In a 1966 article for Newsweek, the American economist Paul Samuelson famously quipped that "the stock market had predicted nine out of the last five recessions." He was of course exaggerating but nevertheless had a point: Wall Street is simply dreadful at forecasting the future.
A similar disease afflicts Westminster. Political pundits have breathlessly pronounced a general election would be held in the spring, summer and autumn of this year or even January 2025, i.e. the last possible moment. This is because the government has a bizarre habit of teasing the prospect of an election – or at least failing to immediately shut speculation down – before ultimately ruling it out.
