A move of “desperate vandalism”. That’s the view of Robert Fox, the Standard’s Defence Editor, on the destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam on the Dnipro River, which Volodymyr Zelensky has blamed on Vladimir Putin.
The UK blamed the dam breach on Russia’s invasion, but has thus far stopped short of directly accusing Putin of blowing it up. Meanwhile, EU president Charles Michel called it a “war crime,” adding: “We will hold Russia and its proxies accountable.”
Constructed in 1956, the Soviet-era dam holds 18 cubic kilometres of water. That is a lot, and it is now flowing, uncontrolled, downstream, towards civilians. For an idea of the expanse of land that could soon be submerged, see these pictures here.
As Political Editor Nicholas Cecil reports, the Russian-held Ukrainian town of Nova Kakhovka was already under water by midday, after levels were said to have risen ten metres. Video footage here captures entire houses being washed away by the ensuing torrent.
Beavers have been spotted in Kherson and swans gliding through downtown Nova Kahkovka, but the reality is this threatens ecological disaster. The dam’s destruction is likely to lead to a shortage of drinking water and irrigation for crops. Ukraine also says 150 tonnes of engine oil have been released as a result of the explosion, further endangering people, wildlife and livelihoods.
Concerns have also been raised over the safety of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, Europe’s largest and currently held by Russian forces. The river is used to provide cooling for the plant, though all six reactors are in shutdown and therefore require far less cooling. The International Atomic Agency tweeted earlier that there is “no immediate nuclear safety risk”. Remarkable really, when you consider the plant has already endured shelling, blackouts, low staffing and the Russian occupation itself.
While the explosion may succeed in slowing a Ukrainian counter-offensive, given the damage to Russian-held areas, it does not suggest a huge amount of confidence in the Russian military’s ability to defend what was a major crossing point. Particularly as the burst also threatens water supplies to Crimea, annexed by Putin in 2014.
These events serve as a reminder that war is, to quote Michael Kofman, contingent. For weeks if not months, many in the West have been waiting impatiently for a Ukrainian counter-offensive, as if it were a next-generation Xbox. Yet as it appears to have commenced, the country must now also manage a major humanitarian and ecological catastrophe, one that will require vast government resources and lead to yet more hardship for ordinary Ukrainians.
Which is in many ways the point. Kyiv now has Western weapons and training far beyond its capabilities six months ago, let alone in February 2022. Meanwhile, the Russian military has been through multiple mobilisations and force depletion. It may be tempting therefore to assume that the balance of power in this war has shifted decisively to Ukraine and there is little Moscow can do, short of nuclear use, to arrest this. But that’s not what Putin wants us to think. Ben Hall, the FT’s Europe Editor, sums it up thus:
“The destruction of the Kakhovka dam sends a message that Moscow is still capable of escalating its war. The question is how far is it prepared to go. It wants Ukraine and its Western allies to believe it has multiple options left.”
In the comment pages, depression, headaches and mood swings – Suzannah Ramsdale on how the pill ruined her twenties. Courts Correspondent Tristan Kirk gives his advice to Harry: don’t ever annoy the judge. While Dan Kilpatrick urges Daniel Levy and Tottenham fans to be patient with Ange Postecoglou. Good luck with that.
And finally, I don’t know whether it’s that scene from Notting Hill or the Carole King/The Drifters classic ‘Up on the Roof‘ but I love a roof terrace. On that note, here are five secret gardens and London rooftops open for one weekend only.
