SAN DIEGO — The Padres have some work to do to keep their de facto captain beyond 2023.
"We've expressed our feelings regarding the opt-out to them," Manny Machado said Saturday, smiling wide.
Machado's candor regarding his ability to opt out of his contract after this season qualifies as news. But the idea he will do so hardly is.
Machado signed a 10-year, $300 million contract in February 2019, which at the time was the largest free-agent pact in North American sports history and now is almost certainly a little light.
Given his production to date, his age and the state of the market for top MLB talent, Machado exercising the opt-out clause midway through his contract has become a foregone conclusion.
It is something the Padres have anticipated for some time, and multiple sources said the team has been made aware that if there is no new contract by the end of the season, Machado intends to become a free agent.
At the press conference to announce the signing of Xander Bogaerts in December, Padres Chairman Peter Seidler was asked about the likelihood of securing long term the services of the star infielder the team already has.
"Our very strong intent — very strong — is to have Manny here for the rest of his career," Seidler responded.
That may well be the case.
The team has certainly stepped up to retain, acquire and attempt to acquire other players.
It is the latter two of those categories that are most significant.
The Padres let Aaron Judge know they would be amenable to paying him $400 million over 10 seasons and made an 11-year, $342 million offer to Trea Turner in the days before signing Bogaerts to an 11-year, $285 million pact in December.
That flurry of activity undoubtedly sent a message to Machado about what the Padres are willing to commit to cornerstone players.
There really is no telling what a reworked contract would entail. But people in the industry suggest that a solid 2023 by Machado would line him up to get at least an additional five or six years and another $150 million or so.
The Padres have a lot to consider about roster construction beyond 2023, as they have two key starting pitchers (Yu Darvish and Blake Snell) due to hit free agency. Juan Soto is under their control only through 2024. They have confounded many in and around the league with their spending of late, so it would be foolish to place hard limits on them. But most observers agree the team cannot keep Machado and Soto and commit long term to a top-flight starting rotation.
How Machado's big salary would fit into that matrix must be figured out sooner than later.
Privately, Padres officials have been acknowledging since last season that they expected Machado to opt out after 2023.
Padres President of Baseball Operations A.J. Preller said recently that the ball is in Machado's court to initiate discussion regarding a new deal. Preller has indicated that the team's view is that Machado is under contract for the next six years.
But that is not really the case. It's one year.
Machado opting out of his contract was practically considered a definite even before a winter in which MLB teams, including the Padres, handed out multiple large and lengthy deals to players in (or approaching) their 30s.
For Machado, who will turn 31 in July, exploring the market has nothing to do with whether he likes playing for the Padres or is happy in San Diego or enjoys his waterfront Coronado home.
It is simply good business. A no-brainer, really.
More than anything they said out loud, the looks on the faces of people around the league this winter when presented with the idea that Machado will seek a new deal revealed the simplicity of the notion. Those looks unanimously said this:
Duh.
Machado will turn 31 on July 6. He is just four months older than Bogaerts, whose contract will pay him $25 million a year and end right around the time he is turning 41.
Machado will have turned 36 during the final season of his current deal if he were to play the entirety of the 10 years. At that age, he won't be able to command a deal that would reward him at the highest possible level for another five or six years.
The time to secure his biggest payday is clearly nigh.
Teams have clearly shown the willingness to pay big bucks for a player's prime seasons by also guaranteeing big bucks for what will likely be multiple suboptimal seasons.
Judge will turn 39 around the start of his nine-year contract's final season, for which the Yankees will pay him $40 million. Turner turn be 40 midway through the final season on his contract, when the Phillies will pay him slightly more than $27 million.
What teams are doing, in essence, is deferring salary. They will be paying in the final year or two (at least) an exorbitant sum to a player whose skills will almost certainly be greatly diminished, perhaps even so much so that the player is released.
Teams are hoping that improved health science will allow for players to age better. But the reality is, hitters' production most often wanes sharply at some point in their 30s. For some, it comes shortly into their fourth decade. For others, it is their mid-30s. Only a select few are productive as they near 40.
There were just 15 hitters older than 36 in the major leagues last season, and just seven of those had more than 220 plate appearances. Albert Pujols and Justin Turner were the only ones whose OPS-plus signified they were above-average major leaguers.
What the Padres are contending with is the idea of restructuring Machado's deal to something that guarantees him big money for additional four or five years or letting go of one of this era's best players and a player on a Hall of Fame trajectory.
Machado's 50.4 WAR since 2013 is fifth highest in the majors, his 124 wRC-plus is 59th and his 127 OPS-plus ranks 18th. He has played in more games (1,394) in that span than any non-first baseman.
And he appears to be getting better.
He has over the past three seasons ranked fifth in WAR (15.0), sixth in wRC-plus (139) and 10th in OPS-plus (147) while finishing third in the NL MVP vote in 2020 and second in '22.
There are 18 third basemen in the Hall of Fame, and those men averaged 5.5 WAR per 162 games over their career. Machado's average is 5.8.
The Hall of Fame third baseman have an average career WAR of 68.3, a mark a healthy Machado is virtually assured to surpass by a good measure. Should he average just 3.5 WAR over the next six seasons (a mark he has surpassed in seven of the past nine full seasons) he would finish with the ninth-highest career WAR by a third baseman, just ahead of Ron Santo and just behind Paul Molitor. Both are in the Hall of Fame.
Additionally, Machado is on a conceivable track to reach 2,500 hits and 400 home runs. Of the 29 players to have achieved that double, just seven are not in the Hall of Fame. Two of those men (Adrian Beltre and Albert Pujols) are not yet eligible, one (Miguel Cabrera) is still playing, one (Carlos Beltran) was eligible for the first time this year and will have to overcome his role in the 2017 Astros cheating scandal and two (Manny Ramirez and Rafael Palmeiro) have had their candidacies derailed by being linked to performance enhancing drug use. Gary Sheffield is the only eligible player to have achieved those marks without being accused of cheating and not have been voted into the Hall.
Now, there is no telling what will be considered a "big" contract a decade from now. A total of 13 players had base salaries of $25 million or more in 2018. That number has more than doubled, as 29 players will make that much in '23. But no matter the context, $25 million is a lot of money to spend on a player, especially one whose skills have deteriorated to a level he is a part-time player or even a liability.
Machado's style of play, his work ethic and upward trending statistics, along with the ability to eventually move across the diamond to first base and serve as a designated hitter, could all conspire extend his longevity and make him worth the long-term investment. His burgeoning status as a San Diego icon and Hall of Fame track could also play into the Padres' thinking.
They know the work that has to be done.
"I think that's on A.J. and Peter and the organization," Machado said. "I've expressed myself on where we stand. … My focus is on trying to bring a championship to this to this team and to the to the city that's been waiting it for a long time. It's just going out there, playing baseball and let AJ and Peter and my agent handle those things."
