This blog is closing, our wrap of the night is here:
Summary of the evening
Portugal held a snap general election today.
The vote was triggered by the socialist prime minister, António Costa, resigning in November after an investigation was launched into alleged illegalities in his administration’s handling of large green investment projects.
The centre-right Democratic Alliance – an electoral platform made up of the large Social Democratic party (PSD) and two smaller conservative parties – took a lead in early exit polls.
As results came in, the gap between the centre-right alliance and the Socialist party narrowed, putting the centre-right and centre-left neck and neck, though the centre-right alliance maintained a small lead.
The far-right Chega party of André Ventura saw a huge surge, raising the prospect that it could play a key role in the formation of a new centre-right administration.
Figures from far-right parties in France, Spain, Germany and Hungary congratulated Chega on its performance.
Although the centre-right leader Luís Montenegro has explicitly ruled out any deals with Chega because of what he calls Ventura’s “often xenophobic, racist, populist and excessively demagogic” views, he is now likely to come under considerable pressure from his own party to do so to help the PSD into government.
A small portion of votes has yet to be counted and will be tallied over the next hours.
Updated
Centre-right and centre-left neck and neck as counting nears completion
With 98% of results counted, the centre-right is holding only a very slim lead.
The Democratic Alliance is at 29.6%, the Socialist party at 28.7% and the far-right Chega at 18.1%.
Updated
With close to all votes counted, here are the latest numbers:
Democratic Alliance: 29.8%
Socialist party: 28.7%
Chega: 18.2%
Updated
Expresso reports that with 98% of the votes counted, the far-right Chega party has passed one million votes, electing 37 deputies thus far.
Portugal's centre-right coalition on course for narrow victory as far-right makes gains
Portugal’s centre-right is on course to narrowly defeat the incumbent Socialists but fall well short of a majority in a closely fought snap general election in which the far-right Chega party looks set to finish third, almost tripling its share of the vote and becoming a potential kingmaker.
With 95% of Sunday’s votes counted, the Democratic Alliance – an electoral platform made up of the large Social Democratic party (PSD) and two smaller conservative parties – was first with 30.8% of the vote, followed by the Socialist party on 28.4%.
Chega was in third place with 18.6%, raising the prospect that it could play a key role in the formation of a new centre-right administration. It is a huge surge for the populist, far-right party, which was founded five years ago by André Ventura, a former TV football pundit who was once a rising star in the PSD. The party broke through in the 2019 election, attracting 1.3% of the vote and gaining its first MP in Portugal’s 230-seat assembly. Three years later, it took 7.2% of the vote and won 12 seats.
Although the PSD’s leader, Luís Montenegro, has explicitly ruled out any deals with Chega because of what he calls Ventura’s “often xenophobic, racist, populist and excessively demagogic” views, he is now likely to come under considerable pressure from his own party to reach an agreement with the far-right party to help the PSD into government.
Even with the backing of the smaller centre-right Liberal Initiative – which was on course to finish fourth on around 4.5% – any potential minority government led by the Democratic Alliance would probably still have to rely on Chega’s support to pass legislation, leaving its stability in the hands of the far right.
Updated
“Congratulations Andre Ventura for that great result,” wrote Santiago Abascal, the leader of Spain’s far-right Vox.
Enhorabuena a nuestros vecinos y amigos portugueses.
— Santiago Abascal 🇪🇸 (@Santi_ABASCAL) March 10, 2024
Enhorabuena Andre Ventura por ese gran resultado.@AndreCVentura https://t.co/fP0VJ2V7D8 pic.twitter.com/73hk1x0Ad7
Congratulations for the far-right Chega have also arrived from Hungary.
Ádám Samu Balázs, head of the international secretariat for Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party, called the results a “great breakthrough” for “our friend and ally” André Ventura.
🇭🇺🤝🇵🇹 Great breakthrough in #Portugal for @PartidoCHEGA, congratulations! The fight of our friend and ally @AndreCVentura against the globalist left and for the protection of national sovereignty and the defence of #Europe is exemplary. The next stop: #Brussels. #Fidesz… pic.twitter.com/LngwLFLjgl
— Ádám Samu Balázs (@AdamSamuBalazs) March 10, 2024
“Without a left- or a right-wing majority that excludes Chega, the traditional patterns of alternation in government are no longer viable,” writes political scientist Vicente Valentim.
The Portuguese election marks the end of bipartism, as the far-right CH grows dramatically.
— Vicente Valentim (@ValentimVicente) March 10, 2024
Without a left- or a right-wing majority that excludes CH, the traditional patterns of alternation in government are no longer viable.
I see two main possibilities going forward:
1/4
Here are the latest figures, with counting still under way
Centre-right Democratic Alliance: 31%
Socialist party: 28.6%
Far-right Chega: 18.8%
Updated
Jordan Bardella, president of France’s National Rally, has joined other voices across Europe’s far-right in congratulating Chega.
Les Portugais défendent leur identité et leur prospérité, et balayent les socialistes corrompus ! Félicitations à @AndreCVentura et à son jeune parti qui réalisent une très belle percée.
— Jordan Bardella (@J_Bardella) March 10, 2024
Amis de Chega, rendez-vous ensemble au Parlement européen au lendemain du 9 juin ! 🇫🇷🇵🇹 pic.twitter.com/ktF4dIdqeV
Harald Vilimsky, member of the European parliament for the Freedom Party of Austria, has also congratulated Chega.
Gratulation nach Portugal an Chega! #idgroup https://t.co/FsJy4xPbSO
— Harald Vilimsky (@vilimsky) March 10, 2024
Maximilian Krah, member of the European parliament for Alternative for Germany, said Chega is on the way to a “fantastic success”.
Unsere Partner der @PartidoCHEGA in #Portugal auf dem Weg zu einem grandiosen Erfolg: ca 20%! Damit ist in Portugal erstmals seit 1974 eine rechte Mehrheit greifbar. https://t.co/iQqBAHignY
— Dr. Maximilian Krah MdEP (@KrahMax) March 10, 2024
Updated
Valérie Hayer, president of Renew Europe, has congratulated the small Liberal Initiative party.
Félicitations à @LiberalPT qui confirme, trois ans après ses premières élections, son ancrage durable dans la vie politique du Portugal.
— Valérie Hayer (@ValerieHayer) March 10, 2024
Plein soutien à nos amis portugais pour les élections européennes de juin !
Where does the counting stand?
It’s about 9:30pm local time.
Based on votes counted thus far, the centre-right Democratic Alliance is at 31.4%.
The Socialist party is at 28.7%, and the far-right Chega is at 19.1%.
Thank you to the many readers who shared their thoughts.
Derek, a British citizen living in Estoril, says: “I love Portugal but it has real problems…Too many young people leave so we need to make Portugal more attractive so that they stay! So a new start is needed whether from the right or the left.”
One Portuguese reader writes in: “André Ventura and the far-right being elevated into a kingmaker position like this is an absolute disaster, and is a dire sign regarding the future of the country.”
Updated
The far-right Chega is celebrating its results tonight.
In 2022, the party took about 7%. Now, it could take about 19%.
Updated
Here are the latest numbers, as counting continues.
Here are images from the centre-right Democratic Alliance’s election night headquarters.
Updated
Centre-right in lead as vote count continues
With 69% of the votes counted, the centre-right is in the lead.
Democratic Alliance: 31,44%
Socialist party: 29,11%
Far-right Chega: 19,23%
Updated
The counting of votes is under way.
Updated
Here’s a photo of far-right Chega supporters reacting to the first exit polls.
Updated
Reader weighs in
Luis, a reader, writes in that “Portugal’s problem is not the far right but that, like in Greece, the succession of socialist governments brought the country to its knees.”
What do you think? Send comments to lili.bayer@theguardian.com.
Centre-right parties on course to narrowly defeat incumbent socialists in Portugal
Exit polls suggest a coalition of Portuguese centre-right parties is on course to narrowly defeat the incumbent socialists but fall well short of a majority in Sunday’s closely fought snap general election, with the far-right Chega party looking set to double its share of the vote and finish third.
Three polls, published shortly after voting ended at 8pm local time, suggest the Democratic Alliance – an electoral platform made up of the large Social Democratic party (PSD) and two smaller conservative parties – is set to finish ahead of the Socialist party (PS).
Chega is projected to come in third with a massively increased share of the vote, raising the prospect that it could act as a king-maker in the formation a new, centre-right administration.
Updated
And here are Pitagorica’s projections, for CNN Portugal and TVI:
Centre-right Democratic Alliance between 28% and 33%
Socialist party between 24.5% and 29.5%
Far-right Chega between 16.6% and 21.6%
Updated
A second exit poll also puts the centre-right in the lead.
This poll, conducted by Cesop for RTP, shows the following:
Centre-right Democratic Alliance (AD): between 29% and 33%, and between 83 and 91 deputies
Socialist party (PS): between 25% and 29%, between 69 and 77 deputies
Far-right Chega: between 14% and 17%, between 40 and 46 deputies
Liberal Initiative: between 5% and 7%, between 7 and 10 deputies
Left Bloc: between 4% and 6%, between 5 and 7 deputies
Updated
Exit poll puts centre-right in lead in Portugal
A first exit poll, carried out for SIC and Expresso, shows the following:
Centre-right Democratic Alliance (AD): 27.6 to 31.8% (with 77 to 89 deputies)
Socialist party (PS): 24.2 to 31.8% (68 to 80 deputies)
Far-right Chega: 16.6 to 20.8% (44 to 54 deputies)
Liberal Initiative: 4.1 to 7.3% (6 to 12 deputies)
Left Bloc: 3.2 to 6.4% (3 to 9 deputies)
Updated
Reader’s perspective
José Pedro, a reader, has sent in a comment:
I honestly don’t know what I’m more afraid of - a xenophobic and racist far-right party exerting pressure on a democratic right-wing party, or if a government agreement with the Liberals who pose a threat to a worsening of the public services that are available to a big portion of the country only because they are free - health and education.
Ultimately, the parties who have ruled the country since the people have taken the power back from a dictatorship need to acknowledge how their failure at managing the public sector and giving a response to the very real concerns of the general public, whether they were on the agenda or not, is what is fuelling the far right. They need to step up how they govern and how they do politics, regardless of who wins tonight.
What are your thoughts? Send comments to lili.bayer@theguardian.com.
What's at stake in Portugal's election?
Portugal, which in April celebrates half a century since its 1974 Carnation Revolution ended almost as many years of authoritarian rule, has so far escaped the rising influence of the far right seen in other EU member states from Finland to Italy.
A strong showing by the far-right Chega party would mark the end of a Portuguese exception. Far-right populists are in ruling coalitions in Italy and Finland and propping up a rightwing government in Sweden.
Despite setbacks last year in elections in Spain and Poland, a far-right party is on track to win this autumn in Austria, while Germany’s AfD – although slipping since a recent “mass deportation” scandal – and France’s National Rally (RN) are at polling highs.
In European parliament elections in June, radical-right parties are on course to finish first in nine countries including Austria, France and Poland, and second or third in another nine including Germany, Spain, Portugal and Sweden.
Relatively high turnout in Portuguese election
Turnout by this afternoon has been higher than during the same time of day in the previous election, according to official data.
Updated
How is Portugal's election different from previous ones?
We asked Marco Lisi, an associate professor at Nova University Lisbon’s political science department, about the key things to watch in this election.
“Several factors distinguish this election from the previous one. Firstly, the presence of new leaders, particularly within the two major parties (PS and PSD), adds a fresh dynamic,” he said.
Lisi also pointed to the impact of corruption scandals.
“Corruption, a key factor in the downfall of the previous government, has been a prominent issue in this campaign. This is probably one of the key factors that explain the increase of the far right’s score (according to available opinion polls),” he said.
The issues in this campaign also differed from earlier elections, according to Lisi.
“The primary concerns for Portuguese citizens during the campaigns were public services (health, housing, transportation, education), welfare reforms and inflation. However, during the last two weeks of the campaigns right-wing parties have successfully shaped the agenda on issues other than socioeconomic ones,” he said.
What will the centre-right do?
Addressing the issue of what could come after the election, Lisi said:
The establishment of a cordon sanitaire against Chega seems unlikely, as the moderate right is likely to pursue all available avenues to attain power, while the left aims to polarise the discourse by leveraging the radical right (and its potential alliance with PSD) as a strategic tool to appeal to moderate voters.
Nonetheless, there is a lack of consensus within the main center-right party regarding the strategy to adopt towards Chega.
Updated
Centre-right 'reckless' in dealing with far-right, left-green politician says
Rui Tavares, spokesperson for the left-green Livre party, told the Guardian on Friday that the aim is to avoid the scenario of a far-right party putting pressure on the new government.
In April, we will celebrate the 50th anniversary of our democratic revolution and it has emotional elements. If on April 25 we will celebrate the democratic revolution but with a far-right party in parliament probably exerting pressure on a centre-right government, this will be the worst outcome for Portugal. So this is what we’re trying to avoid.
Tavares, a former member of the European parliament known for his work on the state of the rule of law in Hungary, said that the centre-right “in the last decade, has been at least naive, but I think that it has been reckless in dealing with the far-right.”
Luís Montenegro, the head of the centre-right Social Democratic Party, “comes across as someone actually doesn’t see the danger of the far right — which by the way, will swallow his party first,” Tavares said in a phone interview.
What’s next for Portugal’s progressives?
Speaking of the LIVRE party, which has been polling around 4%, he said “people see us as being sincere in our discourse on democracy and on the danger posed by the far right.”
He added:
I think that the progressives can still win this election … I think that we will have to engage in a reflection about what happened in the last two mandates that came out unfulfilled and that we have to renew our contract with the people.
The left wing needs to speak more about the future, needs to say what its objects of political desire are.
We are faced with the kind of politics today that are very polarised around these tactics of fear of the right wing. And I think that the left wing have had trouble in countering this. LIVRE has a specific role to play in this, with a future-oriented strategy of mobilisation.
Updated
What trends dominated the campaign?
We asked João Cancela, an assistant professor of political science at NOVA University Lisbon and visiting professor at Georgetown University, about the key trends in Portugal’s election.
Post-election questions dominate
“The period leading to the campaign and the campaign itself have not been so much centred on public policy issues but rather on the political consequences of the election itself,” Cancela said.
These questions included “what should each of the two main parties do in the election aftermath? Will the centre-right coalition negotiate with the radical right? Should the incumbent centre-left Socialist Party support an executive of the centre-right without a parliamentary majority to prevent that from happening?”
“There were endless discussions by politicians and among pundits in the months coming to the election and that has transposed into the campaign period, at the expense of concrete policy debates,” he noted.
Far-right at least partially shaping the agenda
“When policy issues were discussed, especially in the televised debates, they were more often than in previous debates about topics that are the core of the radical right agenda: security, immigration, access to public services by foreigners,” Cancela said.
“Public opinion data do not indicate that those are the most pressing issues for the population writ large, but they were nevertheless made more salient by the campaign. In that sense, Chega was at least partially successful in shaping the agenda,” he added.
He also noted that “there has been a notable absence of international and particularly European topics in the campaign.”
'People don’t want Portugal to become a one party country,' Lisbon mayor says
Carlos Moedas, the mayor of Lisbon and a member of the Social Democratic Party (PSD), told the Guardian ahead of the election that he believes the centre-right Democratic Alliance (AD) – an electoral platform made up of the PSD and two smaller parties – will emerge victorious.
In a text message on Friday, Moedas, a former European commissioner, said:
In the last 30 years the Socialist Party has been in government for 23 years. What is at stake is exactly the contrary. AD will win because people don’t want Portugal to become a one party country. Democracy is made of differences.
Asked about the far-right Chega, he said the question is “will the Socialist let the AD govern if in minority.”
Portugal’s far-right Chega party eyes kingmaker role as country goes to polls
The Portuguese left and right are braced for a tight race as the country votes in its second snap general election in three years, a closely fought contest that is also expected to result in huge gains and a possible kingmaker role for the far-right Chega party.
Today’s election was triggered by the collapse of the socialist government of António Costa, who resigned as prime minister in November amid an investigation of alleged illegalities in his administration’s handling of large green investment projects.
Costa – who had been in office since 2015 and who won a surprise absolute majority in the 2022 general election – has not been accused of any crime. He said he felt he had no choice but to resign because “the duties of prime minister are not compatible with any suspicion of my integrity”.
Voting began at 8am today and most ballot results were expected within hours of polling stations closing at 8pm local time. Voter turnout had reached 25.2% by midday, up from 23.3% at the same point during the last election.
Polls suggest the election will be a close-run affair, with only a few percentage points between the centre-right Democratic Alliance – an electoral platform made up of the large Social Democratic party (PSD) and two smaller conservative parties – and the Socialist party (PS).
A survey published on Friday, the final day of campaigning, put the Democratic Alliance on 34% and the socialists on 28%. But the poll, for the Público newspaper and the public broadcaster RTP, also suggested that socialists and other, smaller leftwing and communist parties could pull in enough votes collectively to outweigh those of the right bloc.
Much will depend on Chega, the populist, far-right party founded five years ago by André Ventura.
Read the full story here.
Welcome to the election blog
Good evening and welcome to a special edition of the Europe blog, focusing on Portugal’s election.
Stay tuned for the latest results, analysis and reactions.
And please send tips and comments to lili.bayer@theguardian.com.
