Nawrocki ahead in presidential run-off - latest story
Jakub Krupa and Shaun Walker in Warsaw
Overnight projections from Poland’s crucial presidential run-off showed a narrow lead for the right-wing candidate Karol Nawrocki, as votes continued to be counted.
A set of preliminary results combining exit polls and counted ballots, published at 1am local time on Monday morning (midnight BST), gave Nawrocki a 51-49% lead over liberal contender Rafał Trzaskowski, an ally of the ruling government led by Donald Tusk.
Nawrocki’s lead was a dramatic reversal of projections, after an exit poll, published as voting concluded, appeared to show Trzaskowski would edge the contest with a 0.6% advantage.
A Nawrocki victory would also reinvigorate the Law and Justice party (PiS) which ruled Poland for eight years between 2015 and 2023 and clashed with Brussels overrule of law and other issues.
It would also significantly complicate the work of Tusk’s government. While the presidential role is largely ceremonial, it does have some influence over foreign and defence policy, as well as the critical power to veto new legislation. This can only be overturned with a 60% majority in parliament, which Tusk’s government does not have.
The full results are expected to be announced during the day on Monday, and the figures could change again as more votes are counted, although the pollster Ipsos claimed its final poll had a margin of error of just 0.5% for each candidate’s totals.
According to official results overnight, with ballots counted at nearly nine-tenths of polling stations, Nawrocki had 52.1% to Trzaskowski’s 47.9%.
Here is our report as of 2:30am local time in Warsaw.
Updated
A potential Nawrocki win is also likely to be welcomed by the US.
A month ago, he met US president Donald Trump at the White House, and in the last few days got public backing from Kristi Noem, the US secretary of homeland security in the Trump administration.
Speaking at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Rzeszów, Poland, Noem said:
I just had the opportunity to meet with Karol, and listen, he needs to be the next president of Poland. Do you understand me?
She then added:
Donald Trump is a strong leader for us, but you have an opportunity to have just as strong of a leader in Karol if you make him the leader of this country. You can be that shining city on a hill that the rest of Europe and the world will watch and know how strong you are.
