is the team that none of the top two seed wants to be matched up against. The Crimson Tide have more talent than many of the teams seeded ahead of them. Quarterback Jalen Milroe is capable of leading this Alabama team to a title.

National championship odds: +1,400

6. Oregon Ducks

Oregon’s opening round match-up at home against Michigan would be a fun one to watch. The Ducks have a challenging schedule in their first season in the Big Ten, but we think quarterback Dillon Gabriel and Oregon are up to the task.

National championship odds: +850

5. Texas Longhorns

Whoever ends up being the No. 5 seed will waltz over the No. 12 seed in a home game. That’s just the reality of how the playoff is structured now. Quarterback Quinn Ewers and Texas will be a tough out for anyone in the playoff. The Texas-Georgia game on Oct. 19 could go a long ways in deciding who wins the SEC.

National championship odds: +800

4. Utah Utes

Utah and Kansas State (+7,000) have the similar national title odds. We like the Utes to win the Big 12 due to the return of quarterback Cam Rising. Kansas State’s starting quarterback Will Howard transferred to Ohio State, so the Wildcats don’t have quite as much continuity as Utah.

National championship odds: +6,000

3. Florida State Seminoles

Florida State finally makes the playoff after being snubbed a year ago. The Seminoles win the ACC over Clemson, but aren’t as talented as they were a year ago. The 2024 edition of Florida State is probably not a national championship contender, but will be well-positioned with a bye week as the ACC’s top team.

National championship odds: +2,800

2. Ohio State Buckeyes

Ohio State is the only other team outside of Georgia that we’ve seen as a preseason No. 1. The Buckeyes return a stacked defense and are our pick to win the Big Ten. We think Ohio State will have best defense in the country. ESPN’s SP+ rates the Buckeyes’ defensive unit as best in the country. The only question is can the Buckeyes get consistent play out of Kansas State transfer quarterback Will Howard?

National championship odds: +440

1. Georgia Bulldogs

Georgia has arguably the top returning quarterback in the country in Carson Beck. Beck returns a deep wide receiver core. The Dawgs have plenty of prowess in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Georgia is looking to win its third national championship in four years and has playmakers at every position on offense and defense.

National championship odds: +300