When David Cameron arrived at the White House on a beautiful spring day in March 2012, President Obama joshed that he was “chuffed to bits” to welcome the British prime minister to Washington. Since then there have been bumps in the road over Syria and Afghanistan, Brexit, trade, and two Cameron successors more interested in lobbing insults at friends and allies than in building good relations.
So this week’s visit by Rishi Sunak matters. Presidents Obama and Biden, and most other Democratic leaders, feared that Brexit would damage the UK, the bilateral relationship, US interests in Europe, and our international standing. For Biden, there was also a personal angle. As an Irish-American Catholic, albeit one with deep English roots, he was warning against the risk of Brexit damaging the Good Friday Agreement even before he was elected president in 2020.
He was delighted when the prime minister negotiated the Windsor Framework as a means of unscrambling the problems of the Northern Ireland Protocol. The president also appreciated the change of tone towards Britain’s neighbours and allies, coinciding with – and helped by – the goodwill towards Britain and the Royal Family generated around the world when the Queen died in September and King Charles was crowned as her successor last month.
The White House say the President will again want to discuss Northern Ireland. But there is much else for the PM to discuss with a president riding high on the back of a deal with Republicans on the debt ceiling and a first term which has generally exceeded expectations. The idea of a comprehensive post-Brexit US/UK free trade agreement – which was never realistic – has now been sensibly shelved, but Rishi Sunak will be pushing back against some of the more protectionist elements of America’s Inflation Reduction Act. The US agenda also includes energy security, climate change, economic links – and of course Ukraine.
All three prime ministers Britain has had since Putin’s illegal invasion last year have been rightly credited with playing a leading role in pressing for maximum diplomatic, economic, humanitarian and military support for Ukraine. The UK may have less available artillery, tanks and aircraft than the United States but Sunak will be keen to help counter any hint of ‘Ukraine fatigue’, amongst either Republicans or Democrats, as the campaign for next year’s presidential elections gathers momentum. As the Ukrainians like to remind us, “we are fighting this war so NATO doesn’t have to.”
No 10 have been briefing that the prime minister wants US support for a UK leadership role in managing the risks posed by Artificial Intelligence - to avoid what 350 global industry leaders called last week "the risk of extinction”. His ideas include a closer public and private sector partnership, a global summit in London in the autumn, and setting up a new regulatory body in Britain.
It won’t be an easy sell, since the EU/US Tech and Trade Council, and Canada, are already active in this space; and Japan is planning a conference of its own during its current presidency of the G7. But there isn’t time to lose if responsible political and business leaders are to ensure that AI remains a servant of humanity, not its master or a means for tyrants and organised criminals to undermine our lives, democracy and prosperity.
No doubt the president and PM will also want to discuss managing relations with China, and perhaps recent developments in the Middle East. It would be good if they could look at ways of helping the Afghan people after our chaotic withdrawal almost two years ago, and working with others to ensure Afghanistan does not again become a playground for terrorist groups and drug smugglers that threaten us all.
Sometimes history is made more by personal relationships than by the exchange of detailed policy papers. This may be a short visit but it is an important one.
