141 versus 151? They are not three-digit lottery numbers, but the number of the Pheu Thai Party's seats in the House of Representatives compared to those of the Move Forward Party.
They were presented by Adisorn Piangkate, a party-list MP from Pheu Thai and a veteran northeastern MP, during a recent party seminar to back up his argument about why his party should take the House speakership.
Mr Adisorn also suggested the Pheu Thai Party should field a candidate to contest the House speakership instead of giving it up to the Move Forward Party. Some want to avoid a scenario where the MFP takes both the premiership as well as the House speakership.
Mr Adisorn believed the party was making too many concessions despite the fact the MFP won only 151 seats, way below a majority in the 500-seat chamber.
Earlier, he suggested that if the parties were unable to reach an agreement over the issue, the matter should be decided by a free vote in parliament.
"We've agreed to let the MFP take the prime minister post, and why do we have to bow to their demand for the House speakership? I wouldn't utter a word if the MFP had a landslide win. They won only 151 seats," said Mr Adisorn.
Pheu Thai had tried its best to avoid conflicts with the MFP to keep the bloc intact and prevent the other camp from forming a rival coalition with Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) leader Prawit Wongsuwon as prime minister.
Mr Adisorn said the prospect of a PPRP-led minority government, with 188 seats from the former government coalition, could never be ruled out as long as the Senate is allowed to co-select the prime minister.
"We've tried not to stir up conflicts because we're concerned about a rival coalition. The coalition government may nominate Gen Prawit as the prime minister, and it is possible he will get support from the Senate and defeat the MFP leader," he said.
His argument reflects the opinion of many northeastern MPs who make up the core faction of the party after the party lost ground to Move Forward in the May 14 election, including in Bangkok's 32 constituencies and Chiang Mai which is considered the party's "capital".
The veteran politician hinted he might abstain from voting for a Move Forward candidate for the House speakership when the House meets to select the speaker and two deputy speakers in early July, tentatively July 4.
With more than two decades in Thai politics, Mr Adisorn is naïve if he fails to see the near impossible chance of Move Forward Party leader Pita Limjaroenrat winning at least 64 votes from senators which he needs to usher him into the prime minister's post.
Mr Pita has made it clear that he will be the next prime minister while the party's supporters, about 14 million voters who cast ballots for the party, are expecting his premiership. But there are two obstacles blocking his path: the iTV share ownership controversy and senators' support.
Mr Pita may survive the iTV share controversy, but most observers believe many senators will abstain from voting for him as prime minister, mainly because of the party's uncompromising stance on reform of the monarchy, amendments to the lese majeste law and overhaul of the military among others.
If Mr Pita is rejected, the party has no alternative candidate as he is its only candidate compared to three for the Pheu Thai Party: Paetongtarn Shinawatra, Srettha Thavisin and Chaikasem Nitisiri.
The likely scenario is the Pheu Thai Party will support Move Forward Party's candidate, who is yet to be picked, for the House speakership and then wait on the sidelines to see the outcome of the senators' vote on Mr Pita's prime ministerial candidacy.
It is quite uncommon in Thai politics for the No 1 and No 2 parties, in terms of seats in the House, working together to form a government instead of fighting with each other.
What will be the scenario if Mr Pita is rejected by the Senate? The worst case scenario is as warned by political activist and Move Forward supporter, Arnon Nampha, that Mr Pita's supporters may take to the streets to pressure the Senate.
Another scenario is Mr Pita backs off after he realises he won't be able to get senators' support and agrees to let Pheu Thai take the lead in forming the next government of eight coalition parties with one of its three prime ministerial candidates standing as the next prime minister.
In such a scenario, Pheu Thai has two choices. One is to stick with the eight coalition parties to form the government. The other is to break away to find new allies among the so-called "undemocratic" parties which will be more acceptable to senators, but despised by new-generation Thais.
But there is a risk factor that the Pheu Thai will have to consider before taking the second approach. That is the potential backlash from new generation or middle-class voters who may feel betrayed by the party and boycott Pheu Thai at the next election.
In that case, the Move Forward Party may have to lick its wounds and wait to stage a comeback in four years' time.
July will be an exciting month to watch for political spectacles to unfold which could determine the future of this country.
Veera Prateepchaikul is former editor, Bangkok Post.
