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Liverpool Echo
Liverpool Echo
Sport
Andrew Beasley

Paulo Dybala special skill might explain Liverpool transfer links

There can be little doubt that the most sought-after free agent in football this summer will be Kylian Mbappe.

Many other players will attract plenty of interest too though. The likes of Paul Pogba, Franck Kessie, Antonio Rudiger and Ousmane Dembele are certain to be courted by top clubs across the continent.

But what about Juventus forward Paulo Dybala? Football Italia reported a claim yesterday that he is set to join Inter Milan, and that’s certainly a plausible enough outcome.

Could he be on his way to the Premier League though, and more specifically Liverpool?

READ MORE: Brazilian wonderkid Endrick could be perfect Jurgen Klopp parting gift for new Liverpool manager

Italian sports correspondent Tancredi Palmeri has tweeted that the club has contacted Dybala to monitor his situation.

Even more intriguingly, Palmeri added: “Dybala would be keen to move to Liverpool.”

At face value, this move seems an unlikely prospect. The Argentine will be 29 years old in November and the Reds already have a front line packed with forwards of similar age.

Most players whom Liverpool have signed in recent years have been no more than 25, and it's believed that will be the club's plan again in the summer.

The Juventus forward has also struggled with injuries during his time with the club and has only featured for 60 percent of the possible league minutes since joining them in 2015.

Dybala will likely be seeking a salary which may price him out of a move to Anfield too, especially if FSG have apportioned a significant chunk of the wage bill on a new contract for Mohamed Salah.

But if we ignore these potential hurdles, as realistic as they are, and focus purely on the player’s data – which will always be a vital consideration at Liverpool – then there are reasons why they could be looking to sign Dybala.

One way in which the 28-year-old could improve Liverpool’s options is through his ability to score goals from long-range.

Since the start of 2014/15, Dybala has scored 25 times from outside the box in Serie A from chances valued at 14 expected goals by Understat.

Ten of the goals have been from direct free-kicks, an area in which Trent Alexander-Arnold is strong, but the Reds don’t score many from distance in open play and the Juventus man has that ability.

Something else he possesses is a statistical similarity to one of Liverpool’s key men.

Statsbomb provide a list of 10 similar players for everybody in Europe’s big five leagues on FBRef, and number five on the list for Dybala is Roberto Firmino.

His fellow South American is number six in Bobby’s own group, and they share five other players in common too.

None of this is to say they’re identical players, of course, as they clearly are not.

To give some comparisons as examples, Dybala is a better dribbler and plays crosses more frequently whereas Firmino offers more defensively and provides more through ball passes.

Yet in some ways, they’re very hard to tell apart when studying their data from the beginning of the 2017/18 season onward.

For instance, they each have an expected assist average of 0.20 per 90 minutes, meaning they should set up a goal every five matches. Their actual output for assists is only 0.02 per 90 apart in any case.

The duo also have very similar figures for other passing statistics, such as number of attempts completed into the final third and penalty area, and also progressive passes.

Across the last year, their figures for the latter stat (which are passes which move the ball at least 10 yards towards the opposition goal or into the box) are identical to two decimal places, with Dybala and Firmino being among the top four percent of forwards in the big leagues for this metric.

While it seems unlikely that Dybala will be joining Liverpool, his Firmino-like attributes do at least hint at why the Reds could be interested.

He could provide some of the same key skills while shaking up the Reds’ front line at the same time.

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