Rishi Sunak inherited a political position from Liz Truss that was probably hopeless — but if he has any hope at all, he has two. The first hope, which it is not in his gift to control, is that the economy might turn in time and that he might take some of the political credit for that, if there is any. The second hope, which should occupy all his time between now and the general election, is that he starts to use the privilege of office and starts fixing a few problems.
This is more than a demand that the Prime Minister should do something. It is about the definition of a political character. Mr Sunak is a relative novice who is hard to place politically. For the minority of the initiated who have read his Mais Lecture from when he was the chancellor, Mr Sunak is a dry Thatcherite in economics. Quite where he stands on most other issues — apart from Brexit, for which he was a surprising enthusiast — is less clear.
As a consequence, and because time is short, the Prime Minister’s best chance of drawing a political character is to establish himself as the pragmatic man who gets things done. This has the virtue of contrasting him nicely with his ideological predecessor in Truss and the cavalier premier before that, Boris Johnson. It also steals the character sketch that Sir Keir Starmer was planning to draw.
The best thing Mr Sunak has done is to take on the reform of the Northern Ireland protocol. It was a risk, he didn’t need to do it — it involved some internal Tory party shenanigans and there was by no means a guaranteed victory to be won. The latest Redfield Wilton opinion poll had a Labour lead of 26 points so there has clearly been no political dividend as yet for Mr Sunak. But there might be, if he can follow up one success with another. The task is to work out which problem to address next.
The choice appears to be the small boats migrants crisis. Already this year more than 3,000 people have crossed the Channel seeking refuge. The briefing in the weekend newspapers suggested that Mr Sunak will “solve” the problem. Indeed, if he could “solve” such a problem there would be, I am sure, political benefit to be taken. However, the actions mooted so far look like the appearance of doing something rather than actually doing so.
The Home Secretary, Suella Braverman, will today introduce legislation to order the deportation of all those who enter England across the Channel, as if all that were propelling the country towards Britain were the absence of legislation expressly forbidding them from doing so.
In fact, a law to forbid people claiming asylum after crossing the Channel was introduced in 2021 and then once more in 2022. It made no difference then and it will make no difference now. Anyone who enters England successfully across the Channel will, by definition, not be tracked and anyone who is deported and banned for life will simply try again. This is not a problem that can be legislated away.
The solution lies not in Rwanda or at the English border but back at source in the countries from which the migrants are coming. The last 20 years has seen the largest accumulation of refugees the world has ever seen. Britain does not have, per capita, an especially large number seeking entry. The solution to the problem is complex and requires detailed scrutiny, something which, by all accounts, Mr Sunak was able to show in his dealings in Northern Ireland. The Prime Minister will travel to France on Friday to meet President Macron and, although a deal for Britain to start returning people to France is unlikely, it should be possible to agree on further action against people smuggling gangs.
It is in a series of specific deals of this nature, with the European Union and the funding of better refugee facilities closer to conflict zones, that the solution to this problem lies. Rather than posture for the sake of headlines — the effect of which will quickly dissipate as nothing changes — the Prime Minister should make a virtue of the complexity of the question. Difficulty and detail should become his ally. That would contrast very acutely with his own Conservative predecessors and he would be able to contrast the talk of the Opposition with the concerted action of the Government.
It is obviously tempting to go for the easy headline but Mr Sunak’s political character, such as it exists at all, surely demands that he takes the tougher course.
