Paraguay and Australia meet at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara on June 25 with both sides sitting on three points in Group D, separated only by goal difference. A win for either team secures a round-of-16 place; a draw could also be enough depending on results elsewhere, but goal difference currently favors Australia. The Paraguay vs Australia World Cup 2026 predictions market has Paraguay as narrow favorites despite entering this game with the inferior goal difference.
Australia sit second in Group D on +0 goal difference, while Paraguay are third on -2. With the United States already through after two wins, three teams are competing for one guaranteed automatic berth and the possibility of advancing as a best third-place finisher. That math makes this a match where Paraguay, in particular, will likely need a win rather than a draw to feel secure.
Why This Game Matters
Paraguay need a result to advance with any certainty. Even with three points, their -2 goal difference means a draw may not be enough if Turkey beats the United States by a wide margin. Australia, sitting one place higher and level on points, are in the stronger position but cannot afford to lose. Both coaches will be acutely aware of the Turkey vs United States scoreline running simultaneously, which adds a tactical dimension to a match that already carries significant stakes. For Paraguay, returning to the World Cup after a 16-year absence, this is a chance to extend a remarkable comeback story.
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Our Pick
Australia to win at +300 (best price at BetOnline) represents the standout Paraguay vs Australia pick in this fixture, with the Socceroos holding the superior group position and having already shown defensive discipline in a 2-0 win over Turkey. At +300, the price on an Australian win accounts for Paraguay’s form but underestimates Australia’s structural advantage in this group heading into the final matchday.
Paraguay vs Australia: Preview, Picks & Betting Odds
Paraguay arrive at this fixture off a 1-0 win over Turkey, a result that kept their tournament alive after an opening 4-1 defeat to the United States. Manager G. Alfaro has built this squad around defensive organization, with experienced center-backs Gustavo Gomez (89 caps) and Fabián Balbuena anchoring a back line that held Turkey scoreless. Going forward, Paraguay rely on the creativity of Miguel Almiron (76 caps, 10 goals) and the energy of Julio Enciso to generate chances. Their counter-attacking approach suits a game where they may be required to defend a lead or chase one late.
Australia come in after a 2-0 defeat to the United States but carry a positive overall record in this group after opening with a 2-0 win over Turkey. Coach T. Popovic has organized his side in a way that relies heavily on midfield industry, with Jackson Irvine (82 caps, 14 goals) a central figure in both phases. The Socceroos’ qualifying campaign across Asia was flawless, four wins from four with a +8 goal difference, suggesting a side that performs consistently when matches are there to be won.
The Paraguay vs Australia betting odds reflect a tight contest. Paraguay are priced at +195 at BetOnline, the draw sits at +120, and Australia are out at +300. The draw price is the shortest of the three outcomes, which mirrors the logic of both teams needing to be cautious about overcommitting while also needing points. The totals market has the under 2.5 goals as the likely outcome, with the under priced at -145 across multiple books.
Recent Form & Trends
Paraguay’s last five matches:
- Turkey (A): Won 1-0 (World Cup)
- United States (A): Lost 1-4 (World Cup)
- Nicaragua (H): Won 4-0 (Friendly)
- Morocco (N): Lost 1-2 (Friendly)
- Greece (A): Won 1-0 (Friendly)
Paraguay’s two World Cup results tell contrasting stories. The 4-1 defeat to the United States exposed vulnerability against high-pressure opposition, but the 1-0 win over Turkey showed the defensive resilience and clinical edge on the counter that defines this squad under Alfaro. Three of their last five results have been 1-0 wins, underlining a low-scoring, results-oriented pattern.
Australia’s last five matches:
- United States (A): Lost 0-2 (World Cup)
- Turkey (H): Won 2-0 (World Cup)
- Switzerland (N): Drew 1-1 (Friendly)
- Mexico (N): Lost 0-1 (Friendly)
- Curacao (H): Won 5-1 (FIFA Series)
Australia’s form points to a side that is solid against opposition at their level or below but struggles to create when facing top-tier pressure. The 2-0 loss to the United States was their second defeat in five, though both losses came against higher-ranked opposition. Connor Metcalfe and Nestory Irankunda have both scored in this tournament, providing evidence that goals can come from multiple sources.
Paraguay vs Australia History & H2H Trends
The two nations have met five times, all in friendly competition, with Australia holding the stronger record. Australia won two of those meetings, Paraguay won one, and two ended level. The most recent encounter came in October 2010, a 1-0 win for Australia. All five meetings have been low-scoring, with no match producing more than two goals and three of the five ending with one goal or fewer separating the sides.
There is no competitive head-to-head history between the two nations at a World Cup or major tournament, which limits the direct historical evidence available. However, the pattern across all five friendly meetings consistently points toward tight, low-scoring encounters. That context supports the totals market lean toward under 2.5 goals in Santa Clara, where the incentives for both sides favor caution over attacking ambition in the opening stages.
Injuries, Suspensions & Roster News
Paraguay’s squad for this tournament was named by G. Alfaro at the end of May 2026 and has not been subject to significant disruption ahead of Matchday 15. The core defensive unit of Gustavo Gomez and Fabián Balbuena has been consistent throughout the group stage, and the attacking options include Julio Enciso (22, Strasbourg), Antonio Sanabria, and Miguel Almiron. Mauricio provided the winning goal against Turkey and is likely to retain his role. No specific injuries or suspensions have been confirmed ahead of this fixture.
Australia’s 26-man squad named by T. Popovic is also expected to be largely intact. Goalkeeper Mathew Ryan (104 caps) continues in goal, with Harry Souttar (27, Leicester City) a key presence at center-back. Jackson Irvine carries the most attacking weight from midfield with 14 international goals. No confirmed absentees have been reported. The Socceroos will assess the availability of any players who picked up knocks in the United States fixture, though no formal injury concerns have been confirmed.
Expected Lineups
Paraguay (4-2-3-1): Gatito Fernandez; Juan Jose Caceres, Gustavo Gomez (c), Fabian Balbuena, Junior Alonso; Andres Cubas, Braian Ojeda; Ramón Sosa, Miguel Almiron, Diego Gomez; Julio Enciso
Australia (4-3-3): Mathew Ryan; Jason Geria, Harry Souttar, Milos Degenek, Jordan Bos; Connor Metcalfe, Jackson Irvine (c), Aiden O’Neill; Nestory Irankunda, Awer Mabil, Mathew Leckie
Predicted lineups – squads to be confirmed ahead of kickoff.
Key Matchup to Watch
The duel between Miguel Almiron and Australia’s central midfield trio shapes this game. Almiron, who has 10 international goals across 76 caps, operates in the space between Australia’s midfield and defense and is Paraguay’s primary creative threat in transition. Jackson Irvine and Aiden O’Neill are industrious enough to track runners, but Almiron’s ability to receive the ball facing forward and drive at pace creates problems that are difficult to neutralize purely with a disciplined structure. If Paraguay are sitting deep and looking to counter, Almiron’s movement in behind Australia’s full-backs will be the primary mechanism for creating scoring opportunities, and T. Popovic’s ability to manage that threat through shape rather than man-marking will be tested throughout this match.
Best Bets & Expert Picks
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Australia to win: +300 (BetOnline)
Australia sit second in the group with superior goal difference and a positive head-to-head record against Paraguay. The Socceroos have beaten Paraguay in the most recent meeting between the sides and qualified for this tournament with a perfect 4W 0D 0L record across Asia. At +300, this is the best available Paraguay vs Australia betting tip given the structural advantages Australia hold heading into a decisive group fixture.
Under 2.5 goals: -145 (BetOnline / Lucky Rebel)
The historical record across all five meetings between these sides has produced low-scoring matches, with no fixture yielding more than two goals. Paraguay’s recent form includes three 1-0 wins in five matches. Australia conceded only twice in four qualifying games. The under 2.5 line at -145 reflects the favorite status of a low-scoring game and is supported by the tactical context of two defensively organized sides navigating a must-not-lose situation.
Jackson Irvine anytime scorer
Irvine has 14 international goals across 82 caps, making him the most consistent goal-scoring threat from midfield for Australia. He scored three times in the most recent scoring period before this tournament and brings set-piece danger that Paraguay’s experienced but ageing defensive unit will need to manage. Check leading operators for current anytime scorer pricing.
Paraguay vs Australia correct score: 1-0 Australia
Three of Paraguay’s last five competitive and friendly results ended 1-0, and Australia’s wins over Turkey and in qualifying have regularly been narrow. A one-goal margin either way fits the profile of both teams. Australia’s structural advantage and slightly better tournament form make 1-0 to Australia the most probable single-goal outcome. Check BetNow for correct score pricing.
Betting Odds & Lines
The Paraguay vs Australia odds from the three approved operators are listed below, with Paraguay priced as narrow home favorites and Australia available at their best price of +300 at BetOnline.
| Outcome | BetOnline | Lucky Rebel | BetNow |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paraguay | +195 | +190 | +190 |
| Draw | +120 | +125 | +125 |
| Australia | +300 | +295 | +295 |
How to Watch & Where to Bet
How to Watch
Paraguay vs Australia kicks off at 19:00 local time (UTC-7) on June 25, 2026 at Levi’s Stadium in the San Francisco Bay Area. US viewers can watch live on Fox Sports, with Spanish-language coverage available on Telemundo. Australian viewers can follow the match on SBS and Optus Sport. The fixture is also broadcast across multiple international markets including ITV and BBC in the UK, TF1 and beIN Sports in France, and Globo and SporTV in Brazil.
How to Bet
To place a bet on the Paraguay vs Australia picks and lines listed in this article, follow these steps:
- Choose one of the approved operators: BetOnline, Lucky Rebel, or BetNow.
- Visit the operator’s website and create an account if you do not already have one.
- Complete any identity verification steps required by the operator.
- Make a deposit using your preferred payment method.
- Navigate to the soccer or football section and find the World Cup 2026 Group D schedule.
- Select Paraguay vs Australia and choose your market (moneyline, totals, or other).
- Enter your stake, review your bet slip, and confirm the wager.
- Check that you have received a confirmation before closing the page.
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