Vibes-based analysis is seeminglyall the rage these days. And it can be instructive. You learn lots about how people are feeling (or, at least, claim to be feeling) and that is a valuable metric. But vibes can be misleading and that is before they eventually – and famously – shift.
I'm not at Conservative Party conference but the mood in Birmingham is generally lively. And with good reason. First, the stakes are high, with the leadership election generating understandable excitement. It is also a chance for the many defeated MPs and former SpAds to catch up and possibly nab a directorship at a public affairs agency. As so often, a well-attended wake can be more jolly than a wedding.
This runs counter to the mood in Liverpool last week, where Labour folk were agitated and downbeat.Rows over the winter fuel allowance, the scandal over donations for clothes and whatever internal battle is going on between Sue Gray and the rest of Whitehall dominated events.If one knew nothing else about British politics, one might be forgiven for thinking it was the Tories who had just secured a 160-odd seat majority.
Of course, this would be to ignore human nature. The new Labour government is still very much finding its feet and digesting the scale of the task at hand. Conversely, the Tories must feel as if a huge weight has been lifted after years of tortuous governing. And anyway, fear of defeat is almost always worse than the thing itself.
However, autumn 2025 is likely to be a different matter. There will be no leadership election next year to draw a crowd and drive media interest. Many of those former MPs will have new jobs, perhapseven Jonathan Gullis. A new leader will no doubt be calling for unity, but may ultimately disappoint one faction by courting either Reform UK or Liberal Democrat voters.
Vibes are all well and good. But power is the true political weathervane.
