The president of Gabon, who was ousted in a coup after elections on Saturday, was on course for a modest but clear victory, according to private polling conducted on his behalf.
The polling also showed that Ali Bongo was personally popular, even if his government and advisers were far less so. His ill-health was apparently not seen as a reason for him to stand aside.
In an announcement on Gabon’s state TV on Wednesday, the coup leaders said their republican guard chief, General Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema, had been “unanimously” designated president of a transitional committee to lead the country.
Oligui is a cousin of Bongo and used to be the bodyguard of Bongo’s father, the late President Omar Bongo, said Desire Ename a journalist with Echos du Nord, a local media outlet. He was head of the secret service in 2019 before becoming head of the republican guard.
Mark Pursey, the chief executive of BTP Advisers, said his firm had been working with Ali Bongo for 18 months before the ballot, and that polling showed he was likely to score just under 50% in the first-past-the-post system, well ahead of his nearest rival with about 40%. The official results showed he had polled closer to 64%, out of line with Pursey’s private polling and an exit poll.
Pursey also said the polling showed that although French culture, including food and films was popular, French politicians and the country’s influence were deeply unpopular across all age groups. He said the only exception to the hostilitywas among Gabon’s wealthy elite. Bongo went to school in France and studied at the Sorbonne in Paris.
Britain was relatively popular. Gabon joined the Commonwealth in 2022, and many schoolchildren have said they want to learn English rather than French, which was seen to offer fewer economic opportunities.
Pursey also said months of polling revealed no desire in any section of Gabon society to reject democracy or for power to be transferred by any means other than the ballot box. “There had been concern due to Gabon’s recent history of failed coups that there might be trouble after the election, and it now looks like this coup was very well planned ahead of the election, and not as a response to the results. I think there is little likelihood that this coup will not stick, but we will see,” he said.
Pursey said key members of Bongo’s staff, including his son, were arrested together by their guards as they celebrated the election results. His firm had been working with Bongo on polling, message development and his campaign, the focus of which had been to remind voters that he had a record of delivery, including the provision of a nationwide network of buses and private health insurance.
Among those arrested and held at the military headquarters include Nourreddin Bongo Valentin, the president’s son, Jessye Ella Ekogha, the president’s director of communications and Mohamed Ali Saliou, the president’s chief of staff.
The first lady, Sylvia Bongo Ondimba, has been released, as has Marion Scappaticci, a French-born adviser to the president.
