Week 13 is on the horizon; this means we’re officially two-thirds of the way through the 2023 NFL regular season.
There’s plenty to be learned from the first 12 weeks of the march to Super Bowl 58. The Philadelphia Eagles have fallen into a pattern than involves antagonizing their own fans before eventually gritting out wins. The Baltimore Ravens have risen to the top of an AFC with plenty of good teams but none terrifyingly great. And the San Francisco 49ers spun out for a minute in the middle of the season but seem like a juggernaut once more.
Let’s take that data and project out to February. Super Bowl weekend is the backdrop to the NFL Honors, which will crown 2023’s best players in categories ranging from impact newcomers to most impactful overall stars. We decided to give out those awards, ranging from MVP to most improved player. Here’s what we came up with.
MVP
Christian D’Andrea: Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
Look, I don’t love it either. I’m willing to hear arguments about Lamar Jackson or Jalen Hurts or Dak Prescott if he finally beats a team with a winning record. If someone were running for 2,000 yards or on pace to haul in 150 catches for a playoff team? Hell yeah, let’s pick a non-quarterback. Someone gets to 25 sacks but catching fire over the final third of the season? That’s probably my guy!
But there’s no front runner right now, and in terms of overall value it’s hard to ignore the fact San Francisco is 6-0 when Purdy posts a passer rating of 95.0 or better and 2-3 when he doesn’t. Purdy leads the league in most passing efficiency metrics, from passer rating to QBR to EPA.
I understand every game Purdy plays in Kyle Shanahan’s offense is graded on a curve. He’s thriving in the same offense designed to erase Jimmy Garoppolo’s flaws and looks incredible because, unlike Handsome James, he can’t be relied on for one terrible, inexplicable throw per quarter. But Purdy is also completing 60 percent of his deep passes (20-plus yards downfield) and 65 percent of his intermediate throws 10-19 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. He’s not just thriving on screen passes; he’s finding windows and exploiting them.
So (huge exhale) … give me Purdy as the league’s most valuable player through 12 weeks, with the warning that his place at the top is extremely precarious. He’s doing everything the Niners have asked, even if he’s not quite inside the circle of trust in big moments. He’s got six weeks left to cement his claim as an MVP candidate, if not more.
Robert Zeglinski: Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins
I said something completely different on our weekly NFL show (sorry, Christian), but I think this is a year where we can’t reward merely good quarterback play. To me, it’s obvious MVP has become an offensive signal-caller honor, but we should at least have some standards. Unless a quarterback’s season is absolutely special with him unequivocally being the best player in the sport, someone else achieving something incredible should be rewarded.
In this case, that is Tyreek Hill. The Dolphins’ superstar receiver is on pace for the first 2,000-yard receiving season in NFL history and is unquestionably the best player on a Miami team prepared to win its first division title in roughly 15 years. Without Hill’s capacity to break games wide open, South Beach football is nowhere nearly as relevant.
The numbers bear out a similar story in Hill’s favor. Hill’s 1,324 receiving yards is over 40 percent of Miami’s passing offense production. Hill has seven 100-yard efforts in 11 games and has caught less than eight passes in an outing on just three occasions. Mike McDaniel and Co. funnel their entire offense through Hill and his trademark explosiveness and he almost never disappoints.
A lot can change in the coming weeks. But I don’t see any team remaining on the Dolphins’ schedule proving capable of stopping him from hitting the century mark in another game. If the Dolphins can win the AFC East and he eclipses 2,000 receiving yards, give Hill his flowers without blinking.
Offensive player of the year
CD: Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers
You’ll get no quarrel from me if you want to put whomever your quarterback MVP runner-up is here. Lamar Jackson would be a great choice in either spot. But since I’m already singing the Niners’ praises, well, might as well bring up the guy who leads the NFL in both rushing yards and total touchdowns (16 in 11 games).
McCaffrey isn’t just a scoring machine. He’s the metronome that keeps the San Francisco offense on time. His 53.9 percent success rate on run plays ranks second among all tailbacks with at least 150 carries. His 58.6 percent success rate when targeted ranks second as well. Whether on the ground or through the air, he’s making things easier for Purdy and either moving the chains or creating third-and-manageable situations that buoy an offense that ranks fourth in the NFL in total time of possession.
McCaffrey’s on pace for more than 2,000 yards from scrimmage and 25 touchdowns for the league’s third-ranked offense. If this award doesn’t go to a quarterback, it’s his to lose.
RZ: Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers
Yeah, it’s McCaffrey, and this, frankly, isn’t all that close. Kyle Shanahan traded for the superstar runner and helped him achieve his final form. McCaffrey’s 2023 – where he has 16 touchdowns in 11 games and is averaging 5.5 yards per touch – is the best an NFL running back has looked in years. He is the apex multipurpose backfield player and the ultimate Play-Doh for professional football’s finest offensive mind. The 49ers might romp their way to Super Bowl 58 expressly because no one can stop the Perfect Running Back from taking over a game.
Defensive player of the year
CD: T.J. Watt, Pittsburgh Steelers
Myles Garrett felt a pop in his shoulder in Week 12, making an extremely difficult decision a little easier for me. Watt’s havoc creation and versatility probably would have given him the edge regardless, but if I’m projecting a world where Garrett misses time or is forced to play with one arm then it clears the path for another DPOY trophy for Pewaukee’s favorite family.
Watt leads the league in sacks (13.5). He’s second in quarterback hits (25). He’s forced three fumbles and recovered three fumbles, including one for a touchdown. He’s swatted down six passes and has an interception. He’s devastating as a pass rusher or peeling off blockers to attack the run and his 4.7 percent missed tackle rate is a career low.
Garrett, comparatively, is also extremely good. And he’s doing this for a similarly built team that needs every ounce of his effort to overcome a subpar quarterback situation. This race is by no means over and done with. There’s still room for Nick Bosa (five sacks in his last three games) or Micah Parsons or, hell, Josh Allen (five sacks, eight quarterback hits his last four games) to steal the crown. But right now, in terms of overall impact, Watt is my guy.
RZ: Roquan Smith, Baltimore Ravens
An inside linebacker hasn’t won a Defensive Player of the Year award since Luke Kuechly in 2013. I get that DPOY has also often morphed into “Who has the most sacks on a popular team?” but this feels like a year where an off-ball player should be highlighted.
Enter Roquan Smith.
The former Chicago Bear has been a godsend for the Baltimore defense. Smith is the leader Mike Macdonald needs for his top-flight unit and the player who takes on every vital responsibility. Need someone to erase a middle-of-the-field threat? Smith is your man. Need someone to erase the angle of a speedster from sideline to sideline? Smith is your guy. Need an impact playmaker to force a turnover? Heck, yes, Smith’s table is ready.
Smith is projected to have career highs in tackles (179) and passes defensed (9) and is one of Pro Football Focus’s highest-graded off-ball players. Even that reality doesn’t seem to do the game’s premier linebacker proper justice. Maybe when he takes a rough and grimy Ravens defense on a deep playoff run, the greater football world will start to appreciate him more.
Coach of the year
CD: DeMeco Ryans, Houston Texans
The Texans’ offense has risen from 31st in overall DVOA last season to ninth in 2023. Their defense has gone from 28th to 20th. This isn’t the result of a rising tide of veteran free agents arriving in Houston. It’s because Ryans has been able to take the young talent he inherited from a bad team and meld it with a solid draft class of rookie contributors to supercharge his franchise’s rebuild.
That’s enough to give him an edge over a solid class that includes Mike McDaniel (guided Tua Tagovailoa to the AFC East’s top record), Mike Tomlin (7-4 despite presence of Kenny Pickett), Kevin Stefanski (in a similar boat with the passing-challenged Cleveland Browns), Dan Campbell (leading the NFC North, but everyone kinda expected that) and Kyle Shanahan (once again a dominant force despite a QB no one really, truly trusts).
RZ: Sean Payton, Denver Broncos
You’re damn right I’m going there.
Just a few short months ago, the Broncos were dead in the water. No one recovers from 1-5. Teams with those kinds of nightmare starts begin draft scouting in earnest because they know they’re going to have a top pick. And when it came time for a firesale at the trade deadline, the Broncos and Payton balked. Forget trading Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, or Justin Simmons – they were about to go on a run. It seemed silly at the time, but maybe we shouldn’t have been laughing at a coach with Payton’s track record.
In a five-game winning streak, Denver has beaten some solid teams like the Vikings, Bills, and Browns. It even toppled the reigning Super Bowl champion Chiefs for the first time in nearly a decade. Russell Wilson is playing some of the most efficient “point guard” football of his career, and a defense that allowed 70 points in Week 3 is suddenly locking everyone down.
Payton has a reputation for a being sublime play-caller and play-designer. He deserves just as much credit for playing captain, righting the ship at Mile High, and revitalizing the Broncos as he promised.
Offensive rookie of the year
CD: C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
I’m not sure anyone else will even steal a vote from Stroud, the quarterback who has a team with 11 total wins the last three seasons in position to find a playoff bid. Stroud currently ranks in the top 10 in passing yards, touchdowns, success rate, yards per attempt, passer rating and QBR. He has one of the lowest interception rates in the league. He led two game-winning drives and threw as many touchdown passes in one game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (five) as Kenny Pickett had in his first seven games of 2023.
This is stunning first-year stuff. Stroud isn’t rattled by pressure and levels up his game in big moments. His success goes beyond quantifiable stats; he passes every eye test. He’s the no doubt rookie of the year.
RZ: C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
The best season by a rookie quarterback ever. Move over Cam Newton and Justin Herbert. A legitimate MVP case. A player who is elevating the sum of his parts on a woeful team that deserves three wins, not serious AFC playoff consideration.
We have never seen a first-year signal-caller as advanced as Stroud. He processes, anticipates, and gunslings like a 10-year veteran. The Texans have themselves a legitimate franchise quarterback and someone who might help them challenge the NFL’s upper crust soon enough.
Defensive rookie of the year
CD: Devon Witherspoon, Seattle Seahawks
There isn’t a runaway front runner on this side of the ball who can compare with Stroud. Jalen Carter has made his impact felt while playing only 54 percent of the snaps for the Philadelphia Eagles. Byron Young has five sacks for a Los Angeles Rams team in desperate need of foundational defensive talent. Teammate Kobie Turner has been productive alongside Aaron Donald up front.
But the player who has impressed me the most this season is Witherspoon, a dynamic playmaker who combines the best aspects of early-stage Jamal Adams, only at cornerback instead of safety. The former fifth overall pick has lived up to expectations, bringing sticky coverage (a 77.3 passer rating allowed, per Pro Football Reference) and versatility when asked to creep toward the pocket (19 blitzes, three sacks, four tackles for loss).
Given Geno Smith’s regression, the Seahawks have to lean heavily on their defense in hopes of a deep playoff run. Witherspoon can be an eraser from the second level; his talent opens up a new chapter in coordinator Clint Hurtt’s playbook.
RZ: Brian Branch, Detroit Lions
Witherspoon would’ve been my answer a couple of weeks ago. Then the Seahawks’ defense turned into a sieve the moment it started playing real teams. I, personally, think an individual performance needs to stand out on a top-tier unit. With that in mind, I’m pivoting to Brian Branch.
It’s not a sexy or flashy pick and he probably has zero chance of winning, but Branch’s tenacity and leadership for a sterling Lions’ back-end has moved me. He is the tone-setter. He is excellent in coverage. And he is rarely out of position in a safety role that demands perfection. For a defensive rookie to look this good is rare. Branch is a do-it-all Swiss Army Knife that embodies the tough guy culture Dan Campbell wanted to instill in Detroit.
Comeback player of the year
CD: Rashan Gary, Green Bay Packers
I kinda hate that this award is compulsory. Sometimes the only thing a player is coming back from is poor management or a season spent with the Carolina Panthers. Oh hey, speaking of, here’s Baker Mayfield!
Mayfield is a valid pick, but I’d prefer a little more adversity in my extremely subjective definition of “comeback.” That suggests Gary, fresh off 2022’s torn ACL, fits the bill. The former first round pick was on his way to a breakout season before being cut down by injury. He hasn’t quite regained his stride in 2023, but he’s been a valuable member of an overtaxed Packers defense just the same.
His 16 quarterback hits, 22 pressures and 8.5 sacks are all top 15 numbers among NFL defenders. He’s had two multi-sack games, each in vital conference wins over the Detroit Lions and New Orleans Saints. He’s still got room to grow, too; after playing sparingly to begin the season he’s taken the field for at least half Green Bay’s defensive snaps each of the last six weeks.
RZ: Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos
Wilson is sixth in the NFL in touchdown passes (20), fifth in passer rating (103.4), has the league’s second-best touchdown percentage (6.3 percent) and the fourth-best interception rate (1.3 percent). He might not be testing defenses downfield much anymore and is probably a shell of himself, but this efficient version of Wilson can win with a solid Broncos team around him.
After we spent an entire year clowning Wilson for having more bathrooms in his house than touchdown passes, it’s a stunning turnaround. I’m frankly shocked he’s not receiving more Comeback consideration.
Most improved player
CD: Justin Madubuike, Baltimore Ravens
D’Andre Swift’s rise from unwanted in Detroit to a starring role with the NFC’s top team merits consideration, but he isn’t drastically better than he was in 2022, just healthier and utilized more. Nico Collins went from complementary wideout in a bad offense to someone capable of averaging five catches and 80 yards per game in a top 10 Texans passing attack. Kirk Cousins would have been a solid fit here if he hadn’t gotten injured and Joshua Dobbs’ season has been so uneven that it’s tough to throw all my momentum behind him.
Instead, let’s look at the defensive side of the ball. Josh Allen’s recent breakout makes him a candidate, though he’d played at a similar level early in his career. DaRon Bland has gone from useful rotational piece and occasional starter to pick-six machine with the Dallas Cowboys. Robert Spillane was thrust into a starting role in a depleted Las Vegas Raiders defense and responded with a Pro Bowl-caliber campaign.
But my guy here is Madubuike. After recording 8.5 sacks and 16 quarterback hits his first three seasons in the league he’s currently at 10 and 21, respectively, through 12 games. That’s significantly more than either Chris Jones or Aaron Donald, the standard bearers when it comes to sacks from an interior line position, have this season. It’s possible no player has made himself more money on the 2024 free agent marketplace with his play this season than Madubuike – and that’s enough to earn him my vote for MIP.
RZ: James Cook, Buffalo Bills
Sometimes, it’s a matter of opportunity. For running backs who need more touches, this is especially true. With Buffalo moving on from Devin Singletary, it turned to Cook as the new bellcow back of Ken Dorsey’s, er, Joe Brady’s offense. While the Bills occasionally struggle to feed Cook properly, he certainly maximizes his chances. The second-year tailback has five games with at least 100 yards from scrimmage and, not by coincidence, the Bills have shined most when he’s received a lion’s share of touches.
This is not a conversation about how the Bills have misused Cook, though. It is about him ascending to NFL backfield stardom and becoming precisely the complementary running mate Josh Allen needs for the second phase of his NFL career.
