In a 1966 article for Newsweek, the American economist Paul Samuelson famously quipped that "the stock market had predicted nine out of the last five recessions." He was of course exaggerating but nevertheless had a point: Wall Street is simply dreadful at forecasting the future.
A similar disease afflicts Westminster. Political pundits have breathlessly pronounced a general election would be held in the spring, summer and autumn of this year or even January 2025, i.e. the last possible moment. This is because the government has a bizarre habit of teasing the prospect of an election – or at least failing to immediately shut speculation down – before ultimately ruling it out.
I mean, it was only last week that the prime minister appeared on ITV's Loose Women, during which he assured panel and viewers alike that they could safely book their summer holidays. Would he really quite so brazenly mislead the doyennes of day time television?
Even prior to Prime Minister's Questions, election fever seemed to have an R number in the thousands. Then, when Scottish National Party Westminster leader Stephen Flynn asked Rishi Sunak to confirm or deny his intention to hold a summer election, the prime minister replied coyly:
“Spoiler alert there is going to be a general election in the second half of this year.” Graduates of kindergarten will note that the second half of the year runs the gamut from July to December. In other words, not a denial.
Now, non-denials are useful, indeed often necessary in politics. The short-term cost of appearing evasive can be more than outweighed by longer-term strategic benefits, not least when you're attempting to keep a fractious parliamentary party together. But we've been here before with Sunak, and if there is to be no election announcement this afternoon, it is difficult to understand what advantage the prime minister seems to think he is gaining by floating the idea.
The reason to go to the country now (side note: we are 4.5 years into this parliament – no election could accurately be described as 'early' at this point) are well worn: today may be as good as it gets. Iinflation has fallen to near-target but dreams of multiple interest rate cuts appear to be fading. As our Business Editor Jonathan Prynn put it: get it over with and call an election — the economy won't look any better by November.
Consider which is more likely: an old fashioned 'come and have a go if you think you're hard enough' general election announcement in Downing Street (69 per cent chance of rain at 5pm according to BBC Weather) or yet another example of Sunak marching his allies, proxies and enemies up the hill, only to deny any elevation had been gained and make an announcement instead about a conference on artificial intelligence?
Furthermore, in the absence of any hard evidence, does this feel somewhat reminiscent of the evening of Saturday 4 May, when a few people on Twitter/X got very excited that Susan Hall may be about to win the London mayoral election, despite no votes having been so much as counted? And yet, this time does feel different.
To quote another great mid-20th century thinker, former New York Yankees manager Yogi Berra, "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future". And a 4pm newsletter send time is a heck of a hostage to fortune at this point with no plausible upside. So I'll end with this:
The cabinet is meeting at 4.15pm. David Cameron has cut short his trip from Albania. Grant Shapps has delayed his visit to the Baltics. Jeremy Hunt has cancelled his appearance on Peston. And Number 10 won't answer questions. If it's not an election announcement, it a curious way to run a media operation, let alone a country.
