Lambeau Field will be the setting for Sunday’s highly anticipated showdown between the Green Bay Packers (4-2) and Houston Texans (5-1). The two trendy Super Bowl picks entering the 2024 season are hitting cruising altitude — the Packers have won back-to-back games, while the AFC South-leading Texans are riding a three-game win streak.
Can Matt LaFleur’s team score a signature early season win against one of the ascending AFC teams?
Here are five things to watch and a prediction for Week 7:
Another new kicker
After six weeks of the Brayden Narveson experiment, the Packers pulled the plug. But instead of rolling the dice with another rookie at kicker, the Packers brought aboard veteran Brandon McManus, who brings 10 years of kicking experience to Green Bay. Both general manager Brian Gutekunst and special teams coordinator Rich Bisaccia like that McManus has been “through the fire” as a kicker, both in terms of pressure kicks and kicks in various climates. McManus will get his first chance to kick for the Packers on Sunday in a big-time game against the Texans. While only an 81.8 percent kicker for his career, McManus has been excellent from inside 50 yards. Everyone in Green Bay is hoping he can stop the kicking carousel for at least the rest of the 2024 season.
Big-time battle on the edges
Keep a close eye on the edges of the offensive line when the Packers have the football because a battle will play out that could decide the contest. Ascending pass-blockers Rasheed Walker and Zach Tom will face their biggest test of the season in Will Anderson Jr. (third overall pick in 2023) and Danielle Hunter (four-time Pro Bowler). The edge rusher duo has 50 total pressures. The Texans need Anderson and Hunter to be game-wreckers because the backend of the defense is going to be missing four of more starters, including two linebackers (Azeez Al-Shaair, Henry To’oTo’o) and two players in the secondary (safety Jimmie Ward, cornerback Kamari Lassiter). If Walker and Tom keep the pair blocked up, Jordan Love and the Packers passing game could pick apart what’s left behind them.
Josh Jacobs and PA passes
Don’t be surprised if the Packers use a heavy dose of Josh Jacobs and the play-action passing game in their attempt to unlock a stingy but injury-plagued defense on Sunday. The Texans have one defensive tackle suspended (Mario Edwards Jr.), another defensive tackle questionable to play (Folorunso Fatukasi), two linebackers who won’t play (Al-Shaair, To’oTo’o) and two excellent run defenders who won’t play (Ward, Lassiter). Matt LaFleur should make the patched together Texans defense prove they can stop the run early and often. And the play-action passing game built off the run could provide a few decisive plays. Consider this: the Texans have allowed five touchdown passes and a passer rating of 126.4 against play-action passes this season, while Jordan Love has four touchdown passes (including one last week) and a passer rating of 132.1 when using play-action in 2024, per Next Gen Stats. Add it all up, and expect 20 or more carries for Jacobs and a few shot plays down the field from Love.
Pressuring Stroud
Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud is the rare quarterback who can thrive under pressure. In fact, he’s completing 61 percent of passes and averaging 9.4 yards per attempt under pressure this season — insane numbers for a quarterback. Stroud is excellent at creating an extra half-second to throw inside a disrupted pocket, and he’ll still attack down the field when pressured. Maybe the Packers can force him into a poor decision or two. Just keep in mind: Stroud has thrown only nine career interceptions on over 700 career attempts. Getting takeaways isn’t going to be easy against Stroud on Sunday.
Elite QB showdown
Elite quarterback play should be expected at Lambeau Field on Sunday. Jordan Love leads all players in touchdown passes since the start of the 2023 season, while Stroud ranks fourth in passer rating. Love threw four touchdown passes against the Cardinals and is heating up in a big way following an early season knee injury. Stroud is down his top target (Nico Collins, injured reserve) but has been consistently accurate (all six games above 63 percent completions) and efficient (five games with passer rating over 90.0.). In big games, quarterback play usually makes the difference. Sunday at Lambeau Field should be no different.
Prediction: Packers 27, Texans 24 (2-4)
The Texans have a top quarterback (C.J. Stroud), a productive and versatile running back (Joe Mixon), a Packers-killing receiver (Stefon Diggs), a veteran and cohesive offensive line, two dominant edge rushers (Will Anderson Jr., Danielle Hunter), a legit top cornerback (Derek Stingley Jr.) and a reliable special teams group. So while DeMeco Ryans’ team is banged up, especially on the defensive side, there’s no taking lightly the challenge of facing the Texans — who have won nine of their last 12 regular season games — on Sunday. Still, it’s hard not to like the Packers in this matchup. Jordan Love’s offense is healthy and starting to catch fire, and they have the playmakers to challenge where the Texans are hurting defensively. And not facing Nico Collins is a big help for Jeff Hafley’s group. I expect a back and forth showdown, but I’d also expect the Texans’ absences to show up in a couple of big spots down the stretch. Packers by a field goal (maybe a game winner from the new kicker?) over the Texans at Lambeau.
