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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
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Tarik Abou-Chadi and Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte

Our research makes it clear: by capitulating to the right, Labour is driving voters to Reform UK

Nigel Farage at a Reform UK press conference in London, 22 September 2025.
Nigel Farage at a Reform UK press conference in London, 22 September 2025. Photograph: Victoria Jones/Shutterstock

As the Labour party gathers in Liverpool this weekend for its annual conference, everyone will be discussing one word: Reform. Nigel Farage’s party is polling nationally around 13 points ahead of the Conservatives and 10 points ahead of Labour. Even in Merseyside, whose 16 constituencies used to be Labour safe seats, the party no longer seems assured. The government’s strategy for dealing with this has so far been shaped by an overwhelmingly flawed instinct: if Farage’s latest party is winning votes by talking tough on immigration, then Labour should shift rightwards too.

Starmer’s “island of strangers” speech earlier this year marked a dramatic turn to the right on immigration. That infamous moment marked the publication of a government white paper that promised to clamp down on net migration, and blamed immigrants for overstretching public services – ignoring how chronic disinvestment has left many of those services threadbare. Farage could barely contain his delight at Labour’s new strategy. He congratulated Starmer for “learning a great deal” from Reform UK. Imitation really is the greatest form of flattery.

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