Let's face it, yesterday's newsletter was something of a downer. You wanted to enjoy the warmest day of the year with a Cornetto and Aperol Spritz but instead you were greeted with 500 words on energy efficiency and access to low-cost finance. So let's make it up today, with the dopamine hit of American political horse race journalism.
And no need to delay any further: Kamala Harris is winning. According to a New York Times/Siena poll, the Vice President and presumptive Democratic nominee leads Donald Trump in three key swing states. Amongst likely voters, Harris enjoys a four-point advantage in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. All three voted for Barack Obama in 2012, Donald Trump in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020. They are the ballgame.
Previously, that same poll found Trump led Joe Biden by a point or two in these must-win states. So this is a sudden and fairly dramatic shift. And it is not difficult to pinpoint why. In the space of a few days in July, Biden – whom many Americans had not unreasonably determined was too old run for a second term – was replaced by his much younger (and more cogent) vice president.
Nate Cohn, The New York Times' chief political analyst, attributes this poll bounce to the fact that Harris – despite her historic candidacy – is a close to a generic candidate. We covered this concept in a previous newsletter about Susan Hall, but essentially generic candidates almost always outperform actual politicians, because voters can project their hopes and ideals onto them.
Harris currently enjoys a rare but potentially priceless combination of near-perfect name recognition while also being largely undefined. If done right, this will enable Harris to sidestep unpopular Biden policies such as on inflation and the border. Of course, the downside risk of being a blank canvass is it affords your opponents a chance to paint you in a negative light.
Trump is adept at hammering away at an adversary's already widely understood weakness. Hillary Clinton was, fairly or not, considered untrustworthy by millions of Americans, so she was "crooked". Joe Biden was seen as old, so he was "sleepy". Yet Trump still appears to be in shock (or perhaps, denial) over Biden's decision to step down, and has thus far struggled to define Harris in a way that might strike a chord with persuadable voters. Instead, he's spent the past few weeks making bizarre and offensive comments about her ethnicity.
Some health warnings at this point. Just because Harris is leading in the polls today, does not mean she will win in November. The vice president is no leftist, but she is a liberal from California who has a record of doing and saying liberal California things which some voters will find off-putting. Meanwhile, there are a host of unknowns, any of which could tip a tight contest, from a disastrous convention to the widening of wars in Europe and the Middle East.
But none of this changes what has been a quite remarkable chapter of history. Less than a month ago, Biden was the Democratic candidate and he was probably going to lose. Today, Harris is the presumptive nominee, has energised a beleaguered party and is now a narrow favourite. Sure, there could yet be an October surprise. But it would have to be pretty astonishing to outdo the Aaron Sorkin-esque events of the last few weeks.
