Opposition pro-democracy parties took the lead in an early vote count in Thailand’s national elections, which appeared to signal a firm rejection of the military-backed government that has ruled the country for almost a decade.
According to a preliminary count of more than 80% of the country’s 95,000 polling stations, the progressive Move Forward party was projected to win 114 of 400 constituency seats in the House of Representatives, with Pheu Thai taking 112 constituency seats. Voters have two ballots, and so a further 100 party seats in the house ares allocated on a proportional representation basis.
The party of the incumbent, Prayuth Chan-ocha, a former army chief who first came to power in a coup in 2014, had a projected 25 constituency seats. A staunch royalist and conservative, Prayuth has run a strongly nationalistic election campaign, warning that opposition parties’ promised reform will bring chaos.
Move Forward, which has built a strong following among young people, appeared to have outperformed expectations. In early voting it was neck and neck with Pheu Thai, a party that has won the most seats in every election since 2001.
At the Move Forward headquarters in Bangkok, frequent cheers broke out as young supporters and MPs followed the results into the night.
Among their victories was Bang Bon, in Bangkok, which was previously held by Pheu Thai’s Wan Ubumrung, the son of one of the party’s powerful veteran politicians. According to unofficial results, Wan lost to 28-year-old Rukchanok Srinork, known as Ice, a former protester who won over the public by cycling around her constituency canvassing for votes. On social media, an image of her bike went viral, with the caption “This is a legend in the making, she rode a bicycle to fell an elephant.”
Younger generations have been drawn to Move Forward’s pledge to demilitarise politics and break up monopolies. It is also the only party to promise to reform the lese-majesty law, under which criticism of Thailand’s powerful monarchy can lead to 15 years in prison.
Sunday’s election is the first to be held after youth-led mass protests in 2020 shocked the establishment by calling not only for the removal of Prayuth, but also for the influence and wealth of the monarchy to be curbed – criticising an institution previously considered untouchable. Campaigning has featured unprecedented discussion of the lese-majesty law, a new fault line in Thai politics. “It’s the first time in history that every political party has to talk about their stance on this sensitive topic,” said Prajak Kongkirati, a political scientist at Thammasat University in Bangkok.
This year’s election is “not only a referendum on the military, but the whole establishment”, he said, citing the increased questioning of the royal family’s role in society. The vote, Prajak said, “will be a crucial step for Thailand to return to democracy”. But he added: “The path may not be smooth.”
Parties are competing for 500 seats in the House of Representatives on Sunday, but even if opposition parties do well, it is unclear what the next government will look like. A future prime minister will be voted on jointly by the elected lower house and the senate, where the 250 sitting members were appointed by the military after the last coup.
Pheu Thai and Move Forward could form an alliance – but this may be opposed by the senate.
“The electoral results can be predicted easily, but the government formation is very unpredictable,” said Siripan Nogsuan Sawasdee, a political scientist at Chulalongkorn University.
Surangkana Kornsawat, 27, who works in a beauty clinic, turned out to vote in Khlong Toei, Bangkok, and was among many supporting Move Forward. “I want to see a new future Thailand, for new people to come and work for the country,” she said, adding she was tired of the ruling military-backed party. “I’ve been feeling the impact of them for eight years and it’s really bad. It’s a lot – too much to say. The electricity bill is high, the economy is bad.”
She wanted democratic change, she added, including reform of the lese-majesty law. If Pheu Thai won, that would also be OK, she added: “I’m just anti-dictatorship.”
Katanyu Muenkhamruangm, 28, an activist who spent 56 days in prison for her protests and who now works with the Progressive Movement, the sister organisation of Move Forward, said she could not believe the results when they emerged on Sunday evening. “I said: ‘The young generation, they wake up late and then go late, [their votes] are all on the top,’” she said, as she followed results from Move Forward’s headquarters. “I still don’t believe it yet.”
People had voted knowing that Move Forward promised to reform the lese-majesty law, she said.
Opposition candidates could face extraparliamentary moves that would keep them from power. Last week, a complaint was filed against Pita Limjaroenrat, the leader of Move Forward, claiming he owns undeclared shares in a media company. He has denied any wrongdoing.
Complaints have also been filed against Pheu Thai.
For two decades, Thai politics have been shaped by division between Pheu Thai’s Shinawatra family and the conservative military establishment. The power struggle between the two sides has resulted in long-running street protests and two military coups.
However, the early vote count appears to signal a dramatic shift. “After two decades, this certainty of Thai politics has been overturned. The era of Pheu Thai dominance of electoral politics is over,” Ken Mathis Lohatepanont, a political commentator, wrote on Twitter.
