The war in Ukraine is reaching another major climax, a decision point, as Russia presses forward in its autumn counter offensive round Kursk, and its attack on the strategic hub of Pokrovsk on the central front.
Against the background chatter of diplomatic toing and froing, high level discussions in Washington, threats and counter-threats between Moscow and Nato, winter is bringing a grim new reality. Russia is setting out to bomb Ukraine’s critical infrastructure – electricity especially – to uselessness. The aim is for as many Ukrainians to freeze in the dark in the months to come.
For the past few weeks waves of attack drones, cruise missiles, glide bombs and hypersonic missiles have been launched at targets across the country – as far west as Lviv and a few miles from the borders with Nato partner countries.
Russia has the numbers in terms of troops on the ground and the sheer volume of drones and missiles – yet a surprising number of these have been begged, borrowed and adapted from Iran.
There are signs of growing nervousness, however. Russian losses have been colossal – the grinding infantry attacks out of Donetsk, round Kursk and Khakiv are seeing over a thousand casualties – killed and injured – each day. Western intelligence analysis now estimates that Russian forces have lost more 610,000 killed, missing and grievously wounded since February 2022. This level of attrition cannot be sustained for another year.
The Russian command has adopted risky tactics – at the beginning of the week, Russian armed drones flew into the air space of Latvia and Romania – both Nato partners. The Romanian command asked Nato HQ permission to shoot down the marauding drones. This could have invoked Article 5 of the Nato treaty, meaning the alliance would have to unite in fighting the aggressor. To avoid hostilities, Romanian F-16s escorted the intruder back towards Ukraine.
Two days ago, a freighter carrying grain from Ukraine was attacked by Russian missiles in the Black Sea – the first time a civilian ship has been targeted since the war began. The incident is still under investigation.
Ukraine’s allies know they have to act before Iranian missiles can be brought into action
This week, US and UK agencies confirmed that Russia was receiving some 200 FATH 360 short range missiles from Iran – arriving, apparently, in seven ill-concealed cargo ships. They are a response to the highly affective HIMARS medium range, satellite guided rocket system.
Ukraine’s allies know they have to act before the Iranian missiles can be brought into action. This has been the main feature of the visit by the two foreign ministers, Antony Blinken and David Lammy to Kyiv this week and now the mini-summit between President Biden and Sir Keir Starmer in Washington.
They know they have to decide to allow President Zelensky’s forces to use deep-strike long-range missiles to attack the Russians, and Russian air bases in particular, far from the front line. This means giving the green light to firing into Russian territory long range cruise weapons such as the UK’s Storm Shadow and its cousin the French Scalp, possibly the German Taurus, and the US ATACM and AGM 158 JASSM – a more powerful version of Storm Shadow.
Vladimir Putin has responded by kicking out six British diplomats, dubbing them spies, and swearing that a use of the long-range weapons from the US, UK, France and Germany would provoke a “war with Nato.”
According to sources the decision has already been taken – Ukraine will be allowed to use the long range missiles, though there will be no fanfare to announce this. They are the best hope for Ukraine’s commanders to stabilise the battlefront – where they are suffering from grievous lack of reserves and shortage of ammunition.
Some observers have already discounted the value of the missiles, as in the words of one on the BBC: they “don’t deliver a knockout blow.” This misses the principal role of the missiles in striking logistical facilities, from bomb and munition dumps, to fuel supply lines, and forming up points for recruits – often untrained – being pushed to the front.
Putin will respond with a familiar bag of tricks, bluff, bluster and deception. He will threaten nuclear weapons – and all out destruction – most of which will be empty rhetoric and hot air. He will also plan to do something where the public and media aren’t looking – disrupt fuel infrastructure, communications and IT systems across western Europe, and renew attacks by proxies in the Red Sea, and the eastern Mediterranean.
He will also offer to open talks for peace – but only if this supports his underlying scheme for continuing the war. After all, it is the war is the thing that keeps him in power now.
