If not quite the hand of history, Rishi Sunak surely felt the poke of posterity as he unveiled the “Windsor framework” on Brexit and Northern Ireland yesterday.
His deal with the European Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen — who stood alongside him, lavishly praising “dear Rishi” — was political theatre of high quality indeed.
Only the most churlish would deny that this was Sunak’s finest hour since he became prime minister on October 25, or that — at least for a day — he looked like a serious head of government, advancing the interests of the nation with high-stakes policymaking and complex diplomacy.
The new “green lane” between mainland Britain and Northern Ireland should significantly reduce the bureaucratic burden upon business and close the gap between what is available on supermarket shelves in Belfast and Birmingham. Northern Ireland will no longer be required to follow EU rules on VAT and state subsidies — a remarkable concession coaxed out of Brussels by Sunak.
Most significantly, the Northern Ireland assembly has been granted the so-called “Stormont brake”: the scope, if 30 of its 90 members from at least two parties so decide, to prevent new EU single market rules from applying in the province. But for this mechanism to be meaningful, the Democratic Unionists (the second-largest party in the assembly, behind Sinn Fein) must resume power-sharing, which ceased a year ago as the DUP withdrew in protest at the original Northern Ireland Protocol negotiated by Boris Johnson. It is not yet certain that this will happen, as was graphically illustrated by the furious performance on last night’s Newsnight by Sammy Wilson, the party’s chief whip in the Commons.
More striking, however, was the sheer range of those welcoming Sunak’s deal: from Theresa May, who grappled unsuccessfully as PM with the Northern Ireland question; to David Davis, who resigned in July 2018 as Brexit Secretary over her so-called “Chequers deal”; to Steve Baker, former chair of the “European Research Group” of hardline Brexiteer MPs, who declared of Sunak’s agreement: “I can authentically say — he’s done it’”.
All of which leaves Johnson in a much-reduced political position. Only a few days ago, the former PM was revving up to make another run at the top job, briefing against Sunak and urging the DUP not to be conned by a sell-out to the EU.
It was always Johnson’s belief that he could solve the Northern Ireland conundrum with the sheer force of his charisma, not to mention his brazen readiness to breach international law in the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill introduced to the Commons last June (and, as of yesterday, shelved).
How it must vex the former PM that it is Sunak’s attention to detail, mastery of the brief and technocratic talent that have got the deal over the line. You may remember that, in 2019, Johnson referred to David Cameron as a “girly swot”. One can only imagine the choice phrases he is presently using to describe Sunak.
When (ludicrously) Johnson made a bid in October to return to Number Ten, he had the support of seven Cabinet members. How different his prospects look today. Naturally, he can still snipe, disrupt, and urge the DUP and Tory ultra Brexiteers to oppose the deal when it comes before the Commons. It is still just about conceivable that Sunak could be forced to rely on Labour votes. But today at least, most Tory MPs are desperate to get the deal out of the way and to move on.
Do not lose sight of the overall landscape, still full of potential nightmares for the governing party. On March 15, Jeremy Hunt’s Budget will persist with a tough strategy of fiscal conservatism. In April, fuel bills will go up as the Government’s subsidy is reduced. The wave of strikes continues to bolster the lethal narrative of “broken Britain”.
For all the panache of yesterday’s feelgood political drama, the most recent YouGov opinion poll, six days ago, showed the Conservatives lagging wretchedly on 22 per cent of the vote, far behind Labour on 50 per cent. To avoid disaster at the next election, let alone win, the Tories still require political and economic miracles.
Swathed in the garlands of statesmanship, bursting with pheromones, Sunak has never had a better day. That does not alter the fact that he is still primarily in the business of extinction prevention.
