PEORIA, Ariz. — The Padres have locked up the big one.
Manny Machado and the team have agreed to a new 11-year, $350 million deal, multiple sources confirmed Sunday morning.
"They believed in me from Day 1, and here we are," Machado said after practicing Sunday morning. "… We're excited to be here for the rest of our careers and have this hat going into the Hall of Fame."
Machado's contract includes a $45 million signing bonus that will be spread out over the length of the deal, which is not official pending a physical and a few other details still being worked out.
"It's a good thing," Machado said with a smile. "But a few more days, I'll be better."
There is no opt-out clause in the new contract, which also has full no-trade protection for Machado, so it is highly likely he will be wearing brown and gold through 2033.
"That's the one guy that, as many pieces as we've added over the offseason and over the last year or two, the team wouldn't feel as complete or the same without Manny around," starting pitcher Joe Musgrove said. "One, for his performance, But just kind of what he's done for the team and who he has been for everybody in the clubhouse. That's the guy that everyone's kind of relied on and counted on him. When he's in the lineup, you feel pretty good about your chances to win. So imagining what it'd be like with all these great players and not him wouldn't be the same, so I'm super stoked."
Machado is in the lineup for Sunday's game against the Diamondbacks (12:10 p.m. PT, Bally Sports San Diego and 97.3-FM).
When he signed as a free agent in February 2019, Machado and his agent, Dan Lozano, acquired the ability for Machado to opt out of his 10-year, $300 million contract following the 2023 season. And Machado had said he would do so absent a new deal.
Machado in December set a deadline of Feb. 16 for a new contract to get done. The Padres offered him a five-year extension worth $105 million on Feb. 14. On Feb. 18, Machado confirmed he wanted to focus on the season and not negotiations.
Padres Chairman Peter Seidler said earlier this week that Machado was his "top priority." The sides continued to talk, and a deal was struck that, when completed, will have earned Machado $500 million over 15 total years with the Padres.
Machado's contract is the fourth in the past six months the Padres have awarded that has a nine-figure total value, following Joe Musgrove's five-year, $100 million deal signed in August, Xander Bogaerts' signing for 11 years and $280 million in December and Yu Darvish's reworked deal for six years and $108 million.
The $31.8 million average annual value of Machado's deal ups the Padres' commitments in regard to the Competitive Balance Tax by $1.8 million, pushing them barely past the $273 million third threshold. They will pay a 50 percent tax on their first $20 million overage beyond $233 million, a 62 percent tax on every dollar from $253 million to $273 million and a 75 percent tax on every dollar over that up to $293 million. A team's CBT payroll is not tallied until the end of the season, so the Padres could still slip below the third threshold.
Machado's AAV is the third-highest for all third basemen, behind the Angels' Anthony Rendon ($35 million) and Cardinals' Nolan Arenado ($32.5 million). The total value of Machado's contract is the highest for third baseman, $35 million more than the 10-year, $315 million deal Rafael Devers signed with the Red Sox last month. It is the fourth-largest MLB contract in terms of total value.
The team believes the investment in a player who will turn 31 in July is worth it because of his history and what they project as his future.
Machado has not been on the injured list since 2014. His 5,007 plate appearances since the start of the '15 season are most in the major leagues. In that span, he has played in more games (1,156) than all but Cardinals first baseman Paul Goldschmidt (1,158).
Not only can players now be further preserved by serving as a designated hitter, which became universal in 2022, but recent seasons have indicated Machado is squarely in his prime.
Since 2020, Machado ranks fifth in the major leagues in bWAR (15.0), ninth in total bases (713) and 10th in wRC-plus (139). He finished third in National League MVP voting in 2020 and second in '22.
Machado could be chasing some significant milestones in the latter years of his career.
He is on a conceivable track to reach 400 home runs as early as 2026. It would then be a countdown to the magical 500 reached by just 28 players in history. Machado is also 903 hits from 2,500 for his career.
Of the 29 players to have achieved the 400/2,500 double, just seven are not in the Hall of Fame. Two of those men (Adrian Beltre and Albert Pujols) are not yet eligible, one (Miguel Cabrera) is still playing, one (Carlos Beltran) was eligible for the first time this year and will have to overcome his role in the 2017 Astros cheating scandal and three (Rafael Palmeiro, Manny Ramirez and Gary Sheffield) have had their candidacies derailed by links to performance enhancing drug use.
There are 18 third basemen in the Hall of Fame, and those men averaged 5.5 WAR per 162 games over their career. Machado's average is 5.8.
The Hall of Fame third basemen have an average career WAR of 68.3, a mark a healthy Machado is virtually assured to surpass within four to five years.
His career WAR is 52.0 through his first 11 seasons. Should he average just 3.5 WAR over the next 11 seasons (a mark he has surpassed in six of the past seven full seasons) he would finish with the fifth-highest career WAR by a third baseman in history. Even if he is a 3.5 WAR performer each of the next six years and is just an average player (2.0 WAR) over his final five seasons, Machado would finish with an 83.0 career WAR that would rank seventh all-time among third basemen.
"Obviously, I think Goal 1 for him is to win a World Series, as it is for all of us," Padres infielder Jake Cronenworth said. "... But he's got the opportunity to do something special … and hopefully get to the Hall of Fame. That's one of those things, you don't get to see too many guys do that. To have somebody in your clubhouse that you could potentially play with at the time he gets those achievements is even more special."
