SNP reportedly worried they could lose Aberdeen South to Tories
The Scottish Conservatives are optimistic about their chances of winning Aberdeen South, the BBC is reporting. Tom Gordon from the Scottish Daily Mail is hearing the same thing. Paul Hutcheon from the Daily Record says the SNP, who are defending the seat, are “anxious”.
Severin Carrell described the contest in Aberdeen South in this article earlier this week.
Kemi Badenoch has said, if her party wins this byelection, it will be a vote for more oil and gas drilling in the North Sea.
On the BBC’s election programme, Jess Phillips, the former safeguarding minister, said her ideal outcome from Makerfield would be for Andy Burnham to win and for Keir Starmer to be given the chance to make a “dignified” exit. She said she did not want to see “chaos”, with lots of ministers resigning.
Phillips resigned as a minister last month saying she wanted Starmer to quit.
Reform UK's Sarah Pochin defends video urging England team to 'keep winning' to stop domestic violence escalating
Sarah Pochin, the Reform UK MP, is at the Makerfield count on behalf of her party tonight and she has had to take questions about this video she posted on social media earlier.
In it she says:
England won the football last night.
And thank god they did because, on the occasions that England lose their football matches, the incidents of domestic violence go through the roof.
So, boys. Keep winning.
Asked about this on Sky News, Pochin stressed her record as a magistrate dealing with domestic violence and defended the point she was making – that this is a link between teams losing, and increased incidents of domestic violence.
But she did not seem to grasp that people are criticising her for not explicitly condemning the abusers, and instead suggesting it was somehow the England football team’s responsibility to prevent women being attacked.
Thangam Debbonaire, the Labour peer, was being interviewed at the same time and she told Pochin that in her remarks she “did not put responsibility on the men who do it”.
Council officials in Makerfield say they expect the result around 3am, my colleague Josh Halliday, who’s at the count, tells me.
Here are some more pictures from the count venue.
David Blunkett, the former Labour cabinet minister, has suggested that Keir Starmer should stand down after the Makerfield byelection.
In an interview on the BBC’s Newsnight, Blunkett suggested that Starmer standing aside would be the best option for the party regardless of whether Andy Burnham wins tonight or loses.
Speaking about what should happen if Burnham were to win, Blunkett said “the obvious and most beneficial outcome” would be an agreement between Starmer and Burnham about the timetable for a transition. He said Starmer himself had said politicians should “put the country first”, and he said this would be far preferable to ministers resigning to force Starmer out.
And, if Burnham were to lose, there would have to be “a complete rethink” by Labour, he said, suggesting Starmer would also have to go.
Burnham used to be Blunkett’s parliamentary private secretary and Blunkett praised him as someone who had “grown in stature” over the past 20 years.
Will Makerfield really be the most consequential byelection in British history?
The Makerfield byelection has regularly been described as potentially the most consequential byelection in British history. People have written that on the assumption that Andy Burnham will win, and that he will replace Keir Starmer as PM. While those both seem to be reasonable assumptions, in a country with a history of parliamentary government as long as Britain’s a description of any event that involves saying it is the most consequential ever is probably not strictly accurate.
Here are just a handful examples of other byelections that have been similar to this one in some respects, or highly influential.
Byelections involving potential party leaders
In Makerfield Burnham supporters think they are voting for the next Labour leader, and Keir Starmer has had to support the Labour candidate while at the same time fearing him as a rival. Neil Kinnock was in a similar position at the 1984 Chesterfield byelection, which was won by Tony Benn, hero of the Labour left. Benn might have beaten Kinnock in the Labour leadership election a year earlier had he not lost his seat in the general election. He was still seen as a rival in 1984 but the byelection win did not propel him to the leadership and, when there was a contest in 1988, Kinnock beat him easily.
William Hague, the then Tory leader, must have had similar emotions when Michael Portillo contested the 1999 Kensington and Chelsea byelection. Portillo too had missed a leadership election he might have won because he had been out of parliament in a general election. A few months later Hague promoted Portillo to shadow chancellor and deputy leader in the hope of neutralising a rival, but Portillo’s influence had peaked and in a subsequent contest he was beaten by Iain Duncan Smith.
Byelections that choose prime ministers
Makerfield might be electing not just a party leader, but a future prime minister. This is not unprecedented because at the 1963 Kinross and Perthshire byelection voters elected an actual prime minister, Alec Douglas-Home. He had been chosen by the Tories as PM three weeks earlier, but at that point he was in the Lords. Taking advantage of legislation passed to help Tony Benn give up his peerage, he quit the Lords and entered the Commons after a Scottish Tory MP (George Younger – the Josh Simons of his day) sacrificed his seat for him .
There are other byelections that have been won by people who have gone on to serve as PM (like Robert Peel and Stanley Baldwin), but in British Byelections 1769-2025, a brilliant selection of essays on this topic edited by Iain Dale, Alex Puffette argues that it was losing the 1899 Oldham byelection that was really important for Winston Churchill because it meant he was able to make his name as a star war correspondent in the Boer war which did more to benefit his career in the long run.
Byelections that bring down governments
Makerfield may lead to the replacement of Keir Starmer at PM. But it won’t bring down the government, unlike the 1922 Newport byelection that led to Conservative MPs deciding to pull the plug on the Lloyd George-led coalition. Austen Chamberlain, the Tory leader at the time, expected Labour to win, but the seat was won by an anti-coalition Unionist (Tory), and the party decided voters were fed up of the pact with the Liberals.
In more recent times the 1990 Eastbourne byelection defeat helped persuade the Tories that Margaret Thatcher had to go, and the 2022 Tiverton and Honiton byelection defeat, and the Wakefield byelection defeat on the same night, helped to finish off Boris Johnson.
Byelections that change policy
If Makerfield leads to Starmer being replaced by Burnham, government policy may change. But perhaps not be much. For a really consequential election, try going back almost 200 years to the 1828 County Clare byelection, which was won by the Irish Catholic Daniel O’Connell (later known as “the liberator”). As a Catholic, he was not allowed to take his seat in the Commons under the laws then in place. But his win led to the governmment passing Catholic emancipation, opening up most public offices to Catholics at a time when all of Ireland was ruled by London, and most of its population was barred from public life.
Updated
On Newsnight Nicholas Watt, the programme’s political editor, has said Reform UK are briefing that they think they will get their highest share of the vote in a byelection in Makerfield, beating the 39% that Sarah Pochin got when she won the Runcorn and Helsby byelection last year (by six votes).
Runcorn and Helsby may have been a record for Reform UK. But Ukip, which in many respects was its predecessor party, got 60% of the vote in the Clacton byelection in 2014.
The second Survation poll from the Makerfield byelection had Reform UK on 39% – but Labour on 49%. (See 10.39pm.)
What polls have said about likely voting in Makerfield
Robert Kenyon, the Reform UK candidate, says he is expecting a “big vote” in Makerfield. (See 10.26am.) That’s a reasonable assumption. Two years ago, when he was the party’s general election candidate, Kenyon came second here with 32% of the vote. (See 10.27pm.) This time there have been five published byelection polls, from four polling companies, and all of them show Reform UK polling well above 32%.
But they also all show Labour winning.
Here are the figures – in a chart posted by Mark Pack on his the Week in Polls Substack blog.
The reason why Reform UK can do much better than two years ago, but still lose, is because there seems to have been a lot of tactical voting – especially on the Labour/progressive side. People who may have voted Lib Dem or Green two years ago seem to have been voting Labour.
How Makerfield, Aberdeen South, and Arbroath and Broughty Ferry voted in 2024
For the record, here are the 2024 general election results in all three constituencies where byelections have taken place today.
Makerfield
Aberdeen South
Arbroath and Broughty Ferry
Reform UK's Robert Kenyon says he's confident of getting 'big vote' in Makerfield byelection
Andy Burnham has posted this message on social media.
A huge thanks to the people of the Makerfield constituency for your patience and good humour over the last five weeks. My thanks too to the many volunteers who came up to support my campaign. We ran a very positive one and can be proud of it!
Would Burnham be saying thank you to the constituency if he thought he had lost?
And here is the message from Burnham’s main rival, Robert Kenyon, the Reform UK candidate.
This photo was taken on the day I decided to stand in Makerfield.
I am confident of a big vote for Reform tonight. Thank you to everyone who placed their faith in me.
From changing boilers to changing politics, this is something I will never forget!
Deputy Labour leader Lucy Powell says Labour has spoken to 'record number of residents' in 'positive campaign'
Labour has just released this statement from Lucy Powell, the party’s deputy leader (and a friend and supporter of Andy Burnham’s), about the campaign. She said:
Our great candidate, Andy Burnham, and our fantastic Labour team have run a positive campaign focused on the people of the Makerfield constituency.
We knew this would be a tough fight, given Reform did so well here just a few weeks ago, but the Labour movement came together to show we are well up for that fight. While it will be some hours before we know the result, I want to say a huge thank you to the hundreds and hundreds of activists and volunteers who have helped with this campaign. Together, we’ve spoken to a record number of residents and shared our Labour message of hope and optimism.
Labour will continue working every day for the people of this country, putting our values into action and delivering the fairer future communities want to see.
It is hard to read much into this, but if the party was expecting to lose, there would be rather more about the “tough fight” in the statement.
The line about speaking to a “record number of residents” is no idle boast. Earlier my colleague Jessica Elgot posted these about the campaign effort today.
Never seen anything like this as a Labour ground operation. 120 contacts a minute, three campaign centres, 3000 activists.
At 6.30pm, two activists told me there is “no one left to knock.”
Burnham brings in top economists before possible leadership run
Three economic heavyweights have been brought in to advise Andy Burnham as he attempts to reassure the markets before his possible return to parliament on Friday and challenge to Keir Starmer, Rowena Mason reports.
Burnham is understood to be getting advice from Andy Haldane, a former Bank of England chief economist, as well as Richard Hughes, a former chair of the Office for Budget Responsibility and Jim O’Neill, a crossbench peer and former Treasury minister who worked on George Osborne’s Northern Powerhouse.
Polls close in historic Makerfield byelection that could see Andy Burnham elected and pave way for end of Starmer
Good evening, and welcome to the Guardian’s Makerfield byelection live blog. The polls have just closed and we may have to wait until around dawn (quite early in the summer, of course) until we get a result. But, as the votes are counted, it should become clear well before then who is going to win. Andy Burnham, the Labour former cabinet minister, current mayor of Greater Manchester, and potential future prime minister, is widely expected to be the new MP, but at this point no one knows for sure.
Here is our latest story about what has been happening today, and what may unfold in the hours to come.
This byelection has been widely described as the most consequential byelection in British history. That’s probably an over-statement, but more on that later. Nevertheless, it is definitely one for the history books, because it is expected to lead to the replacement of Keir Starmer as PM.
During the night we will get the result; ultimately democratic politics is all about numbers, and these numbers really will matter. In his Spectator cover story, Tim Shipman has a good explanation as to why.
At the time of going to print, Op Makerfield is not a totally done deal. Two of Burnham’s top team parrot the same line: ‘It’s closer than you think.’ But those advising the Manchester mayor think the scale of any win will determine the speed of events. ‘If he wins by low single digits, Keir Starmer digs in and says: “You can’t come for me until after the Manchester mayoral election on 30 July,” and it’s bloody trench warfare,’ one says. ‘If it’s a comfortable, single-digits win, the soft left will try to take power through a conversation, but they will probably discover that power has to be taken by force. If Andy gets more than Reform plus Restore combined, start the clock. There will be an avalanche.’
Voting figures are very specific but, as for what happens next, there is a lot less clarity. Overnight, and during Friday, we might get a slightly clearer idea, but it is quite possible that by this time tomorrow there will still be considerable uncertainty as to how a Burnham/Starmer power struggle may unfold. Pippa Crerar had a superb account of the state of play in her Guardian splash this morning.
Of course, it is possible Reform UK could win. That would also lead to immense turmoil for Labour – with less prospect of a positive resolution for the party.
Although we will be focusing on Makerfield, there are two other byelections tonight, in Aberdeen South, and Arbroath and Broughty Ferry. We will be covering those too.
At 11.10pm the BBC will be launching its byelection programme, hosted by Laura Kuenssberg. As for when the results will come, we’ve been told around 1.30am for Aberdeen South, around 3am to 4am for Makerfield and around the same for Arbroath and Broughty Ferry. But these estimates are never very reliable.
We hope to turn comments on in the morning. Overnight, if you want to flag something up urgently, it is best to use social media. You can reach me on Bluesky at @andrewsparrowgdn.bsky.social. The Guardian has given up posting from its official accounts on X, but individual Guardian journalists are there, I still have my account, and if you message me there at @AndrewSparrow, I will see it and respond if necessary.
I find it very helpful when readers point out mistakes, even minor typos. No error is too small to correct. And I find your questions very interesting too. I can’t promise to reply to them all, but I will try to reply to as many as I can, either BTL or sometimes in the blog.
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