To listen to cabinet ministers over the last few months, voters would be forgiven for concluding that the UK economy was plumbing the depths of a great recession and inflation was at double digits. Yet, are things really so bad?
The political calculus for the Prime Minister is obvious. Over-egg the bareness of the economic inheritance and in doing so solidify in the public mind the idea that it is all the Tory’s fault. That way, Labour might hope to escape much of the blame and in time reap the benefit of recovery. This is a tried and tested political strategy to which a new government is entitled to explore. But it comes with risks.
A new Ipsos poll finds that more than half of Britons expect economic conditions to deteriorate over the next 12 months. Falling consumer confidence can contribute to a feedback loop in which businesses, also concerned by the government’s rhetoric, pulls back investment in anticipation of heavy economic weather.
It is understandable why Sir Keir Starmer may feel personally glum. This Labour Party conference - a first in government since 2009 - ought to have been a joyous moment for the Prime Minister and a culmination of years of hard graft, in which he saw off not only Tory leaders but the hard left faction of his party. Instead, the build up has been dominated by arguments over who pays for his clothes and how much his chief of staff, Sue Gray, earns
.Yet perhaps the single greatest difference between government and opposition is that while the latter can only say things, the former can actually do things. Announcing policy for the sake of it is a dangerous ploy. But Sir Keir has an opportunity, bulwarked by a large majority, to set out his vision for the Britain he intends to build. And it should be optimistic. Not because there are no fiscal challenges or the world is not becoming an increasingly dangerous place. But because, after years of economic shocks, voters need to feel there is someone in charge who believes that things will get better and has a credible plan to take the nation to thar destination.
The weather may be grim in Liverpool, as it is in London. But that is no reason for the Prime Minister not to spread a little sunshine. Presumably, as long as it still meets the Chancellor’s fiscal rules.
