Much has been made of the similarities between Paddington and Giant’s Causeway, Aidan O’Brien’s “Iron Horse” at the turn of the century, before Paddington’s attempt to record a fifth consecutive Group One win in the International Stakes at York on Wednesday. Rather less attention has been paid to parallels with the Leicester City striker Jamie Vardy in his team’s title-winning 2015-16 campaign.
As Vardy racked up goals in 11 successive matches in the early weeks of the season, no match report was complete without a reference to his humble origins in non-league football. The fact that Paddington started his three‑year‑old season in a handicap similarly gets a mention after each fresh Group One success and as yet, like the Premier League’s best defenders eight years ago, his rivals have not found a way to stop him.
Whether Paddington’s efforts will also carry O’Brien’s team to the championship remains to be seen, but the £1m feature race on Wednesday could be something of a six‑pointer as John and Thady Gosden, his only serious rivals for the title, field two of Paddington’s three opponents in Mostahdaf, the second‑favourite, and the multiple Group One‑winning filly Nashwa.
A four-runner field for one of the highlights of the British Flat season means that even the last horse home will earn just over £50,000, which is good news for the owners and trainers with runners but hardly promises the kind of spectacle that a big crowd on day one of York’s Festival meeting would have been hoping to see.
That said, however, Paddington is facing a very credible new rival in Mostahdaf, whose slightly unexpected but convincing success in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot in June leaves him with just 1lb to find with the favourite on Timeform’s ratings.
And small fields can still produce memorable finishes, as Paddington proved only last month when he got the better of an extended duel with Emily Upjohn in a four-runner Eclipse. Mostahdaf, who is ideally suited by the 10-furlong trip on Wednesday, is potentially an even stronger opponent.
Paddington (3.35), though, is progressing with every race and, while he is short enough in the betting for a runner with only a pound or two in hand of the second-favourite on ratings, the likelihood of further improvement means the colt who started his season in a humble handicap remains impossible to oppose.
York 1.50: Slow starts have often made Korker a frustrating horse to follow but he definitely has the talent to land a race such as this one and the speedy Looking For Lynda should set the race up for him on the far side.
York 2.25: The form of Ballymount Boy’s run into second behind Vandeek at Goodwood this month was convincingly franked when the winner took the Group One Prix Morny at the weekend. He will be tough to beat with the step up to seven furlongs also sure to suit.
York 1.50 Korker (nb) 2.25 Ballymount Boy 3.00 Gregory 3.35 Paddington 4.10 Grappa Nonino 4.45 Pillow Talk 5.20 Zabriskie Point (nap)
Carlisle 2.05 Aighear 2.40 Suicide Blonde 3.15 Creative Style 3.45 Back Tomorrow 4.20 Red Mirage 4.55 Fortuitous Star
Bath 2.50 Mumayaz 3.25 Salvuccio 3.55 Big Jimbo 4.30 Ciotog 5.05 Lhebayeb 5.35 Calypso
Leicester 5.30 Forever A Diamond 6.02 High Point 6.32 Invincible Tiger 7.02 Alice Knyvet 7.32 Selenachorus 8.02 Metric
Kempton 5.52 City Cyclone 6.22 Swift Victory 6.52 Clear Image 7.22 Naqeeb 7.52 Adela Of Champagne 8.22 Ernie’s Valentine 8.52 Doves Of Peace
York 3.00: The unbeaten Gregory has more scope than any of his rivals and should extend his record to four from four.
York 4.10: Grappa Nonino is a rare runner in a British handicap for Dermot Weld and has an obvious chance to follow up his recent win in a big field at the Curragh.
