PHOENIX — The Jets should give the Green Bay Packers a 2023 second-round pick, a conditional 2024 third-round pick and wide receiver Corey Davis to acquire Aaron Rodgers.
The second-rounder could be the 42nd overall selection Joe Douglas just got from Cleveland in the Elijah Moore trade, which is one pick higher than the Jets’ own pick at 43.
The conditional third could become a first-rounder if the Jets reach the Super Bowl this season or a second-round pick if they make the playoffs with Rodgers playing 60% of the snaps.
Davis would give the Packers a motivated player on a contract year while clearing millions off the Jets’ books to possibly sign Odell Beckham Jr. onto a receiving core now featuring Garrett Wilson, Allen Lazard and Mecole Hardman.
But the Jets’ No. 13 overall pick in April’s first round can’t be on the table in this trade. Even though Douglas has struggled to hit with his highest picks, that doesn’t make them any less valuable.
That range of the first round has produced Mekhi Becton (No. 11 in 2020), Alijah Vera-Tucker (No. 14 in 2021) and Wilson (No. 10 in 2022) for the Jets in the past three years.
Two out of three aren’t bad at all.
The Packers’ holdout for maximum value is natural considering Rodgers’ pedigree.
They know the Jets have committed to Rodgers as their man in 2023, too, and it would be catastrophic for Woody Johnson to lose out on A-Rod at this point.
The Jets would be taking $60 million guaranteed off the Packers’ hands by acquiring Rodgers, however, which isn’t a small part of these negotiations.
If Green Bay wants to eat some of that $60 million and make the Jets throw in a 2025 fifth-rounder, as well, fine. But otherwise, the buck has to stop there. And the Packers still would have a chance to get a first-round pick out of this proposed trade in 2024 if Rodgers and the Jets win big immediately.
Douglas needs assets to continue building his Jets offensive line and team if Rodgers is going to have any success here, not to mention want to stick around past 2023.
Back in 2008, Jets GM Mike Tannenbaum got Favre, 38, from former Packers GM Ted Thompson for a conditional draft pick that became a third-rounder. The pick had triggers and conditions attached that could have made it a first or second-rounder if the Jets had made the playoffs or gone deeper.
But Favre got hurt and the Jets fizzled after a hot start. And he only played one season in Florham Park, N.J.
In 2021, the last NFC North quarterback to bolt via trade was expensive.
The Detroit Lions’ Matthew Stafford cost the Los Angeles Rams a 2021 third-round pick, two first-rounders (in 2022 and 2023) and Rams quarterback Jared Goff.
Stafford was only 32 years old at the time, though. And there was substantial competition for him on the trade market, which drove the price up.
He had two years remaining on his current contract. There was no reason to believe he wouldn’t play several more seasons. And the Lions took Goff’s expensive contract extension off L.A.’s hands in return.
It would be reasonable for the Packers to want a huge haul for Rodgers when comparing him to Stafford in a vacuum. But they are dissimilar situations and negotiations.
Rodgers turns 40 years old in December, and there is no guarantee how long he’ll play past 2023.
The Jets have no competition for Rodgers, so the Packers can’t leverage the Jets against another bidder.
Rodgers and Stafford both asked their teams to trade them, but Stafford did it privately and Rodgers did it publicly.
That puts different pressure on the Packers than the Lions felt in 2021.
And the ongoing grudge match between Green Bay president Mark Murphy and Rodgers, of course, is clearly and predictably not helping this standoff.
A quick deal would help Rodgers move on. It would be his best-case scenario.
The Packers are motivated to get Rodgers out of their building, as well. But making Rodgers and the Jets stew a bit longer might simply be the cost of doing business given Green Bay’s complicated relationship with its great QB.
A longer wait might be fine with the Jets, up to a point — just as long as the cost doesn’t also include this year’s first-round pick.
