The 2024 IndyCar Series season is nearing its end, with either Chip Ganassi Racing’s Alex Palou or Team Penske’s Will Power set to be crowned champion at Nashville Superspeedway on Sunday.
Defending champion Palou holds a 33-point advantage over Power (525-492), with both competitors seeking a third title when the checkered flag falls after 206 laps.
Power followed up his breakthrough 2014 title in 2022, interrupting Palou's run of success in 2021 and 2023.
Scott McLaughlin, Power’s team-mate, is 50 points adrift of Palou and will be officially eliminated from title contention when the Spaniard takes the green flag at the 1.33-mile oval.
There are a maximum of 54 points possible from the weekend, with 50 for a win, one for claiming pole, one for leading a lap and two for leading the most laps. However, Palou will be awarded at least five points regardless of his finishing position.
Only once in the past 11 seasons has the points leader going into the finale lost the championship, when double points were on offer during the 2015 season. That year Scott Dixon overcame a 47-point deficit at Sonoma to win the race and secure the title on countback to dethrone Juan Pablo Montoya.
If Palou finishes ninth or better on Sunday, he will hoist the Astor Cup Trophy for the second consecutive season and become the first back-to-back champion since Dario Franchitti during his sweep of the 2009-11 seasons.
A result of 12th would also clinch the title for Palou, even with Power winning the race, if the Australian failed to earn the pole or lead the most laps.
If it came down to a tiebreaker, Palou would be on the wrong end having only earned two wins this year to Power’s three. Palou’s victory at The Thermal Club would be excluded under the scenario due to it being a non-points exhibition event.
It has been an admirable fightback by Power, who was docked 10 points at the start of the season due to Team Penske’s push-to-pass scandal that also saw team-mates Josef Newgarden and McLaughlin stripped of their first- and third-place results.
Power's hopes of a come-from-behind title run will realistically require at least a podium result on Nashville's oval, where he finished 11th in 2008 during his first season in the newly unified IndyCar Series for KV Racing.
However Team Penske's oval performances this year provides reasons for optimism, as its cars have only been defeated once in the six oval races held this year, with Power triumphing in the second Iowa bout.
Palou meanwhile continues to search for his maiden oval victory, but does boast an impressive nine top fives and 16 top 10s in his last 20 starts on the track discipline since he joined Ganassi in 2021.
Several elements add to the impression that the finale will be difficult to call.
This weekend's title decider will be the first time IndyCar has ended its season on an oval since 2014, when Fontana was still on the calendar, as Nashville's event moves from its downtown street circuit that was used in 2021-23.
And no series-wide test with the full field has been staged in the build-up, although select teams have visited the track to try out different aerodynamic and tyre configurations.
Tyre supplier Firestone has brought softer alternate tyres to pair with the standard primaries. While this is a normal practice on road and street circuits, this will mark only the second time IndyCar has permitted an additional rubber compound to be used on an oval, after it was trialled at last year’s Gateway race won by Palou’s team-mate Scott Dixon.
The uncertainty of electrical gremlins and hybrid reliability provides another unknown.
Palou’s path to a third title was almost completely derailed after a battery issue, unrelated to the hybrid, left him stalled on the pace laps of the second race at Milwaukee. Fortunately, he returned, albeit several laps down, and battled through an attrition-filled race that also included a costly spin by Power.
The fact remains, though, that issues have plagued Ganassi’s machines since the introduction of the hybrid in early July. Dixon fell victim to a hybrid mishap right out of the gate, prematurely ending his title aspirations before taking the green flag at Mid-Ohio. Linus Lundqivst, Palou’s rookie team-mate, also had a hybrid failure during practice at Gateway.
Palou and Power are both deserving, but only one will further their legacy when history unfolds on Sunday.
