The by-election date for the Melbourne seat of Aston hasn’t been announced, but it is already having a significant impact on federal politics.
On the 15th anniversary of former prime minister Kevin Rudd’s apology to the Stolen Generations, Opposition Leader Peter Dutton delivered his own apology on the floor of Parliament for walking out on that momentous event.
There was nothing mealy-mouthed about it:
“I failed,” he said, “to grasp at the time the symbolic significance to the Stolen Generations of the apology. It was right for prime minister Rudd to make the apology in 2008. It is right that we recognise the anniversary today.”
The looming by-election cannot be discounted as a major factor.
Aston voted ‘yes’ in the 1999 republican referendum and, like Liberal-held seats elsewhere in our capital cities, most voters are clearly more socially progressive.
Little wonder that Peter Dutton has delayed announcing his party’s final position on the Voice referendum until after the by-election.
But with his apology on Monday, Mr Dutton will want Aston voters to see him as more sympathetic to the cause.
Change of heart
On the face of it, the Liberals should be in the box seat to win Aston. They have held it reasonably comfortably over the past three decades, though they got a fright last year.
The retiring member Alan Tudge suffered a massive 11.1 per cent swing against him and only got across the line thanks to preferences from One Nation, Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party and a couple of other right-leaning independents.
It is 100 years since a government has won a seat from an opposition at such a poll, but precedents are always there to be set and are not an iron law of politics.
Certainly that’s Labor’s view and it is planning to give the contest “a red-hot go”.
Labor is on the hunt for a strong candidate and is determined not to make the same mistake it did in the 2001 by-election in the seat by preselecting a candidate who showed up poorly under the intense scrutiny such elections entail.
Opposition Leader Peter Dutton is very exercised over the calibre and gender of the candidate the Liberals put forward. At the weekend he and deputy Sussan Ley urged the Victorian division to preselect a woman.
Women problem continues
If there is one thing the Liberal leader has taken from the 2022 poll drubbing it is the party’s vulnerability on the dearth of women in its ranks, and the success of female independents in taking safe seats from the party.
But it seems his conservative factional allies in the state aren’t listening and are pushing for their preferred candidate – a man – despite several competent and high-profile women putting up their hands.
Two of the women have a record of community involvement, are qualified lawyers and, coincidentally, are of Indian heritage.
One seasoned Victorian MP says the party could show it has heeded the need to be more inclusive on the issues of women’s representation and cultural diversity.
That Mr Dutton went public to pressure the Victorians is another indication that he is far from taking the by-election lightly.
And with reason.
Focus on Peter Dutton
Some in Labor see Mr Dutton as their secret weapon.
There was a report on Sunday he will feature prominently in Labor’s campaign.
Mr Dutton has given them plenty of ammunition since the election.
He has opposed stronger action on emissions targets at every turn.
And remarkably in December the Opposition voted against the government’s domestic gas price cap and $1.5 billion energy relief package.
The Liberals are briefing that cost of living and interest rates are far and away the dominant concerns of voters in Aston, which makes these decisions look like political hari-kari.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers didn’t miss when he spoke about the by-election on Sunday.
Apart from apologising for not apologising on Monday, Mr Dutton led the charge in question time against the government’s ending of temporary protection visas for almost 20,000 refugees.
Even one of his own privately lamented the Opposition was “flogging a dead horse”.
There has been no successful people smugglers’ boat arrival for nine years and Albanese is retaining boat turnbacks.
The Prime Minister says he will continue to be “tough on borders while not being weak on humanity”.
Aston is the sort of electorate where that line could play well.
Paul Bongiorno AM is a veteran of the Canberra Press Gallery, with more than 40 years’ experience covering Australian politics
