In 20XX, the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) deploys warships, including aircraft carriers, and fighter jets around Taiwan to blockade the island. Strongly opposed to the United States' planned arms sales to Taiwan, China tries to prevent the sale by taking military action and ultimately bring Taiwan to its knees. Beijing warns Washington not to intervene and cautions Tokyo that nuclear weapons could be used against Japan if its government allows U.S. forces to use bases in Japan, seeking to stoke fear among the Japanese people and split the United States and Japan.
This was the opening scenario for the war game centered on a Taiwan contingency conducted by the Japan Institute of International Affairs (JIIA) last summer in Tokyo. On the table during the war game was a large map that stretched from the Russian Far East across the Pacific Ocean, including the Philippines and Guam. The participants were divided into two teams, with the United States, Japan and Taiwan on one side and China on the other.
In consideration of the Russian invasion of Ukraine taking place in the real world, the scenario included the factor that reinforcements would come from Europe if the situation in Europe has stabilized, which would work to the advantage of the U.S. and Japan.
