The Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) was the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) stepping stone to power in Assam. More than two decades later, it is payback time for the latter in the regional party’s quest for a berth in Parliament.
The AGP’s last Lok Sabha member was Joseph Toppo, who won the Sonitpur (now Tezpur) constituency in 2009.
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The BJP tasted success in its first Assembly election in Assam in 1991, winning 10 seats, nine of which were from the Bengali-dominated Barak Valley. But the party’s graph started dipping until the Prafulla Kumar Manata-led AGP struck a partnership ahead of the 2001 State elections.
The 2001 State elections were a disaster for the AGP but it gave the BJP a toehold in the Assamese-dominated Brahmaputra Valley. The alliance, broken after the AGP’s electoral debacle that year, was forged again ahead of the 2016 State polls, which the two parties won along with the now-discarded Bodoland People’s Front.
As the minor partner of the BJP since, the AGP was in 2019 allotted three Lok Sabha seats — Barpeta, Dhubri, and Kaliabor — which the BJP was reportedly uncomfortable with because of a high percentage of Muslim voters.
The Congress won the Barpeta and Kaliabor seats, while the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) retained Dhubri in 2019.
After the 2023 delimitation, Kaliabor ceased to exist and a reshaped Barpeta now has less than 40% Muslim voters compared with more than 60% five years ago. Dhubri, on the other hand, was saddled with more Muslim voters than the 73% it had in 2019.
“The AGP did not get winnable seats in the earlier elections. But the situation has changed and BJP workers have been told to back the two AGP candidates fully,” Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma said in March.
The two AGP candidates are former Minister Phani Bhushan Choudhury in Barpeta, and Zabed Islam in Dhubri. Both hope to be second-time lucky by riding the saffron wave.
Mr. Choudhury finished fourth in 2019, behind Sirajuddin Ajmal of the AIUDF, Chandra Mohan Patowary of the BJP, and Ismail Hussain of the Congress. Mr. Islam was third, behind AIUDF chief Badruddin Ajmal and Abu Taher Bepari of the Congress.
AGP president and Agriculture Minister Atul Bora attributed the optimism within his party to the camaraderie with the BJP, as demonstrated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s rally in the Barpeta constituency a few days ago. “People will vote for AGP because of the development ensured by the BJP-led NDA (National Democratic Alliance). And contrary to perceptions, many Muslims are supporting us,” he said.
The AGP claims a sizeable chunk of the Muslim voters in Dhubri have gravitated toward the NDA. But it agrees its candidate in the constituency often used as a metaphor for Assam’s “Bangladeshi problem” could benefit from a possible division of votes between the candidates of the AIUDF and the Congress.
