The phoney war is over and the race for City Hall has begun in earnest. In little more than 100 days, Londoners will head to the polls with the effective choice between a third Sadiq Khan term or a first crack for his Tory rival, Susan Hall.
Sporadic polling suggests that Khan will romp to victory. Two surveys in November placed the Mayor on 50 per cent, with Hall on 25 per cent. That is a substantial lead. But writing in today’s Standard, polling expert and Conservative peer Lord Hayward says a Hall victory, while “very difficult”, is not impossible as Khan is weaker than in 2021.
One significant source of uncertainty is the voting system itself. Gone is the supplementary vote of previous elections, replaced by first past the post. Given the number of candidates standing, this means it is not inconceivable that the next mayor could be elected on less than 40 per cent of the vote. This could make it easier for Hall.
What is certain is that the capital is crying out for a proper contest. Not just a clash of personalities but a battle of ideas. From public transport to policing, the cost of living to the Ulez, there is plenty for candidates and voters alike to sink their teeth into.
Inflation shock
There was a sea of red faces in the City this morning as inflation confounded forecasts. December’s Consumer Prices Index rose unexpectedly to four per cent, from 3.9 per cent the previous month, according to the Office for National Statistics. The rise was driven by higher tobacco and alcohol prices which offset falls in food prices.
These figures are likely to put the brakes on excited chatter about a spring interest rate cut, and underline that there is still plenty of hard work to bring inflation back to its two per cent target. Throw in the potential for a regional conflict in the Middle East with disruption to oil supplies and there is still plenty of reason for caution on Threadneedle Street.
Piccadilly pop-up
Two iconic London institutions from different parts of town are coming together to make a little bit of history. For the first time ever, Fortnum & Mason is opening its doors to an outside restaurant as it welcomes east London’s St John for a proper pop-up.
To prevent any feelings of culinary jet lag, St John will be recreated in Piccadilly, so those tucking into their bone marrow and parsley salad can do so in familiar surroundings — albeit in a different postcode. This is shaping up to be the collaboration we didn’t even know we needed.
