KEY POINTS
- Polymarket's figures have divided crypto – an industry known for unity and camaraderie
- Some users accused Polymarket of manipulating the numbers, and others said the figures are 'fake'
- Others noted how Trump hasn't been campaigning as much as Harris did in the past days
- Some raised the issue on Trump's age, a central aspect in Biden's run before he passed the baton to Harris
The cryptocurrency industry often connotes unity, as exhibited many times over the past few years whenever a crypto firm is at the center of a regulatory enforcement action. However, division has been rife across the space in recent days, and Polymarket, the popular decentralized prediction market platform where crypto traders bet on future events, is at the center of it all.
What is Polymarket?
"Bet on your beliefs." Polymarket's tagline is the main reason why many traders use the platform. Powered by the crypto industry's core as a movement and not just a sector, crypto voters have recently been using the platform to bet on the politicians they believe in.
Polymarket is a Polygon (Layer 1 Ethereum scaling solution) protocol-built platform that now calls itself "the world's largest prediction market."
Polymarket utilizes blockchain technology and smart contracts to ensure transparency and security as traders speculate on future events. Bettors can explore a wide range of topics across various industries such as pop culture, sports, and more.
Current presidential standings
Vice President Kamala Harris flipped the table on Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump on Friday, when she overtook the latter with a one-percent lead on the Polymarket event that asked traders who will win the 2024 presidential election.
By early Monday, Harris' lead widened by seven percentage points. Traders pushed her chances of winning up by 52%, while Trump's odds sit at 45%, marking a significant difference from when outgoing President Joe Biden was pitted against the business mogul before he withdrew from the race.
Crypto users divided over latest numbers
Crypto users on X have had mixed reactions to the Polymarket figures, with many saying there is "something going on behind the scenes," and many others insisting the numbers are correct since it has been made "clear" since last year that people want to see another candidate going up against Trump.
A Trump supporter said Polymarket numbers "are reflective not predictive, adding that it is "obviously manipulated polling." Many said prediction markets on election results "are almost worthless" regardless of who is on the lead. One user accused the platform of "posting fake poll results."
The betting markets are reflective not predictive. They are moving based off Soviet-level media propaganda and obviously manipulated polling.
— David Giglio (@DavidGiglioCA) August 10, 2024
These are random people betting that are shifting the odds with the wind. It’s not normal bookmakers setting odds based on real data.
I will never tire of saying this: Election odds markets are almost worthless, no matter who is ahead.
— Ali Minai (@barbarikon) August 10, 2024
Trump brought it upon himself?
One user viewed the numbers in a different light. He said the ex-president "fumbled" his own momentum, which was apparent in the days leading up to the Bitcoin 2024 conference, wherein many people in the crypto space hyped up his appearance at the huge event.
Trump fumbled his momentum and has refused to campaign the past few weeks while Harris has been campaigning.
— Drew (@drewdamn87) August 10, 2024
Trump is just playing golf instead of campaigning. Thats what’s going on behind the scenes.
He’s doing it to him self
The user pointed out that Trump hasn't been campaigning as much as Harris had in recent days. He said the former president was instead spending time on golf. "He's doing it to himself."
On Sunday, Harris raised $12 million in a star-studded rally in San Francisco. Some 700 people are said to have attended the event, with one long-time supporter describing the event as a "homecoming" for the Democratic presidential candidate.
A taste of his own medicine?
One user, arguing against a commenter who suggested manipulation, pointed out a matter that the Trump campaign has repeatedly used against Biden when he was still in the race: age. The user said that aside from the American people supposedly being "tired of his grievances," Trump is also "too old" like Biden.
You seem new to politics. Both Biden & Trump are too old. Trump’s policies take us backward, no one wants that. He says drill baby drill unaware the US has never drilled as much as Biden has. People are tired of his grievances.
— Melinda P. (@MLarsen26863971) August 10, 2024
Trump still has eyes on crypto
Meanwhile, it appears that even with no recent word from Trump regarding crypto, his recent show of support for the sector is still valid, at least based on the recent announcements of his two sons regarding a "huge" decentralized finance (DeFi) project.
Harris, on the other hand, has yet to publicly express her views regarding the digital assets space.
