Satellite images from August show two liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers docked at the port of Arctic LNG 2, a Russian LNG production mega-project sanctioned by the United States. Because they transmit false GPS coordinates and have links with opaque companies supposedly based in Dubai, these ships could be part of a "dark fleet" being developed to export LNG and get around existing US sanctions. On August 23, the United States added the two LNG tankers to its list of sanctions.
It's a ship that catches the eye: a satellite image taken on August 1 shows an LNG tanker – a cargo ship carrying liquefied natural gas (LNG) – moored at the port of the Arctic LNG 2 project, a gigantic natural gas liquefaction plant on the Gydan Peninsula in western Siberia, Russia. This is the first time that an LNG tanker has been seen in the port of the plant, which had been due to start exporting in 2024.
LNG is natural gas that has been cooled to -160°C, giving it a liquid form that makes it easier to transport. The Arctic LNG 2 plant, operated by Russia's leading producer, Novatek, will eventually produce 19.8 million tonnes of LNG a year. The plant is crucial for Russia, as it currently produces 8 percent of the world's LNG and is aiming for 20 percent by 2035 with a view to financing its ongoing war in Ukraine. The stakes are all the more high for Moscow, given that the European Union's imports of Russian oil and gas are falling.
According to Novatek, Arctic LNG 2 began production in December 2023. However, its first exports – initially scheduled for the first quarter of 2024 – have been delayed. The main reason for this was the US sanctions imposed in November 2023 which prohibited the purchase of LNG produced by the project, prompting foreign shareholders to suspend their participation in the project and complicating the delivery of LNG carriers capable of exporting the production.
Revealing satellite images
By analysing satellite images taken by the Sentinel mission, we can establish that the LNG tanker arrived at the port of Arctic LNG 2 between late July and early August. In an image from July 30, it is not visible, then it appears on an image from August 1 for the first time. Although it is still present in images from August 2, the cloud cover over the following days makes it impossible to determine the date of its departure.
The presence of this LNG carrier moored at the port of the mega-project seems to confirm industry analysts' hypothesis that a "dark fleet" of LNG tankers is being set up to circumvent the sanctions affecting the LNG sector. Such a dark fleet already exists in the oil sector, for the same purpose. However, setting it up with LNG tankers is much more complicated, as ships carrying liquefied gas, a highly combustible product, can only go to ports with LNG liquefaction and regasification terminals.
Many analysts have tried to identify the LNG tanker visible from the sky in the beginning of August at the Arctic LNG 2 port. Especially since, according to public ship-tracking data, no ships were in the site's vicinity on those dates.
"We looked at all the possibilities, i.e. the seven or eight vessels that were between Norway and the port at that time. We identified all of them, and the only one left was the LNG carrier Pioneer," says Kjell Eikland, managing director of Eikland Energy, an energy consultancy.
A ship that cannot be found in the positions it sends out
The Pioneer is an LNG carrier built in 2005 under the flag of Palau, a Pacific island nation, capable of transporting 138,000 cubic metres of gas, according to the ship's public data. These also indicate that it is 277 metres long and 43 metres wide, which corresponds to the dimensions of the vessel visible in the satellite images taken at the beginning of August.
This boat is supposed to use an AIS (Automatic Identification System) transponder to send information on its position. However, the data it transmitted between July 23 and August 6 published on maritime traffic monitoring sites place it at more than 1,200 kilometres from the Arctic LNG 2 project in the Barents Sea, north of Norway, making oval loops of around 60 kilometres in the open sea.
The data transmitted by the boat is questionable, as the Pioneer cannot actually be found as indicated. According to data from the MarineTraffic website passed on to the FRANCE 24 Observers editorial team, it was, for example, supposedly located at coordinates 74.06675, 36.6977 at 10:29am on July 24. However, a satellite image available on the Sentinel Hub platform taken ten minutes earlier shows an empty sea within a radius of several kilometres around this position. The same is true if we compare the alleged coordinates of July 26 with the Sentinel images from that day.
"There is absolutely no ship that behaves in this way for so long," Eikland says, in regard to the Pioneer's alleged trajectory in the Barents Sea, which is perfectly elliptical. The analyst sees this as the result of a "computer algorithm". It could be that the Pioneer transmitted a false signal to conceal its true activities.
The practice of sending false coordinates is known as "spoofing". It is typical of the behaviour of dark fleets, and "very easy" to carry out, says Eikland. "The system is based on manual input: all you have to do is log on and enter the position you want. Some people say that on Alibaba (China's main online sales platform), you can find devices for $25 that you can plug into the AIS transponder and transmit a false location."
First shipment of LNG?
It is impossible to confirm from satellite images alone that the Pioneer has indeed been loaded with LNG. The loading information transmitted is entered manually by the crew, and may therefore be deliberately incorrect.
But multiple analysts interviewed by FRANCE 24 Observers agree that such a route to this mega-project leaves little doubt as to the nature of the tanker's mission.
Satellite images also show flames rising from the plant, corresponding to gas flaring activity. This "suggests that production has started," according to Malte Humpert, an investigative journalist for the specialist publication gCaptain.
The time spent in port at Arctic LNG 2 is also compatible with a load. "In general, 12 to 24 hours are enough for a full charge," Humpert says.
Based on the duration of this port call, the company Kpler, which specialises in analysing data on raw materials, estimated that the vessel had been fully loaded, and published the information as such in its database.
LNG tanker loaded – destination unknown
What about the destination of the Pioneer's cargo? Who could buy this gas, which is subject to US sanctions?
"We don't know whether the cargo on board has been sold or who the buyer is," points out Laura Page, LNG specialist at Kpler. On ship tracking websites, the Pioneer does not indicate the port it is heading for.
However, its AIS data can be seen from August 6: the ship is in the Barents Sea, heading south along the coasts of Norway, then the UK, France and Spain, before passing through the Straits of Gibraltar and continuing on to the Mediterranean. On August 26, it was around 90km north of the entrance to the Suez Canal.
Why did the Pioneer reappear on the maritime tracking sites? Kjell Eikland explains: "It is up to the states to enforce the obligation [for ships to] transmit their coordinates. Obviously, in Russian waters, the authorities may not do so. But in Norwegian waters, for example, traffic is much more controlled."
Secondary sanctions
Although the European Union has not banned the import of LNG from the Arctic LNG 2 project, merely prohibiting the transfer of Russian LNG from one ship to another in its ports from March 2025, it is highly unlikely that this product will be sold in Europe because of secondary sanctions, according to Eikland:
If you import into Europe, the identity of the importing company will be known (...) and will immediately expose itself to being sanctioned, because the US sanctions relate to the Arctic LNG 2 project, and also to the companies trading with the project. All those who directly or indirectly facilitate [the development of the project] are liable to be sanctioned by the United States.
In fact, while the US sanctions only apply directly to companies based in the United States, Washington often takes punitive measures against non-US companies that violate the sanctions, for example by prohibiting US banks from opening dollar accounts for them.
‘Many customers are prepared to buy LNG at a reduced price’
One hypothesis is that Russia is looking to trade with companies that have little or no exposure to the US dollar, which could be the case in India or China. According to Ross McCracken, LNG editor at the website Natural Gas World, this "shadow fleet" could also enable Russia to do business with more cautious players. "A shadow fleet makes it easier to hide the origin of the LNG, which makes it easier to sell to these customers. There are a lot of customers who are prepared to buy if the LNG is sold at a reduced price," he explains.
Eikland also suggests that LNG could be transferred in the open sea between two ships placed side by side:
This would make it possible to completely conceal the origin of the cargo by providing false papers on its provenance. The importing company could then say: 'Oh, we didn't know, we were presented with legitimate documents indicating that the LNG came from Yamal,' [another LNG project in the Russian Arctic not subject to sanctions - Ed.] for example .
A ‘shadow fleet’ for LNG: a complex operation
As of 2022, a "dark fleet" – reportedly made up of around 1,400 tankers – has already been built up in the oil sector to transport Russian "black gold" covertly and get around the sanctions. But reproducing this pattern with gas is much more complicated, explains an analyst from Natural Gas World who requested anonymity:
There are many more places where oil can be loaded and unloaded, compared to LNG. LNG tankers only go to ports with LNG liquefaction and regasification terminals. What's more, there are more than 8,000 oil tankers in the world, compared to just 700 LNG carriers. So LNG tankers are much easier to track.
Ship-to-ship transfers on the high seas, which "ghost fleets" often use to cover their tracks, are also more difficult in the case of LNG, argues McCracken.
LNG is also very combustible. So the risks are higher [than for oil]. The situation is worrying because, in the event of a ‘ghost fleet’, very old LNG ships could try to make transfers. And if there is a problem, there is a risk of damage to the environment and to people's health and safety, especially as a ‘dark fleet’ is not properly insured. So there's a risk of never being able to claim this insurance.
Another LNG tanker in the port of Arctic LNG 2
The case of the Pioneer could be the first of a series. On August 11, Sentinel images showed another LNG tanker docked in the port of Arctic LNG 2.
Analysts identified it as the Asya Energy, a spherical LNG carrier that appears to be managed by the same company as the Pioneer.
Its dimensions and appearance – in particular its four spherical tanks – are compatible with what is visible in the satellite images.
We find a similar pattern: from August 4 to 15, its AIS coordinates place it in the Barents Sea... close to where the Pioneer's coordinates stopped.
Although it also used spoofing, it chose another method that is potentially more difficult to detect. "The Pioneer used circular spoofing, while Asya Energy used slow roll steaming," explains Humpert. This practice consists of the vessel "imitating the movement [of a ship], but at abnormally slow speeds".
According to the vessel tracking data, the Asya Energy then resumed its course, moving southwards off the Norwegian coast. After stopping transmitting its position for a few days, it headed back towards the Barents Sea, where it was located on August 26.
On August 23, a third LNG tanker, the Everest Energy, was spotted in the Barents Sea, again carrying out typical spoofing manoeuvres. However, given the cloudy conditions surrounding the Arctic LNG 2 project over the past few days, it is not yet possible to determine whether it has also recently moored in port.
Flags of convenience and companies based in Dubai's 'free zones'
Even more than the deactivation of their AIS signals, several factors suggest that these boats are part of a nascent ghost fleet, McCracken says:
These boats are often registered under a flag of convenience. They are represented by a company that has been set up very recently, based in a jurisdiction where ownership details are not disclosed.
These elements are also present in the case of Pioneer, Asya Energy and Everest Energy: all are flying the Palau flag, considered a flag of convenience by the International Transport Workers' Federation (ITF).
Built respectively in 2005, 2002 and 2003, they were – according to the Equasis database – bought in April, May and February 2024 by Nur Global Shipping, a company then unknown in the LNG sector, according to several analysts. Nur Global Shipping is based in the United Arab Emirates, a country notorious in the shipping industry for providing little information on vessel ownership. Its address links to one of the United Arab Emirates' free zones, which allow foreign investors to set up businesses while enjoying a host of benefits, including tax advantages. To set up a business in one of these zones in the Emirates, all you have to do is pay €3,000 online, without even visiting the country.
Between the end of May and the end of June, these boats were bought by Ocean Speedstar Solutions, an Indian company created only a few days before, according to information from the Indian government.
Contacted by FRANCE 24 Observers, the two companies did not respond to our requests.
Another suspicious element: the insurer of the boats is indicated as "unknown" in S&P Global Market Intelligence data sent to the Observers editorial team. The absence of an insurer can be seen as another characteristic of these "ghost ships", notes a report by the Kyiv School of Economics.
Like them, at least two other ships are managed by Nur Global Shipping Company: Mulan and New Energy. They too fly the Palau flag, and Mulan has no known insurer either, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.
Another suspect quartet
Industry analysts are keeping an eye on four other vessels: North Sky, North Air, North Mountain and North Way. To date, no clandestine activity has been recorded on these vessels.
But these four boats also display an accumulation of elements that attract attention.
Between December 2023 and March 2024, they began registering with White Fox Ship Management, a company based in Dubai, also in a free zone. Unknown to LNG analysts, this company, according to TradeWinds, received its trading licence in January 2024. All four LNG tankers fly the same flag, that of Panama, which is also considered a flag of convenience by the ITF.
No information on White Fox Ship Management can be found online. If they contact us after publication of this article, we will include their reaction in an update.
These factors have led industry analysts to see these ships as potential "ghost ships" capable of transporting Moscow's LNG, especially as they have received authorisation from the Russian authorities to use the Northern Sea Route linking Europe to Asia via the Arctic.
Only Arc7-class icebreakers can operate in the Arctic all year round because of the ice present in winter. However, vessels registered with White Fox Ship Management and Nur Global Shipping Energy are not able to operate in the region all year round. The journey made by the Pioneer took place just a few days after the route had been cleared of ice. So while a "dark fleet" is apparently being developed around the Arctic LNG 2 project, for the time being it would be incapable of loading and delivering LNG all year round.
What role will Russia play in setting up the dark fleet?
Finally, there are still many uncertainties about the identity of the people behind these Dubai-based companies. "It could be Russia, it could be companies affiliated to the Russian government, but it could also be opportunistic traders who could, for example, buy this gas, transport it and sell it, thereby making a profit," points out the analyst from Natural Gas World.
But for some specialists, such as Lloyd's List Intelligence analyst Michelle Bockmann, there is little doubt that there are links – direct or indirect – with Russia:
On the one hand, LNG shipping is almost always based on purchase agreements and long-term charter contracts. Secondly, LNG tankers are very expensive. Who has that kind of money? No shipowner has several hundred million dollars lying around. And normal banks aren't going to lend hundreds of millions of dollars for ships that are going to make money transporting Russian LNG. So, even if it is an independent shipowner, there is every reason to believe that it is an independent ship backed by Russian money or a Russian-backed ship.
The United States sanctions the Pioneer, the Asya Energy and the Everest Energy
On August 23, the US State Department declared that the Pioneer and the Asya Everest Energy were "involved in the illegal loading of LNG at the Arctic LNG 2 project in early August". They added them to their list of sanctions.
The United States also sanctioned Ocean Speedstar Solutions, the company that bought the three vessels, and White Fox Ship Management, as well as the vessels North Way, North Air, North Mountain and North Sky.
The State Department accuses Russia of being behind these companies: "In an attempt to circumvent US sanctions and revive the Russian Arctic LNG 2 project, Russian companies have sought to procure used LNG tankers, primarily through front companies established in third countries, to address the critical shortage of LNG tankers available for the Arctic LNG 2 project."
Our editors attempted to contact Novatek by email and telephone, without success. We will publish their response if we receive it.
