With voting already underway, and the sausage sizzle less than two weeks away, there are three things worth knowing if you are trying to work out which side is most likely to win:
- the likely result in terms of the two-party preferred vote
- the record of the electoral pendulum, based on the two-party preferred vote, in predicting election outcomes, and
- the record of the opinion polls in predicting how far the electoral pendulum is likely to swing.
Here’s how are they used together to predict a result.
