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The Guardian - US
The Guardian - US
Politics
George Chidi

Trump one week, Biden the next: what do presidential polls teach us?

Seen from the neck down, a woman wearing a red, white and blue sweatshirt holds a sheaf of long white ballots length-wise against a table with both hands.
An election worker prepares ballots to be processed in Las Vegas, Nevada, on 9 November 2022. Photograph: Caroline Brehman/EPA

In recent months, polling has generally showed President Joe Biden running behind his Republican challenger, Donald Trump, by a small margin, particularly in swing states like Georgia and Arizona. But election polling began to fluctuate after Biden’s State of the Union speech last month.

The question is how much meaning observers should ascribe to polls in April, seven months ahead of the election.

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