In the NFL, finding a franchise quarterback is like searching for a spouse. You try and you try, and sometimes you strike out.
But when you find the right one, it’s as if nothing else matters.
For the Panthers, their search for a franchise quarterback continues.
With the draft just a month away, the Panthers are still evaluating their options. All of the elite quarterbacks who were on the market at the beginning of the offseason are now off the board. Aaron Rodgers stayed in Green Bay. Russell Wilson was traded to Denver. And after passing on Carolina, Deshaun Watson is heading to Cleveland on a fully guaranteed contract, which the Panthers declined to do.
The Panthers could draft a quarterback this year and hope he becomes a franchise player, or they could focus on the offensive line and wait until next season when the talent pool at quarterback is expected to be greater.
But the problem is that the Panthers don’t have much time. Fans have grown tired of the losses.
This is a make-or-break season for coach Matt Rhule, who will enter Year 3 on the hot seat. The Panthers must win next season, or he could be gone. Solving the quarterback conundrum now, or at least finding someone who can weather the storm until they do, is the only option. This is one of the biggest tasks for teams in the NFL.
“It’s definitely nice when you have one,” Panthers general manager Scott Fitterer said earlier this month of having a franchise quarterback. “You can sleep better at night. It’s not like you can’t win a Super Bowl without a good starting quarterback. You don’t need to have the elite guy.
“But you need to surround them with players that can compensate for some of their weaknesses.”
However, of the past 30 Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks, only three — Nick Foles, Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson — would be considered non-franchise quarterbacks. The rest are either in the Hall of Fame already, or likely on their way.
Surrounding the quarterback with pieces is what the Panthers have tried to do this offseason, signing two potential starting offensive linemen — Austin Corbett and Bradley Bozeman — and extending top wide receiver DJ Moore to a three-year contract extension.
But the Panthers won’t reach their full potential until they find their long-term option under center.
To draft one or not?
The 2022 draft is said to be one of the weaker classes of quarterbacks in recent years with no clear favorite.
Those in the Panthers organization view Malik Willis, Kenny Pickett and Matt Corral as the top quarterbacks in this draft class, worthy of first-round picks. They have second-round grades on the other top quarterbacks, including UNC’s Sam Howell.
Rhule, Fitterer and other front-office members attended the pro days last week of Willis, Pickett and Corral on consecutive days. All have qualities to like. Pickett is the most pro-ready quarterback, while Willis is said to have the most upside.
Though no decision has been made, one of those quarterbacks could be the future of the Panthers if they choose to draft one. Among the teams who hold the top five picks in the draft — Jaguars, Lions, Texans, Jets and Giants — none are expected to draft a quarterback.
Of course, that could change if one decided to trade their pick.
But at No. 6, the Panthers could have the opportunity to pick whomever they want.
“There’s going to be a narrative about strength of the class, but history says there’s going to be a quarterback that comes out here that is going to be a franchise quarterback,” Rhule said at the NFL combine. “We’re going to go through that process.”
Finding one, though, is oftentimes difficult and risky. Some end up being diamonds in the rough, like Tom Brady and Russell Wilson. Others don’t pan out.
In 2013, only three quarterbacks were taken in the first three rounds of the draft. None of those quarterbacks made a Pro Bowl. And of the 11 quarterbacks drafted that year, only Geno Smith has started more than 30 games.
Just as important as a franchise quarterback, though, are the pieces around him, said Marty Mornhinweg, a former NFL head coach, offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach. That’s why some struggle. Mornhinweg was the offensive coordinator and assistant head coach of the Eagles when Michael Vick had another breakout year in 2010.
“You need a full team for a talented quarterback to flourish,” he said. “I tend to go into the philosophy of building it from the inside out. You have to build the line along with that franchise quarterback.”
‘We can do it’
The last time the Panthers took a quarterback in the first round was in 2011. The Panthers were coming off a 2-14 season, the second-worst record in franchise history. They had cycled through multiple quarterbacks after releasing Jake Delhomme in 2009. Those quarterbacks included Matt Moore, Jimmy Clausen and Brian St. Pierre.
With the first overall pick in 2011, the Panthers took Cam Newton, who was an immediate star. He helped changed the trajectory of the franchise. He won the NFL’s rookie of the year, its MVP award and helped lead the Panthers to the playoffs four times, including one Super Bowl run. Their last playoff appearance was in 2017.
But shoulder injuries derailed his career, and since then, the Panthers have been lost, releasing him in 2020.
Since the start of the 2018 season, seven different players have started at quarterback for Carolina — eight, if you count Newton twice. (He re-signed with the team in November 2021.)
A quick refresher on those names: Newton, Kyle Allen, Taylor Heinicke, Will Grier, Teddy Bridgewater, P.J. Walker and Darnold.
None have been able to secure the starting job for long because they’ve all struggled. That includes Darnold, who passed for nine touchdowns and 13 interceptions in 12 games in 2021. There’s a good chance that by Week 2 of this upcoming year, they’ll have started their eighth quarterback in five seasons.
The Panthers’ failure to secure one isn’t for a lack of trying. They’ve tried the draft (Grier), trading for one (Darnold) and signing one (Bridgewater). They tried to trade for Matthew Stafford before the 2021 season but lost out to the Rams. Then last week tried to trade for Watson, but lost to the Browns.
The struggles at quarterback have had a direct correlation on the wins and losses, too. Since 2018, Carolina is 22-43. It hasn’t won more than five games in each of the last three seasons.
“It doesn’t matter how good or bad your roster is, if you don’t have the quarterback right, nothing else matters,” said ESPN draft analyst Jordan Reid, a former quarterback at N.C. Central. “All of these young quarterbacks around the league are transcending their franchises. Look at Cincinnati, with Joe Burrow. They haven’t had a good quarterback since Andy Dalton and Carson Palmer days, but once Joe Burrow got there, it flipped the switch with their entire rebuild.”
The Bengals were the worst team in the league in 2019. They drafted Burrow first overall in 2020, added pieces to their roster on defense and wide receiver in 2021, and advanced to the Super Bowl before losing to the Rams. Burrow was the primary reason the Bengals were where they were.
The same goes for Kansas City. That franchise went from a good team to a Super Bowl contender after drafting Patrick Mahomes.
Buffalo, too. The Bills were 9-7 in Sean McDermott’s first season in 2017 and 6-10 in 2018. Since then, they’ve made the playoffs each year.
When asked last December what changed for the franchise, McDermott mentioned sticking to the plan they had in place, being patient and “drafting Josh Allen.”
Allen, 25, who was picked seventh overall in 2018, has become one of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL in recent years. He was second-team All-Pro in 2020.
“When you have a great quarterback, it just raises the level of everyone else around them,” Marc Ross, a former NFL executive and former NFL wide receiver, said. “And just think of what Denver — in one instance to the next of getting Russell Wilson ... As soon as you get Russell Wilson, everyone thinks you can do it.
“And it just changes your whole mindset of hoping and wishing to, ‘we can do it.’ ”
What the Panthers need in a QB
Perhaps one of the biggest qualities in a quarterback you want is someone who enables you to come back in any situation. That was one of the Panthers’ issues with Bridgewater, who in 2020, was 0-8 in game-winning or game-tying drives.
While Bridgewater was accurate, he lacked the ability to truly stretch the ball downfield for long gains. The Panthers grew tired of that and moved on after one year.
A franchise quarterback has the ability to bring you back when you’re down, which raises the intensity level of everyone around him, said Bill Polian, a former NFL GM for the Panthers, Bills and Colts.
“Because they know that as long as you have that guy, you have a chance to win every single week,” he said. “That’s what that person brings.”
That’s why teams try year after year to get one.
“If you’re a general manager and you don’t have that guy, your first thought in the morning and your last thought at night is how do I get it.”
A passing league
The quarterback has always been the most important position, but never more so than it is now. More players are throwing for 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns in a season than ever before.
This past season, 10 quarterbacks threw for more than 4,000 yards. Two quarterbacks threw for more than 5,000.
Compare that to 20 years ago, and only two quarterbacks threw for more than 4,000 yards. Both of them, Kurt Warner and Peyton Manning, are in the Hall of Fame.
Go back 30 years, and only one quarterback reached 4,000 yards. (Warren Moon, 1991.)
With an increase in defensive pass interference calls, roughing-the-passer penalties and protections for the quarterbacks, the NFL rules make quarterback the most important position. They can stay in their prime longer than any other position, too.
The top two players leading the MVP race this past season were Rodgers, who is 38, and Brady who is 44. Rodgers won and was rewarded with a new contract extension earlier this month.
That’s why the Panthers were so intent on landing Watson, despite the 22 civil lawsuits from women against him alleging sexual misconduct and sexual assault. He’s was the league’s passing leader in 2020, and is regarded as one of the top 10 best quarterbacks in the league at 26.
In this league, in this era, you have to have a top quarterback to stand a chance. Denver and Cleveland (unless Watson is suspended by the NFL), should make the playoffs next year and be contenders for a Super Bowl.
But the Panthers aren’t there yet. Until they are, they’ll keep searching.
