Last autumn, a family of five beavers was released back into west London as part of the city’s rewilding scheme. If the polls are close to correct, a similar plan may be required for Conservatives in the capital.
An Ipsos MRP survey predicts that Rishi Sunak’s party will win just four seats in London — Orpington; Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner; Romford; and Sutton and Cheam. Compare that to 2019, when the Tories won 20. Yet even four may prove optimistic, with the pollster calling the first three “toss ups”.
The reasons for Conservative struggles in the capital are well worn by this point. More than 14 years into government, the party appears to have all but given up on Londoners, as evidenced by their candidate for mayor. Yet with 75 parliamentary constituencies up for grabs — an increase of two since the last election — the Tories may wonder whether it was wise to effectively leave the field of play to Labour and the Liberal Democrats.
London needs a competitive political landscape, where all parties compete to offer the best policies, not least when it comes to housing, the cost of living and the environment. Those parties must also be comfortable with modern Britain. At present, the Conservatives are travelling — at pace — in the opposite direction. Polls such as these are the inevitable result.
Hollow inflation victory
For the first time in nearly three years, the rate of inflation has hit the two per cent target. This represents a symbolic victory for the Bank of England and ought to provide a boost to the Conservatives. Yet there are plenty of reasons to suspect that, politically speaking, it will make little difference.
First, because few analysts anticipate an interest rate cut tomorrow. But second, because lower inflation cannot undo a prolonged period of double-digit price rises. Ordinary people are still living with the consequences of inflation, as well as higher mortgage costs and taxation.
Today’s data is in reality good news for Sir Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves. An incoming Labour government may inherit deteriorating public finances and public services, but low inflation and soon-to-be falling interest rates will provide some welcome respite.
Campbell’s V&A catwalk
An entire V&A exhibition dedicated to Naomi Campbell? If it’s good enough for David Bowie and Kylie, it’s good enough for Naomi. And as our Fashion Director Victoria Moss discovered, the show “serves as a comprehensive visual history of the fashion industry over the past four decades”. An industry from which she has been indivisible.
