Pardon the skepticism, but well, the Phillies have been here before.
Four years running, in fact, they held a playoff spot or trailed by no more than 3½ games in the division or wild-card races as September began. Every time, they packed their things on the last day of the season after failing to qualify for the postseason tournament.
Since 2018, their record after Sept. 1 is 47-69.
So, as another September dawns, with the Phillies leading the Milwaukee Brewers by three games for the final playoff berth in an expanded field, their tortured fans could hardly be blamed for doubting whether this year will really end any differently. And in allowing 22 consecutive runs in back-to-back stompings this week in Arizona, including blowing a seven-run lead Monday night, the Phillies only stoked those fans’ dread.
Interim manager Rob Thomson’s stock answer for why history won’t repeat (again) is to cite the overall improvement of the bullpen, a by-product of which is enhanced confidence that late-inning leads won’t morph into soul-crushing losses.
“We’re winning games at the end of games that, in the last few years, we’ve lost,” Thomson said recently. “There’s a good vibe on the club.”
OK, but will it persist for one more month?
That’s the overriding question. Here are others, with a few cracks already beginning to show as the calendar flips to what is for the Phillies the unkindest month of all:
What’s the Phillies’ biggest remaining challenge?
Scott Lauber: Stretching the pitching depth as far as it will go.
It isn’t merely that Zack Wheeler and Seranthony Domínguez are out with what the team has characterized as tendinitis of the forearm and triceps, respectively. Or that Aaron Nola has a 4.87 ERA in September/October since 2018 compared to a 3.51 mark overall. The innings are piling up for Ranger Suárez and Noah Syndergaard. Corey Knebel (shoulder) is out for the season. And Zach Eflin’s return from another knee injury is hardly guaranteed.
The roster is deeper in all areas than it has been, as evidenced Wednesday night by another solid start from lefty Bailey Falter, who nevertheless tweaked his right groin. Yet the Phillies still traded for triple-A reliever Vinny Nittoli on Wednesday and were set to call him up when rosters expanded Thursday.
Falter and fellow reinforcement Cristopher Sánchez will need to continue to provide quality innings. But the Phillies may eventually have to dip into the ranks of Michael Plassmeyer and Kent Emanuel, too, and hope they have enough.
What’s the level of concern about Wheeler and Domínguez?
Alex Coffey: Not too high. On Monday, Thomson said Domínguez likely will return during the Phillies’ first homestand of September, which starts on Tuesday. As of Thursday, Wheeler was still on track to make Tuesday’s start. He threw out to 90-120 feet on Wednesday and will throw a bullpen session when the Phillies are in San Francisco this weekend.
When Wheeler was placed on the 15-day injured list on Aug. 25, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said the right-hander could have pitched through his injury, but the Phillies wanted to knock out the tendinitis as quickly as possible.
Domínguez said on Aug. 21 that he was concerned about his arm. But he has said in recent days that he has felt “way better” and he believes he’ll be back sooner rather than later. He likely will need a rehab appearance before he rejoins the club.
How does the remaining schedule stack up?
SL: Favorably. But most contenders could say the same.
The gap between the good teams and the bad is wider than ever. Only seven NL teams have winning records, while seven are on pace to lose at least 90 games. And other than a nine-game stretch (Sept. 16-25) against Atlanta, Toronto, and Atlanta again, the Phillies will play a bunch of bad teams.
Until this week, the Phillies were mostly dominating the dregs of the league. Seven games against Washington, six against Miami, and three against the Cubs should translate into no fewer than, what, 13 wins? The Phillies may regret anything less.
What’s new about the playoff format and how does it affect the Phillies?
AC: There are the obvious reasons that the playoff format will impact the Phillies — the fact that the pool of teams will expand from 10 to 12 is certainly a help — but there are also a few other factors. In the past, teams could get away with three or four starters entering a playoff series and opt to use some starters out of the bullpen. But now there are fewer off days, both between series and in series, which means teams will need at least five.
Given the state of the Phillies’ pitching depth, that could be a scenario that they struggle in. As mentioned earlier, they’re optimistic that Domínguez and Wheeler will be back by early September. But if either of them remain out, that will be a problem.
Another impact is that if the Phillies make the three-game wild-card series, they might not play a playoff game at home. Wild-card series will be played at the home park of the team with the higher seed.
Who will be the X factor for the final month?
SL: Given that the bullpen is the most improved part of the roster since Thomson replaced Joe Girardi, it’s probably Domínguez. His return as a dominant late-inning presence would go a long way toward removing any sky-is-falling vibe that may creep back in down the stretch.
But let’s go with a more creative answer: Nick Castellanos.
These Phillies were built to mash. Entering Wednesday, they ranked fifth in the NL in runs (603) and fourth in homers (164). Imagine where they would be if Castellanos wasn’t having his worst season since 2014.
Castellanos, who missed the last three games with turf toe, bashed a go-ahead homer Aug. 3 in Atlanta, and since then is slugging .479, more in line with his .476 career mark. It’s an improvement. But the $100 million slugger hasn’t gotten truly hot yet. Doing so in September would be a difference-maker.
What’s a reasonable expectation for Harper’s production?
AC: Thomson has said Bryce Harper is a quick healer. So far, Harper has recorded at least one hit in every game since he returned from the 60-day injured list on Aug. 26 — except for Tuesday against Diamondbacks starter Zac Gallen, who now has a 34-inning scoreless streak. Entering Friday, Harper is slashing .381/.500/.476 with four RBIs in 21 at-bats since his return.
He’s not quite at Bryce Harper-level production yet, but he’s hitting the ball hard and could get back to his normal self in a week or two. In case you forgot, his normal self is an MVP-caliber hitter who bats over .300, slugs anywhere from .500-.600 and has an OPS over 1.000. The Phillies will take that.
