The UK economy is not in recession but it is stuck in a low-growth trap. GDP in the three months to June registered a 0.2 per cent jump, marking the fifth successive quarter in which the economy has kept its head above water since a 0.5 per cent advance in the first quarter of 2022 — when Britain was still bouncing back from the Covid-19-induced recession.
June was a strong month but our economic performance must be measured by more than single-month or even quarterly figures. The British economy remains smaller today than it was pre-pandemic, while the US is more than five per cent larger. And if inflation fails to fall, higher interest rates may tip the country into recession.
