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The Conversation
The Conversation
Politics
Matthew Lebo, Professor and Chair, Department of Political Science, Western University

Our reliable election forecast model predicts British Conservatives will lose big

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s election call for July 4 was a surprise. Since the government could stay in power another six months and have an election in early 2025, why did Sunak opt to go early?

It’s unlikely the early call provides some unique opportunity to extend the Conservative Party’s rule yet again. Rather, a big loss is inevitable, and Sunak is perhaps being wise by getting this behind him and avoiding even worse outcomes such as losing the confidence of his party before an election. Avoiding a catastrophe might be the best Sunak can hope for.


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