Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has taken the lead in the 2022 Most Valuable Player race with only two weeks left in the regular season. This was after Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts sat out in last week’s game against the Dallas Cowboys. Eagles backup quarterback Gardner Minshew put up 34 points despite taking a loss.
Some are arguing that with the number of points Minshew was able to accumulate on offense, it must mean that Hurts isn’t as valuable to his team as some thought. It’s important to note that Minshew also threw two interceptions, and in Hurts’ last matchup against the Cowboys, he had two touchdowns, zero interceptions and a QBR of 104.6.
This leaves us with a big question. Is this still an MVP race between the two?
- Mahomes has a league-high 4,720 passing yards, with 41 total touchdowns and 11 interceptions.
- Hurts has 4,219 total yards, 35 total touchdowns and only five interceptions.
The Eagles having a better overall team and Hurts missing last week’s game shouldn’t automatically remove Hurts from the conversation.
So, let’s dive a bit deeper into the film and the stats to see if we can determine which quarterback was the Most Valuable Player for their football team!
The stats
One of the reasons why Hurts is still in the MVP conversation is the leap he’s made from last year to this year. He took the Eagles from eight wins in 2021, to now having the best record in the NFL sitting at 13-2. The Eagles also have the most points scored on offense in the league with 445.
Last year, the Eagles had an Offensive DVOA of 18.0% which was 14th overall. This year they are at 29.9%, which is fifth overall; that is a huge leap! (For more information on DVOA, here is the definition from Football Outsiders).
Also, the guys over at rbsdm.com also believe that these are the two most efficient quarterbacks in the league:
Hurts has 3,472 passing and 747 rushing yards. He’s thrown 22 touchdown passes, and has 13 on the ground. Hurts also has the least number of interceptions in the league (min. of 350 attempts), with five.
Also, if we are going to bring up Mahomes losing Tyreek Hill, it’s only fair to consider how big of a loss tight-end Dallas Goedert was from weeks 10-15. Within that time, Hurts was able to adjust and went those first four games without throwing a single interception.
That being said, Mahomes is still winning the numbers race. He has 4,720 passing yards (1st), 37 touchdowns (1st) and 11 interceptions (20th. He leads the league passing yards per game with 314.7. Most importantly, he’s been able to do this after losing his number one deep threat target in the offseason, Tyreek Hill.
This is important to mention because last year, the Chiefs were fourth in passing yards per game, with 281.8, and this year they are first, averaging 303.5 per game.
In 2021, they were third in Passing DVOA at 35.7% and seventh highest in Points Earned per Pass Play with .204. This year, they lead the league in Passing DVOA with 42.1% and also Points Earned per Pass Play with .277.
It’s fair to say that we all thought the Chiefs’ offense would take a hit losing after Hill, and yet somehow head coach Andy Reid and Mahomes have been able to spread the ball around, increasing production. Mahomes has been playing his best ball since he entered the league in 2018, which was the last time he won MVP.
There are only two categories where Hurts’ leads Mahomes, and it’s yards per attempt (8.2) and interceptions (5). To put the nail in the coffin, looking at total EPA, which is expected points per attempt, Mahomes leads the league by a mile with 107.64. The second closest is Tua Tagovailoa with 66.16.
So, when it comes down to the numbers race, Mahomes takes it, easy.
The RPO
Now when we really break down an offense, we must look at production per concept. When running the run-pass option Hurts leads the league in touchdowns (four) and is second in completions (47) with the second-most RPO attempts (58), and the third-most passing yards (363).
The most impressive stat about the Eagles’ RPO offense is the production, Hurts’ currently has the highest EPA with 19.25.
Against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Hurts used only one concept with different results to expose their defense.
In the third quarter in week 15 against the Bears, Hurts ran his famous RPO to his number one receiver, A.J. Brown.
According to Sports Info Solutions, A.J. Brown leads the league in slant receptions, 23, and total yards from slant routes, 324 yards.
When running RPO slants, Hurts has the third highest completion percentage (75.8%) on 33 attempts and the highest on-target percentage with 96.9% (min. 20 slants).
The run-pass option is so deadly because of Hurts’ threat with the ball in his hands. He is the first quarterback in NFL history to have at least 10 rushing touchdowns in back-to-back seasons. This season, Hurts has 12 games with multiple touchdowns, which is tied for the most in the NFL this season.
In the Chiefs’ RPO offense, Mahomes has 47 attempts for 271 yards, which is fourth-most, and he has two touchdowns, with a 7.43 EPA.
Within the modern day RPO offense, Hurts takes it.
The passing concepts
On Mahomes’ 108 attempts from within the red zone, he has 391 yards, 31 passing touchdowns, four rushing touchdowns and only three interceptions with a 13.42 EPA.
Hurts has 169 yards on 47 attempts, nine passing touchdowns, 11 rushing touchdowns and zero interceptions, with a 1.83 EPA.
What this tells us is that Hurts gets more of his touchdowns from the deep ball, which defenses have taken away from Mahomes, due to his past success.
Hurts leads the league when throwing 15+ air yards on go/fly, fades, post and corner routes. On his 41 attempts he has 770 yards and 10 touchdowns.
According to SIS, Mahomes is tied with Kirk Cousins when it comes to facing the most Cover-6 and prevent looks — 33 drop backs, to only 13 dropbacks for Hurts’.
Mahomes has to be focused on getting the ball out quicker to his guys who can get yards after the catch. Mahomes has the fourth-most throws within five yards or less — 319 attempts, with 26 of those resulting in touchdowns for the third-most yards in the league, 1,764.
The Chiefs have been running an effective stick route, hi-lo concept to stress the coverages on one side of the field.
This is why Mahomes’ average depth of target is only 7.3 yards and he’s averaging the highest success rate in the league, 54.1%.
Mahomes is also leading the league in total first downs, with 245. He’s also has the highest EPA on third down, 50.00:
Patrick Mahomes is the MVP: pic.twitter.com/oZZkjCMtVr
— Nick Olson (@NickOlsonNFL) December 27, 2022
He has the second highest EPA on second down, with 25.35, and third highest EPA on first down with 29.88.
This was a close one, but with Hurts’ running ability and the security blanket his receivers give him to win one-on-one battles. Mahomes is forced to use his arm to more often than not in order to move the ball down field. Mahomes takes this one.
Who's the winner?
All-in-all, it’s been five seasons since Mahomes made his NFL debut as a starter, in 2018, which was also the year he ran away with the MVP voting. Throwing a whopping 50 touchdowns sure helped, but Mahomes is playing his best ball since that rookie year. He’s leading the league in almost every single passing category.
Most seasons with 35+ Pass TD in NFL history
Years as Primary
Starter
Aaron Rodgers 6 14
Tom Brady 6 21
Patrick Mahomes 4 5
Peyton Manning 4 17
Drew Brees 4 19 pic.twitter.com/4OG20lHAV6— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) December 19, 2022
— Chiefs Outsider – Chris (@chiefs_outsider) July 22, 2022
It’s obviously no fun when the same guy is dominating year-after-year, but Aaron Rodgers is the one who’s received MVP the last two consecutive seasons. If this was any other quarterback putting up the numbers that Mahomes is putting up, he would be the MVP no-question.
Mahomes is 757 yards shy from Peyton Manning’s single season passing yard record, 5,477. Even though it’s unlikely that he obtains that many yards in the next two weeks, it’s still an impressive reach, nonetheless.
Look how he stacks up against all quarterbacks since 1999:
Even with Hurts’ improved season and taking his team from nine wins the year before to potentially getting a playoff bye, and yes, everyone loves an underdog story.
But after pulling the film and running the numbers and it’s still a little too early to call this Hurts’ MVP season. Even if this is his best season.
Unless Mahomes loses out, the trophy is likely to be his.
Although, if Hurts continues to run his offense as well as his has, he’s dynamic and efficient enough to lift something better than the MVP trophy, the Lombardi!
