This edition of Paris Perspective looks at the outcome of the US midterm elections, asking why a Republican "red wave" failed to emerge, and examining the potential of American socialism ahead of the 2024 presidential face-off.
In the United States, midterm elections are seen as a referendum on how the incumbent's administration is doing, and it is rare that a sitting president comes out unscathed.
By the end of polling on 8 November, it became apparent that a Republican "red wave" – one that would secure right-wing control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives – had failed to materialise.
As it stands, the Democrats control the Senate while the Republicans have the House of Representatives – but only by the slimmest of margins in either case.
The balance of power
So, what does this knife-edge scenario mean for the next two years of President Joe Biden's mandate?
For Max Dunitz, an activist with the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), Republican control over the House of Representatives could spell havoc.
The position of Speaker will be hotly contested in the wake of Nancy Pelosi's departure after two decades at the heart of lower house debate, says Max Dunitz. "And we could expect plenty of investigations into the Biden administration," he tells RFI.
"There will be deadlock," he says, especially if "the Judiciary Committee is split evenly between the two parties." That will slow down the process of confirming judges and other presidential appointees.
Dunitz recognises that the Democratic majority in the Senate will be of some help in ensuring that administration nominees do get appointed.
The rise of DeSantis
While it wasn't a resounding endorsement of Biden's government, the vote revealed cracks in former president Donald Trump's appeal to the conservative electorate, as many of the inexperienced wannabes endorsed by Trump failed in their bid to join the big league on Capitol Hill.
Although the results of the US midterms have dealt a significant blow to Trump's re-election bid in 2024, the setback did not stop the billionaire from declaring his intentions to run earlier this week.
A boastful and belligerent Donald Trump launched the 2024 White House race on Tuesday, setting the stage for a bruising Republican nomination battle. https://t.co/pLLWQZxDNp via @RFI_En
— RFI English (@RFI_En) November 16, 2022
The clear winner in the Republican camp was Ron DeSantis, who was re-elected as Governor of Florida with a 20-point margin, a turbo boost for the ultra-conservative politician's intention to run for the Republican party's nomination for president.
Now there is a real challenger to Trump's vice-like grip on the GOP, we can expect a broader, more boisterous field in the US primaries.
"There's going to be a tough fight for the nomination," says Dunitz, but he adds that "there's not a big distinction between DeSantis and Trump in terms of policy."
Of course, there are many who believe DeSantis to be more dangerous than Trump.
"He does pick fights [with Democrats] ... he fired a prosecutor in the Tampa Bay area who wouldn't prosecute doctors who provide abortion care," Dunitz notes.
"This would suggest that he would be very focused on using his power to dismantle a lot of the competent administrative [structures] and use it for partisan aims."
Post-midterm opportunities for left-wing politics in USA
Biden's midterm report
Although the current administration is perceived as "liberal" in comparison to the rough-shod populism of the previous president's policies, how do people on the American left think Biden has done since taking office in January 2021?
Dunitz, whose group has backed Vermont senator Bernie Sanders for president in the past, says that Biden's policy of full employment has been a win for the administration.
"People have been very sour about the economy in the news media. But when you actually look at the polls, a lot of people are pretty optimistic about their own personal financial situation," Dunitz believes.
"They see the high prices affecting everyone and they say, 'okay, the economy's bad, but hey, I was part of the great resignation, I got a better job, I was able to find work that better suited my skills'."
The "great resignation" is the term used in the US to describe the record number of people who left their traditional jobs in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic, essentially reshuffling the American workforce.
"People are pretty optimistic about their own situation," Dunitz adds.
"They're able to get better jobs, they have more power to bargain with employers ... we don't have the concentrated misery that we had after the last recession [2007–2009] where there was 10 percent unemployment by the midterms".
'Distracting moral panics'
As Democrats continue to win key races and the US electorate appears to be tiring of Trumpian politics, could this be to the advantage of American socialism?
"People are pretty tired of distracting moral panics," says Dunitz.
"It's very clear that these people are not focused on the cost of rent or the cost of everyday groceries.They don't have serious plans to help people," adds Dunitz, who believes that voters are looking for someone who can offer clear proposals.
Which French political party does Bernie Sanders identify with?
United we stand, divided we fall
As an activist with the "France for Bernie" movement and the DSA's Paris chapter, Dunitz was a keen observer of this year's French elections and the gains made by the far-left, especially the emergence of a new left-wing coalition, NUPES, after the decimation of France's traditional Socialist Party in 2017.
What have been the lessonss for American socialists from 2022 French polls?
"I think the main takeaway is that the left does better when united," Dunitz says, underlining the differences between electoral systems in Europe and the US.
"In many countries, you make the coalitions after the election ... in the US, we make [them] before the election," Dunitz explains.
"The midterms in states where the Democratic Party was very united, [like] in Michigan – where the number two person in the statehouse will be a DSA member – the Democratic Party did very well.
"In New York ... where Democrats were fighting each other ... the party did very poorly, so I think the one takeaway is that the left should try to stay united," Dunitz concludes.
So will we "Feel the Bern" in 2024? Will Bernie Sanders stand again for the White House?
"I have no idea," he admits.
Watch the full video here.
Written, produced and presented by David Coffey
Recorded and edited by Yann Bourdelas
Full Interview: American socialism and the US midterms - Max Dunitz
Max Dunitz is an activist with the "France for Bernie" movement and the Democratic Socialists of America's Paris chapter.
