The leaders of Pacific nations will gather in the Cook Islands this week for the most closely watched meeting on the regional calendar. The Pacific Islands Forum, or Pif, is the main political decision making body for the region. This year discussions are likely to be dominated by climate change ahead of COP28, and will also address how to manage increasing geostrategic competition – including the rise of China.
On the eve of the summit, officials confirmed the leaders of Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu and New Zealand would not attend – weakening the prospects of progress on some issues.
Here is an overview of the forum and why it matters.
Who are the members?
There are 18 members of the Pif. Australia and New Zealand are the largest economies, with the rest of the bloc drawn from Melanesia, Micronesia, and Polynesia. Tokelau, a dependent territory of New Zealand, is an associate member. Until 2016, membership was restricted to countries considered to be sovereign. However, French Polynesia and New Caledonia have become full members, even though they remain territories of France. There is an outer circle known as “forum dialogue partners”, which includes countries such as the US, China, and the UK.
What does the forum do?
The forum is the top political decision-making body of the region. It is supported by a secretariat that is based in Suva, Fiji. In 2022, the leaders adopted the 2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent. It is described as the region’s “North Star” and sets out a vision for the Pacific with reference to eight thematic areas of work, including political leadership and regionalism.
In 2023, leaders are expected to endorse the implementation plan for the 2050 strategy. This is likely to include detail on how regional organisations will support member states on critical issues such as climate change adaptation and economic development.
The chair of the group rotates through the membership on an annual basis. The current chair of the Pif is Mark Brown, prime minister of Cook Islands, and he will be the host of this year’s meeting. The Pif also uses a “troika” of leaders comprising the current chair, the previous chair, and the next chair. The troika acts as something of a “brains trust” for the forum chair. The secretariat is headed by a secretary general. That office is held by Henry Puna, former prime minister of Cook Islands.
What are the key issues to watch?
The 2023 meeting runs from 6 to 10 November. Leaders will welcome the Kiribati president, Taneti Maamau, whose absence in 2022 was the nadir of a very significant rift in the regional fabric sparked by Micronesian anger over the appointment of Puna as secretary general instead of their preferred candidate. The group appears to have weathered that storm and there are hopes that a recommitment to collective decision-making is the key to navigating an increasingly crowded and complex environment in which China, the US, and others are seeking greater access and influence.
Both the US and China are forum dialogue partners. This may make for some discomfort – especially for the US as it seeks to counter China’s rising influence. However, for the Cook Islands prime minister, Mark Brown, as host, and the Pif more generally, what is hoped for is that partners align their words and actions with Pacific priorities.
With the prime ministers of Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands and Vanuatu not attending, the meeting of the Melanesian sub-group will be so depleted as to be almost pointless. This means the chance of the Pif as a whole making any meaningful progress on the issue of West Papua is low.
Expect to see a divergence of opinion on deep sea mining in the region. This has been simmering for some time and may come to a head given Brown’s support for deep sea mining as an avenue for economic diversification. Other countries such as Vanuatu and Fiji have previously called for a moratorium.
Australia will use this meeting to push for full-throated Pacific support of its bid to host COP31 climate talks in 2026. This is largely a done deal despite calls from some, including former leaders for Pacific countries, to withhold support in the absence of increased climate ambition on the part of Australia’s Albanese government.
What’s the background of the Pif?
The forum was created in 1971 by the leaders of newly independent countries in the Pacific who were frustrated with the South Pacific Commission of the time. They were in the room when decisions about their region were made – but those decisions were in the hands of colonial powers including the UK, France and the US. Key issues such as ending nuclear testing and self-determination did not get on to the agenda. So Pacific leaders, including Ratu Mara of Fiji, created their own organisation where they were in charge.
Do members agree on everything?
Decisions are made by consensus, which is sometimes referred to as “the Pacific way”. This can make for lengthy discussions at the leaders’ retreat where the communique of the annual meeting is finalised. The forum has come together on some big-ticket items such as the South Pacific nuclear-free zone. There have also been serious divisions – some of the most significant being with Australia, in relation to curbing carbon emissions to mitigate climate change.
Dr Tess Newton Cain leads the Pacific hub at Griffith Asia Institute in Brisbane, Australia, and is a freelance journalist
