You may have seen the latest viral trend: women asking the men in their lives how often they think about the Roman Empire. Apparently, the answer is: quite often. This is curious for a couple of reasons. First, because the Roman Republic was a far more interesting period. And second, because many of the men I know dedicate a surprising amount of their emotional bandwidth to thinking about the Liberal Democrats.
For Labour folk, the Tories are the opposition. This is a delightful example of main character syndrome because, most of the time, the Tories are in fact the government. Meanwhile, truly epic levels of ire are directed from Labour to the Lib Dems, and vice-versa. Is it the narcissism of small differences, or something else?
Before we can even attempt to answer that question, we first need to clear up a major misconception. The Lib Dems, or their previous iterations, including the Social Democratic Party, are not the reason why Labour has spent most of its existence in the wilderness. Indeed, this is the greatest misconception about the 1983 general election.
Many people assumed that it was a split on the left that enabled Margaret Thatcher to win a landslide victory in 1983. To disabuse yourself of the notion, check out this fascinating piece by election analyst Matt Singh. He points out that the Liberal-SDP Alliance won roughly the same number of votes from Labour and the Conservatives. In other words, Michael Foot was not a Limehouse Undeclaration from becoming prime minister.
But I digress. Fast forward to the present and our political editor, Nicholas Cecil, has spoken to Sir Ed Davey on the eve of his party’s conference. In a wide-ranging discussion, the Lib Dem leader said he was aiming to scoop up a number of Tory seats in the London commuter belt, including those of his former cabinet colleagues Jeremy Hunt (majority: 8,817) and Michael Gove (majority: 18,349).
The Lib Dems can be helpful to Labour in this regard. Indeed, it was widespread anti-Tory sentiment that helped to deliver Tony Blair’s first landslide. But is there a danger that the two parties fail to work together, thereby allowing the Tories to sneak through the middle? That’s certainly a possibility in the Mid Bedfordshire by-election, taking place on 19 October.
Yet the reality is this will not save the Tories for one simple reason: there aren’t enough three-way marginals in England. Indeed, as The Times’s Patrick Maguire points out in his excellent column, of the 91 seats in which Lib Dems finished second in 2019, 80 are Conservative-held, and almost all of them in the south. In other words, the next election will be much more a Tory vs both Labour and Lib Dems rather than the latter two fighting against each other.
Mid Bedfordshire is a bit of a red herring. With a Tory majority just shy of 25,000, it is as safe as they come. Even if the Conservatives just about hang on next month, that is very much not good news for them. At a general election, Labour-Lib Dem squabbles might make the difference between a few Tory holds here and there, but it is unlikely to impact the make-up of the next government.
The other point to note is that, even short of a formal Lib-Lab pact, the voters are pretty good at working out which is the best-placed anti-Tory party, should that be their priority. So here it is: the Lib Dem newsletter of the year. But that is not to say the party won’t have a big say on the future shape of British politics.
In the comment pages, Tracey Emin reflects on her 26-year-old self, standing on Waterloo Bridge, staring into the abyss as sheets of rain came pouring down, having undergone an abortion that went wrong.
Robbie Smith reviews Walter Isaacson’s biography of Elon Musk and asks whether the space entrepreneur is about to fall back to Earth. While Radio 5 Live presenter and Spurs fan, Nihal Arthanayake, says big Ange Postecoglou has changed everything.
And finally, ok this is one that if you know, you know, but if you don’t, you really need to. An ode to the Hackney Downs Puddle — East London’s most unlikely celebrity.
Have a good one. COYG.
