In early September, a report by the International Organization for Migration (OIM) revealed that over 140 Cubans have died while trying to reach Florida in rafts in 2024, an 18% increase compared to 2023 and with several months left in the year. The stark number is a reflection of the ongoing crisis in the island, which has been on the news recently for everything from water shortages to food scarcity.
Amid the crisis, over 850,000 people have fled Cuba for the United States over the past three years, a number that has contributed to the island's steep population decline, which was estimated at 18% by economist and demographers Juan Carlos Albizu-Campos in a recent interview with El País. The interview, however, only took into account data until 2023, so the decline in population could be even higher today.
According to the CBP, from October 2021 to the end of the 2023 fiscal year, 533,000 Cubans entered the U.S., with an additional 208,000 asylum seekers arriving between October 2023 and August 2024. A further 110,000 Cubans who benefitted from humanitarian parole since 2023 and those who migrated through other visa programs complement the figure.
The migration surge began in late 2021 when Nicaragua, a Cuban ally, lifted visa requirements for Cuban nationals, Infobae reports. The resulting exodus, described as the most significant since the Cuban Revolution in 1959, has severely impacted Cuba's demographics as many of the emigrants are young, educated professionals, leading to a "brain drain" that further weakens Cuba's economy.
The numbers are hampered even further when taking into account there also exists a "negative balance of natural growth", as Albizu-Campos warns. "There is a combination of the birth rate slowing and the decreasing number of mothers who are giving birth," he says. The Cuban government itself estimates that in 2024, births will number less than 80,000, the lowest since 1959.
In addition to the United States, many Cubans have sought to reach Latin American countries and Europe. Mexico, Uruguay, and Chile have seen tens of thousands of Cuban refugees, while Spain remains a popular destination due to the "grandchildren's law," which allows descendants of Spaniards to obtain citizenship.
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