In an act of politically charged defiance, California Governor Gavin Newsom announced on November 25 that if President-Elect Donald Trump follows through with his plans to eliminate the federal EV tax credit, the state of California will reintroduce a program that will help buyers find themselves behind the wheel of a new electric vehicle.
The program in question is California's former Clean Vehicle Rebate program, which offered up to $7,500 to eligible state residents who met certain income requirements and wanted to purchase or lease an eligible vehicle. By the time it was phased out in 2023, it provided over 66,000 rebates to low-income consumers at a cost of more than $354 million.
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According to data from the California Air Resources Board, the program helped fund the purchase of over 594,000 vehicles, saved more than 456 million gallons of fuel, and helped remove more than 3.9 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) from the air.
"Consumers continue to prove the skeptics wrong – zero-emission vehicles are here to stay," Newsom said in a statement. "We will intervene if the Trump Administration eliminates the federal tax credit, doubling down on our commitment to clean air and green jobs in California. We’re not turning back on a clean transportation future — we’re going to make it more affordable for people to drive vehicles that don’t pollute."
Musk and Newsom clash over exclusions
In a report from Bloomberg shortly after Newsom's announcement was published, the Governor's office told the publication that the current proposal includes what it calls "market-share limitations" that would render Tesla (TSLA) brand EVs illegible for said rebates; though it wasn't made clear if other large automakers like Ford (F) or General Motors (GM) would also be excluded on similar grounds.
"It’s about creating the market conditions for more of these car makers to take root," Gov. Newsom's office told Bloomberg.
In response to this development, Tesla CEO Elon Musk took to Twitter (now known as X) to decry Newsom's announcement as a political stunt, calling it “insane,” going on to point out that “Tesla is the only company who manufacturers their EVs in California.”
Even though Tesla is the only company who manufactures their EVs in California!
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) November 25, 2024
This is insane. https://t.co/EhVeG2TYqT
Another prominent politician weighs in
In a separate post on X, Democratic Congressman Ro Khanna (CA-17) echoed Musk's sentiment, saying that intentionally excluding Tesla from a potential EV incentive would be "foolish."
Given that Newsom is shortlisted as a Democratic Party contender in 2028, he also noted that a move like this is a mistake made again by party leaders, echoing the Biden administration’s exclusion of Tesla from a 2021 EV summit.
“Tesla makes over 550,000 vehicles in Fremont in my district & employs over 20,000. Let’s not play politics with keeping manufacturing in California. It would be foolish to exclude Tesla. Have we learned nothing from snubbing Elon Musk at the Biden EV summit?” the Congressman wrote.
Tesla makes over 550,000 vehicles in Fremont in my district & employs over 20,000. Let's not play politics with keeping manufacturing in California. It would be foolish to exclude Tesla. Have we learned nothing from snubbing @elonmusk at the Biden EV summit? https://t.co/I0Jzx51eP7
— Ro Khanna (@RoKhanna) November 26, 2024
Tesla bull says Newsom proposal can spark 'Game of Thrones' battle against Tesla
The political nature of this move has watchful analysts like Wedbush's Dan Ives turning another page in the storybook.
In an analyst note published on November 26, Ives reiterates Wedbush's "Outperform" rating and $400 price target on Tesla stock. The Tesla bull said that the Newsom office's messaging to Bloomberg could set off a "Game of Thrones Battle vs. Musk," as it is "clearly a political move of Newsom and California towards" the Tesla CEO.
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"With the majority of EVs sold in California being Teslas, this would be a risky political move in our view as ultimately the only EV actually produced in California is Tesla, and we could see Musk moving more jobs from Fremont to Austin if Newsom goes ahead and excludes Tesla from these tax credits," Ives wrote.
"We note that Tesla [vehicles] accounted for 55% of all new EVs registered in California so far in 2024 and represent the vast majority of EVs sold to date over the last 5 years."
However, Ives notes that despite his concern about this move, he is still betting on Tesla fully adopting a pathway of autonomy and robotics. He expects this to be Tesla's "golden goose" for as long as Newsom does not intervene.
"We could also see Newsome trying to head down this path next on the FSD/autonomous front given its the path Trump/Musk are heading down."
Ending Fed. EV tax credits will severely gut EV sales, economist says
Politics aside, experts believe that sales of electric cars will severely plummet if the Trump administration follows through on eliminating the Biden Administration EV tax credits.
In a new report dubbed “The Effects of ‘Buy American’: Electric Vehicles and the Inflation Reduction Act, UC Berkeley professor Joseph Shapiro, Stanford professor Hunt Allcott, and Duke University professor Felix Tintelnot noted that sales of new EVs would fall 27% in a situation similar to what Trump's transition team had proposed.
Their simulations found that electric vehicle registrations would drop from 1.184 million down to 867,000, reflecting a loss of 317,000 EVs from America's roads.
"It's a rapidly growing market and relatively new technology, but [eliminating the federal EV tax credit] is not trivial. I mean, $7,500 is not trivial,” Shapiro told Yahoo Finance.
Tesla Inc. is traded on the NASDAQ as TSLA.
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